On all will not sufficeBarrel Siberian Light with delivery in ports of the Western Europe yesterday cost $70,43. The barrel of mark Brent in New York read off scale last week for $75. The adviser of the Russian president Igor Shuvalov has admitted yesterday that in a case American - the Iranian conflict of the price for oil in the world market can fly up and to $100. And the end to this epoch “ mad oil “ it is not expected: according to the International power agency, in 2007 - 2008 from - for a lack of investments into oil extracting the growing demand for oil will not be satisfied completely. As the chief executive of agency Claude Mandil at a recent power forum in the Fur-coat has declared, to 2015 demand for oil will grow former rates, despite all attempts to save fuel and to develop alternative energy sources.
the concept “ power power “ on this background looks especially pertinent. Whether but Russia will suffice oil money that that on velikoderzhavie, and even is simple on comfortable life? The Russian power power cannot be steady in long-term prospect, Vladimir Milov, the president of Institute of a power policy considers. “ in the world there are only four successful oil states which could achieve that gross national product per capita at par purchasing capacity (PPS) made more $20 thousand the Main property of these countries that there is not enough the population “ - Milov last week at session has declared debate - club of Association of the independent centres of the economic analysis, taken place on economic faculty of the Moscow State University. In one of these countries (Norway, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar) the population does not exceed 5 million persons. Even in Saudi Arabia where lives about 27 million persons, podushevoj gross national product on PPS much more low - about $13 thousand Though in Russia large supplies of gas and oil in absolute sizes are concentrated, however, by calculations of Milova, today export of hydrocarbons per capita makes of Russia only three tons of an oil equivalent a year. At the present prices it hardly is more than $80 a month. “ having almost 150 million population, to try to be Kuwait or Norway it the crime is not simple, it is an error “ - Vladimir Milov summarises.
However, and absolute sizes of our oil reserves should not calm. Certainly, experts of the World bank predict Russia the light oil future. According to recent report VB, even at reduction of prices on oil by 2030 to $40 for barrel and the correct order means stabfonda (that is at their investment in securities) the size of fund will make from $1,47 trln to $2,29 bln. It approximately twice more size of current gross national product of Russia and from 29 % to 43 % of predicted gross national product of the country for 2030. But it if to put only in securities, and after all it would be desirable to construct still roads, schools, hospitals. And so, according to the governmental transport strategy, in transport sphere of the country it is necessary to invest every year on $20 mlrd, and so till 2010. In the budget only for 2006 is planned to allocate about $40 mlrd for payment of state employees, pensions, grants and other payments to the population. The external debt of Russia makes now (after all preschedule payments) $87 billion
On this background current volume stabfonda - about $60 mlrd - looks the disappearing small size. And it not to mention that, according to the Ministry of Finance, we stabfond makes about 7 % of gross national product while stabfond Norway - 70 % of gross national product of the country. Besides, among experts on - former there are discussions, whether Russia can export further hydrocarbons in present volumes. After all the Russian economy grows and consequently consumes more and more fuel as by power efficiency occupies one of last places in the world.
theorists “ power velikoderzhavija “ say that Russia and should not live on only one incomes of export of hydrocarbons: superprofits should become a basis for economy development as a whole. While signs of this development it is not visible. In the report “ Economy of Russia: results 2005 and expectations of 2006 “ analysts IB “ the Trust “ notice that last year the volume of the Russian export grew faster import volume only in price expression - at the expense of an oil rise in price. In real expression rates of increase of export have made 5,6 % a year. On the contrary, the import which is urged on by increase of incomes of Russians, in real expression has grown on 16,2 %. At preservation of this trend, have counted up in “ the Trust “ And at constant prices of oil of balance of foreign trade will decrease almost to zero in three years. If oil becomes cheaper, by 2008 Russia will face negative balance of foreign trade. If in such conditions of the Central Bank will try to keep a rouble exchange rate by currency interventions gold and exchange currency reserves begin to decrease as promptly as now increase.