The European banks not against weak dollarthe financial market
Yesterday the Bank of England has lifted discount rate on 0,25 % - to 4 %. Simultaneously the European central bank (ETSB) has decided to leave it without changes, at level of 2 %. Each bank solves the problems: one struggles with inflation, and another stimulates economic growth. To the American dollar in this struggle it is assigned a part the outsider.
sessions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England following the results of which discount rates should be defined yesterday have come to the end. The first has announced the decision Bank of England - the rate has been raised on 25 basic points to 4 %. ETSB acted a bit later and remained it is true to itself - the rate remained invariable, at level of 2 %. Such outcome was predicted also the day before by experts. So small reaction to it was observed only in the currency market where the euro and pound have grown up to dollar on 0,1 - 0,3 %.
For Bank of England it already the second increase of the rate for last four months. Thus tone of statements of committee-men of bank gives the grounds to believe that increase of rates will be continued. Under forecasts of economists, by the end of this year discount rate will reach to 5 %. To increases of the rate the Bank of England is pushed by inflation threat. “ the increase in volume of consumer credits and a rise in prices for real estate can create problems in the future “ - analysts of bank declare. A situation in Europe the opposite. Here think not of rate increase, and about its decrease. Inflation, and absence of economic growth excites not. “ even if ETSB the economy to an increase in the exchange-value of the euro it should not be indifferent " does not interest; - economist Natexis Banques Populaires Mark Tuati has declared.
From the economic point of view there is an interesting situation. In England where rates raise, gross national product in the fourth quarter 2003 has grown on 0,9 %. In the USA of gross national product in the fourth quarter only 1 % has grown on 4 %, but there the rate, and about probability of its increase it is necessary to guess only. Thus the eurozone with the rate of 2 % in the third quarter 2003 has shown very modest gain of gross national product - 0,3 %.
In these days off there will pass a meeting of ministers of countries G7. Judging by statements of Europeans, they hope to convince the USA of unacceptability of the further growth of an euro exchange rate to dollar. Remains not clear as technically they can provide it, considering unwillingness ETSB to reduce discount rate. After all anybody seriously does not consider possibility of carrying out of joint interventions. FRS the USA led by Alan Grinspenom also will not raise the rate for the sake of dollar exchange rate strengthening. “ if the European politicians wait for the international participation in operation on rescue of euro from excessive increase they are mistaken “ - analyst Capital Economics Martin Esseks considers. Means, ETSB it is necessary to make independently a choice between inflation and economy growth.
ALEXEY - BAJBAKOV