Yeltsin anniversary: from a dark towards to it there is an inspired magicianon June, 11th, on an outcome of the first year of Yeltsin presidency, the former state adviser Sergey Shahraj has acted in new quality of the state magician and has predicted to the prophetic president that most later in half a year it will accept political death from the nearest environment.
Sklonnost Shahraja to prophecies explain two circumstances: the unstable situation which has developed in the Russian management when competing groupings try to break it to own advantage sharp public demarches, and sharply amplified on the eve of a number of summits export orientirovannostju the Russian policy, that is aspiration to involve the West in struggle of the Russian political clans.
Last movings to the cabinet have disturbed many, and almost all participants of a game of politics have hastened to make sharp statements, aspiring “ to blow up a situation “. All were surpassed by Sergey Shahraj. On June, 11th it has given exclusive interview to Reuters agency in which has informed on Yeltsin`s deviation from a way of reforms, about strong pressure upon Yeltsin from real owners of the country - that is the local nomenclature and VPK, and has predicted fast (during half a year) Yeltsin`s falling. According to Shahraja, for this purpose it is not required any revolution and the president will displace in especially constitutional way: will carp at any illegal decree, will receive the appropriate decision of the Constitutional court (KS), then will collect next (December) or even extraordinary congress and declare impeachment. Then the nominal president becomes Rutsky, and the real lord - the oligarchy consisting from military - industrial generals, parliamentary heads and a part of local leaders. De facto the former system with collective leadership in a kind quasi - the Political bureau will be restored, and any new structures for this purpose it is not necessary to create: a fine half-finished product of the future of the Political bureau is, in opinion eks - vitse - a premiere, the present board of the government consisting of Yeltsin, Burbulisa and all vitse - prime ministers. SHahraj has informed, what exactly this sad prospect has induced it to resign, that, having left from the power, not to be involved in political killing of the president.
in general - that in a case with resignation of a special choice at Shahraja and so was not: to obey to the hated chief of Presidential Administration Yury Petrov the former head GPU for what did not want. But now, thanks to a courageous prophecy, resignation ex post facto turns from the natural ending of municipal squabble to the certificate of the higher civilisation, and Shahraj - in Shevardnadze N2, saving the world by means of terrible preventions of approaching accident.
the sense of game can be understood if to consider that outwardly the startler of Shahraja at more attentive analysis appears not absolutely correct in details. KS will not necessarily resignedly draw the conclusion necessary for dismissal of Yeltsin. The congress eternally working on the verge of quorum, hardly will collect 2/ 3 voices necessary for impeachment. At last, Rutsky will not manage to cover long with itself oligarchy as in case of resignation of the president will fulfil its duties only three months, and then under the Constitution there should be new elections. And plausible statements from a startler are rather banal. Sharp correction of a course, for example, - practically always result of strong pressure. That for pressure could (as in due time with Gorbachev) to be used the strong threats which have predetermined precipitancy in change of a course, too it is quite plausible. But as Shahraj has explained that is guided not by the information, and the intuition, new in its axiomatic intuitivistskih finds it is a little. The main nail of sensation - idea that failure of stabilisation operation is fraught also with political death of the leader who has broken it, and transition from economic to military - to political means of stabilisation - especially is politological truism. Moreover, if stabilisation breaks, discussion of what means - constitutional or not quite constitutional - after half a year will eliminate Yeltsin, looks enough scholastic theme for conversation.
therefore prophecies of Shahraja are of interest not in itself, but only in a context of future meetings of Yeltsin with leaders of the West (Washington, then Munich).
Analogy with last year`s maloudachnoj Gorbachev`s trip to London on meeting G7 at all on lips: began a platitude to assert that actual refusal in the help has ruined Gorbachev still then, that is in June that August and December, 1991 were only logic continuation of June fiasco, and that if in 1991 for Gorbachev at least there was Yeltsin today for Yeltsin there is an emptiness. On such background quite by the way to play a double combination. In - the first to remind fluctuating between Westerners and military - industrialists to Yeltsin, than Gorbachev`s similar fluctuations have come to an end, and to induce to the vigorous activity on own rescue - Shahraj has stated wishes, that Yeltsin, for example, personally punched in VS the Russian Federation badly laws necessary for it on the government and on bankruptcy instead of being engaged in harmless Gorbachev`s foolish persecution. In - the second that the belief went more successfully, Shahraj obviously wants to frighten the western leaders, which from perepuga will agitate Yeltsin to be more resolute. It is probable, for this reason on June, 11th Shahraj with some voluptuousness told to Japanese that will answer them Rutsky the request to return Kuriles. Fervour and persistence eks - vitse - a premiere are clear: the president, in its opinion, senselessly meets half-way own destruction, and Shahraju is a pity if not Yeltsin, anyway itself who still have been too closely connected with the former cartridge.
the new courageous statement changes business as Shahraj appears on a game at all outcomes of party. Or Yeltsin vnemlet to a word true oruzhenostsa - and then position of a command of Gaydar is restored, and semidisgraced Shahraj becomes again “ the person approached to the Sovereign to the Emperor “. Or Yeltsin does not react and obstinately meets half-way destruction - then Shahraj becomes the Russian Cassandra who has got thanks to marvellous gift the prophet the independent political capital.
ALEXEY - KIRPICHNIKOV, MAXIM - SOKOLOV