The rouble exchange rate becomes more flexiblethe Central Bank will look not only behind dollar, but also for euro
the currency market
Yesterday the vice-president of the Central Bank Konstantin Korishchenko has sounded the new course policy of Bank of Russia. The rouble exchange rate will be traced now not only in relation to dollar, but also to euro that will sharply raise volatilnost a dollar exchange rate in Russia. It should increase appeal of rouble to the population, and the currency market - for speculators.
yesterday at conference “ the Analysis of influence of an euro exchange rate on the Russian economy: prospects kursoobrazovanija in home market “ bankers and stockbrokers discussed the situation which has developed with the all-European currency in Russia. Influence of euro on national economy has grown, but by the exchange market of it is absolutely not appreciable. On the contrary, according to the general director of the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange Alexander Potyomkin, since 1999 the euro share in volume of the auctions did not exceed 3 %, and this year has decreased and at all to 1 %. Thus in the interbank market a share of transactions rouble - the dollar makes 75 - 80 %, and almost all other transactions have on conversion operations of euro - dollar.
these facts became one of the reasons of working out of a new course policy of the Central Bank considering dynamics of an euro exchange rate in the international market. Yesterday the vice-president of the Central Bank Konstantin Korishchenko has publicly presented for the first time this new policy. As he said, the Bank of Russia for the purpose of objective tracing of dynamics of a rouble exchange rate to a basket of world currencies will count bivaljutnyj an index. Its formula - “ geometrical average courses of the basic foreign currencies to rouble “. In a basket of currencies, as appears from the index name while the euro and dollar will enter only. Thus at the first stage the euro share will be, according to mister Korishchenko, nearby 10 - 20 %, that is is close to volume of operations with the all-European currency in the interbank market. However subsequently the euro share can be increased to 50 %.
Sense of the given innovation for the Central Bank participants of the market see on - to a miscellaneous. “ possibly, they want to show big integrirovannost in world economy, the general tendencies in the world market will not avoid us “ - the chief of department of conversion operations BIN - bank Michael Parasenko considers. Technically it means that at dollar exchange rate strengthening to euro as it occurs now, the dollar exchange rate to rouble will become stronger also if not diligence of participants of the market, by means of Central Bank interventions.
as a result volatilnost an euro exchange rate to rouble will decrease, and first of all at the expense of increase volatilnosti a dollar exchange rate to rouble. Such policy, according to mister Korishchenko, assumes that in the market there will be no fixed level of support of the Central Bank during the day. Thus new bivaljutnyj the index will show successes of the Central Bank on performance of this policy.
These innovations can lead to necessity of creation of new tools of hedging of currency risk. According to Alexander Potyomkin, the market of urgent tools will extend. Raised volatilnost a dollar exchange rate will stimulate the population more actively to use rouble as the basic means of accumulation and savings. And banks as financial intermediaries, will receive the new market. The dealers interrogated yesterday said that now in the market will be “ more cheerfully “. “ Game on a rouble exchange rate to dollar will be comparable with game on an euro exchange rate to dollar. Spreads will increase, the commission of banks becomes more “ - the chief of department of conversion operations Metallinvestbanka Sergey Romanchuk considers.
Terms of introduction of a new policy precisely are not defined. Though representatives of the Central Bank expect that she will earn in May, but already yesterday the Russian currency market actually lived by new rules. After dollar exchange rate growth in the world market its course to rouble has got stronger. Yesterday in second half of day for dollar gave already more than 28,6 rbl. “ Today euro oslab concerning dollar for percent. Has accordingly reacted to it and rouble. And increase on Monday of level of purchase of the Central Bank is an additional signal to the market “ - the head of department of trading operations of Guta - bank Yury Petrovich has declared.
ALEXEY - BAJBAKOV