Situation in Algeria
To victims of the conflict of the Algerian authorities and Islamic resistance (carried away about 40 thousand lives) yesterday has increased 100 more revolts killed at suppression in prison Serkadzhi for Islamites. The country is on the threshold today of civil war. If it yet perejden.
Blossoming of Algeria - on oil and gas export - has had on the end 70 - h years. The country and now wins first place in the OPEC on gas manufacture. Oil, truth, daily extract only 750 thousand barrels (compare to Saudi Arabia: 8 million). Profits on export could not use effectively for economy reconstruction. The crisis aggravation in second half 80 - h has coincided with falling of the prices for oil. The present political chaos originates in 1992 when the army cancelled results of the first round of elections in view of an obvious victory of Islamites. The higher state council (VGS) has been formed, president Shadli Bendzhadid is displaced. Reprisals have begun.
the country the generals operate. The army elite at times puts forward slogans of a national unification, but they are perceived as propagation. The problem of military men - to be kept at state treasury. They dispose of raw export (volume of $8 mlrd), the financial help to the country. Mohammed Bodiaf became head VGS at first. But it was necessary to it to interfere with financial frauds of generals as it have cleaned.
today ($26 mlrd) it is necessary to pay for service of an external debt more than brings oil export. 27 % of the active population - without work. And population grows promptly: it has already exceeded 27 million (that three times more than 30 years ago). Thus deficiency of the grain has in the last two days grown in 8 times, and purchases of grain by Algeria make 20 % of all world import.
the country lives today under IMF dictatorship, fulfilling its requirements. Last year the IMF credit stand - by ($1 mlrd) and a delay of payment of a debt have been received in an exchange only on dinar devaluation on 40 %, the obligation to liberalise foreign trade and to carry out privatisation (these days it is declared creation of the ministry of privatisation). Similar tractability has deserved a praise: Michel Kamdessju named Algeria the sample for other countries. Moreover from France Algeria receives in a category of credit to $1,1 mlrd in a year. This year allocation to Algeria the French commercial banks of the credit in $4,5 billion Government is discussed applies on bolshee. But, seemingly, to these hopes it is not fated to come true: instability causes the increasing concern of the West. A situation basically traditional for transitive economy: market reforms strengthen social intensity. In Algeria it was imposed on Islamic fundamentalism. Accurate following to IMF recipes has led in the short-range plan to deterioration of position of the population. Among youth unemployment reaches 56 %. And these people leave in insurgents. The basis Islamic to resistance just also is made by young men to 30. It it nothing to lose.
Today Islamic insurgents supervise a considerable part of the territory of the country, all North is captured by guerrilla war. The most irreconcilable wing of Islamic fundamentalists - the Armed Islamic group (VIG) - declared to a ruling mode jihad. However, in the ranks of opposition on - former the Islamic front of rescue (IFS) tries to play the leading part. It consists appreciably from natsional - intellectuals and tries and to act as consolidating force of opposition, and to adjust dialogue with the authorities. IFS recently participated in a meeting of the Algerian political groups in Rome. There the agreement between IFS and National emancipating front - a democratic wing of opposition has been entered into, is accepted the document declaring political pluralism, division of the authorities and a freedom of worship. It is a step forward in comparison with former position IFS. But here military men on the compromise do not go. And opposition numbers are completely not uniform: two basic armed groups - VIG and Islamic salvation army (armed wing IFS) have rejected the Roman arrangements. Terrorists on - former kill foreigners, intellectuals, make other acts of terrorism. To it the problem is added also berberskaja. Berbera (is more exact, kabily) always differed independence, and at their all authorities subjected to discrimination. Standing up for own autonomy, berbery simultaneously oppose Islamites and already create self-defence groups. It seems that in Algeria civil war inflames. And the government not in forces to prevent it.
GEORGE - BOVT, VALERY - SYCHEV