mnogogolovoe gidroConsolidation of hydropower actives gives to stock market a paper - the candidate in “ blue counters “ - GidroOGK. However opacity of new structure does perspectivity of similar investments inconvenient an estimation.
have been attached on January, 9th, 2008 to GidroOGK of 20 affiliated and dependent societies that, as a matter of fact, has led to occurrence of the largest player in the Russian market of electric power industry with the established capacity 23 GVt (bolshej capacity the Rosenergoatom enterprises - an order 24 GVt will possess only). Into structure GidroOgK will not enter Only Krasnoyarsk and Boguchansky HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION (last still is under construction and will cope on an equal footing GidroOGK and the aluminium enterprises).
Earlier in the market actions of separate hydroelectric power stations which were insufficiently liquid addressed and were taken frequently for the purpose of the subsequent converting in shares of GidroOGK. As analysts consider, papers of GidroOGK are quite capable to become new “ blue counters “. Consolidation of hydropower actives, let and under state control (to it will belong 51 % of shares of company) as experts expect, should lead to growth of their cost in relation to cumulative cost of parts of the new company. “ we expect that capitalisation of GidroOGK will surpass total capitalisation of joint-stock company - the HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION, entered into its structure in connection with growth of scales of business and liquidity “ - the analyst of YOKES " speaks; Antanta PioGlobal “ Feodor Kornachev. In January - February consolidation of the basic actives should be finished, then actions of the hydropower company will get on a stock exchange.
in favour of company prospects tells first of all its advantage before the companies of thermal generation from the point of view of the electric power cost price. In structure of expenses of GidroOGK there is no fuel component which reaches at the thermal companies 50 - 60 %. Besides it the hydrogenerating company can save on expenses for the personnel and repair in view of low specific number of employees and relative simplicity of the used equipment.
Besides, GidroOGK will have a possibility to receive additional incomes in the market of system services which should earn till the end of 2008. HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATIONS, unlike TES and the atomic power station, can operatively increase or lower electric power development, reacting to differences in a network, without damage to technical and economic efficiency. It also should raise economic efficiency of the company.
thus productivity of GidroOGK will gradually increase, strengthening its market positions. As a result of realisation of the investment program the established capacity of the company should grow till 2020 in two with superfluous time. The main projects till 2010 - completion of Burejsky HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION, building of Boguchansky HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION and small HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATIONS in the North Caucasus. Further HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION building in new industrial klasterah - Southern Yakutia, Buryatiya, the Magadan area, and also in Evenkii is planned.
At the same time analysts considerably disperse in company estimation of cost. So, Feodor Kornachev results figure $29 of billion Analyst of Bank of Moscow Dmitry Skvortsov believes that company capitalisation will make about $13,5 billion Estimation of an analyst of the share centre “ Linvest “ Rushana Zaripova - $15,3 billion
are so ambiguous opinions concerning growth of stock quotes of the company after their occurrence at a stock exchange. First of all it is connected with too optimistical estimation of prospects of the generating companies last year therefore their actions have appeared are strongly overestimated in comparison with settlement fair costs.
it is valid, demand for the electric power in the country huge, the economy intensively develops that demands additional power capacities. Plus to that during the nearest three - is expected four years full liberalisation of the market of the electric power that will make the prices market, and investments into branch even more attractive.
but if to pay attention to financial indicators of the company which finally have crucial importance for minority shareholders optimism disappears.
“ following the results of 2007 the consolidated gain of GidroOGK, by our estimations, will make $1,2 - 1,5 mlrd, and profit - $200 - 250 million, - tells Rushan Zaripov. - On the average animator P/ S at the large Russian companies with 15 - 20 - percentage profitability on net profit makes 1 - 1,5 “. Thus, the gain of GidroOGK should grow approximately in 10 times for achievement of average value that, of course, will occur, but not earlier than through five - seven years, the analyst considers.
“ it is difficult enough to estimate now company cost, - the head of analytical management of Sobinbank Tigran Oganesyan speaks. - proceeding from cost of the western analogues the company should cost an order of $30 mlrd, to the Russian measures cost should make an order $14 billion However scales of expenses within the limits of the declared investment program call into question into any estimations “.
The matter is that totally performance of the investment program till 2020 can demand to $65 mlrd investments. Taking into account dearness of building of HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION and predicted EBITDA at level 100 mlrd rbl. it is possible to tell with confidence that the free monetary stream from company activity will appear negative. The disturbing parametre of the new investment program is also its high specific cost - $3 thousand for 1 kw of the installed capacity.
as a matter of fact, taking into account incessant process of building and input of new capacities it can give “ zero “ company cost. “ yes, the company is very interesting taking into account rich resources of renewed energy. But how it will involve minority investors, promising return unless to their grandsons? “ - Tigran Oganesyan asks a question.
we will notice that financing of projects is offered to be conducted at the expense of the money received from sale by a share of the state in thermal generation, extra means and state budget means. What will be shares of these sources in investment program financing while it is not clear that too confuses analysts.
the picture with final buyers of new energy is not clear also. “ If the question concerning Boguchansky, Burejsky and HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION in the south of Russia even more or is less clear, concerning all other HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATIONS at us such confidence is not present, - Tigran Oganesyan speaks. - HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION building is economically proved only in the presence of heavy users near generation “.
Despite all doubts, analysts all - taki assume that during two - three months after an exit on a stock exchange of the action of GidroOGK can show a growth trend that justifies short-term investments.
“ I think, in the company will take steps for increase of investment appeal, - Tigran Oganesyan believes. - in particular, the publication of the report with favorable enough current financial indicators " is expected;.
“ Growth can be caused desire or necessity at investors to have in the portfolio liquid actions, but subsequently quotations can enter into a long lateral trend “ - warns Rushan Zaripov.
Optsionnaja the program for management of GidroOGK on which 2 % of the increased authorised capital stock of the company will be directed, should allow to managers to raise stimulus capitalisation and efficiency of the company. However present statement of a question on capital expenses while speaks more likely about the return.
the saved up cost
“ Rosneft “ last Wednesday has published financial results for the third quarter. It is the first reporting considering all actives got by a state company of YUKOS, therefore it represented a great interest for investors.
their expectations have been with interest satisfied. So, following the results of nine months 2007 “ Rosneft “ has received almost $10 mlrd net profit, having shown a gain in relation to 2006 more than three times. The company gain has increased by 30 %.
Growth of profitableness of operations first of all has been caused by oil refining increase (in the third quarter jukosovskie NPZ already have been completely integrated in “ Rosneft “) . In particular, for nine months 2007 manufacture of oil products has made 26,32 million tons that on 56 % exceeds an indicator of the corresponding period of previous year. The prices for oil for this period also have helped the company (quotations Urals for nine months have grown almost in one and a half time, having exceeded $75 for barrel). Oil recovery too has grown, but is not so considerable: on 19,6 %.
However, the market did not manage to use so impressing results. The negative in foreign markets in day of an exit of news has led to falling of quotations of the majority of emitters (RTS index has fallen to 4,96 %). Besides, the day before blow under quotations “ Rosneft “ has put Citigroup which in the first working week of January has sold a large share holding of the Russian state company (about 1 % of an authorised capital stock). Thus actions were on sale on 3,9 % below market price. As a result on Friday, on January, 11th, actions “ Rosneft “ have fallen more than to 2 %.
Nevertheless potential of growth of quotations “ Rosneft “ on positive news it is not realised yet, and investors can count on attractive dynamics of quotations of the oil company in the near future.
“ to wait “ a shot “ from papers “ Rosneft “ I think, it is not necessary owing to a negative external background, - analyst IK " believes; Veles the Capital “ Dmitry Ljutjagin. - However with change of an external conjuncture from these papers it is possible to expect good results, and in the near future “ Rosneft “ will look more preferable than other companies of sector “.
we Will notice that such scenario is especially probable that in the first quarter of current year of analytics expect pleasant echoes of acquisition of actives of YUKOS. Well and the intermediate term driver for quotations “ Rosneft “ There should be a strategy of the company which, predictably, will be published the next months. The prompt repayment of the debts formed at " will be a part of this strategy, on - visible; Rosneft “ at acquisition of actives of YUKOS. The sum of debts exceeds $28 mlrd, however, under the messages which have appeared last week, their considerable part ($11 mlrd) will be extinguished by September, 2008.
a New Year`s roundabout
last week the largest Russian retail company X5 Retail Group declared intention to realise an option for purchase of a network of hypermarkets “ the Roundabout “. X5 has already begun estimation procedure (due diligence) purchases. The transaction price will depend on the consolidated sales “ Roundabouts “ it EBITDA, estimations of the ground areas and a debt of company Formata operating a network “ the Roundabout “.
By separate estimations, option realisation will manage Õ5 in the sum from $900 million to $1,1 billion contract Execution on an option can take place not later than July, 1st, 2008 or after three months from the moment of reception X5 Retail Group audirovannyh the consolidated results of activity Formata for 2007.
purchase “ Roundabouts “ corresponds to strategy of development Õ5 both at the expense of organic growth, and at the expense of acquisitions nishevyh and local players. In particular, last week Õ5 declared purchase 31 shops of the step-by-step availability, entering into the Moscow network “ Dejli “.
“ Having bought “ the Roundabout “ Õ5 will receive not only a good increase to a gain, - analyst IFK " specifies; Alemar “ Ekaterina Struchkova. - Under forecasts, it adds 16 % to gain Õ5 for 2007, and at the same time diversifies a portfolio of formats “. Now at “ Roundabouts “ Approximately 30 hypermarkets, whereas at Õ5 - only 13. As a result the transaction will allow Õ5 to increase sales on 8 - 10 % that should affect positively dynamics of actions ritejlera in intermediate term prospect, especially considering that in the autumn at it delay of growth of a gain was observed.