Rus News Journal

The financial forecast

the Oil market has not justified expectations
Event in the oil market have not justified expectations of the majority of participants of the Russian stock market. On Thursday past week after the countries - exporters (OPEC) declared reduction of extraction of oil on 3,6 %, oil of mark Brent has added in the price of $1,29, but soon the enthusiasm of traders has run low, and the prices for oil futures have spread downwards. Under the same scenario the situation and in the Russian share market developed. Last working day of week many investors have preferred to fix profit. As a result RTS index has stopped at a mark of 1630 points. This week the interrogated experts predict share market growth. RTS index, in their opinion, will aspire to level 1650 - 1670 points. but in this range the index can encounter strong enough resistance and if it will not have not enough forces it to overcome, considerable recoil downwards " is rather probable; - the analyst of the investment company " warns; Neva - Invest Vadim Dvorjaninov.
According to a leading analyst of analytical management PSB of Alexey Zajtseva to define dynamics of the domestic market till the end of current year there will be two key factors. The first - the decision of the OPEC on reduction of volume of oil recovery since November, 1st on 1,2 million barrels a day with possible additional reduction of extraction for 0,5 million barrels a day in December. The second factor of growth - seasonal lifting of demand for fuel. seasonal growth of demand for oil against reduction of its extraction of the OPEC is capable to cause a rise in prices to fundamentally fair level of $71,5 for barrel on the end of the year on grade WTI - mister Zajtsev predicts. He is assured that growth of the world prices for oil will make positive impact on quotations of papers Russian neftjanki which share in RTS index exceeds 50 %, and, as consequence, will cause renewal of growth of the Russian share market. fundamentally fair level on RTS index at present makes 2107 points. In case of achievement by the prices for oil of our look-ahead levels growth of the market to fundamentally fair level " is probable; - expert PSB believes.
it is possible to be protected by Savings Bank papers
Dynamics of the oil prices uncertain enough, they already for a long time fluctuate round a mark of $60 for barrel, the role of other factors " will amplify therefore; - mister Dvorjaninov believes. The oil question has lost a former sharpness, the financial adviser of the company " agrees with the colleague; AVK - Securities Grigory Gajvoronsky, and now the domestic market can return to idea of the interest rate to the USA. the next session of committee on operations in the open market of Federal reserve system of the USA will take place already on October, 24th. Perhaps, this unique considerable event of the next week, and in its light the least risky and the most interesting to an investment represent actions of the Russian oil companies: ` Surgutneftegaz `, LUKOIL, ` Tatneft ` and ` oil Gazprom ` - the mister Gajvoronsky believes.
In short-term and intermediate term prospect ordinary actions of LUKOIL and ` Gazprom `, and also actions ` are interesting to investments to Sibirtelekoma `, SZT, ` by Dalsvjazi ` and ` Volgatelekoma `, - mister Zajtsev speaks. - in long-term prospect on - former actions ` Severstal `, MMK, NLMK, ` Karelian okatysha `, ` by Ammofosa `, ` Dorogobuzha ` and ` Cherepovets nitrogen ` " are essentially fundamentally underestimated;. And according to Vadim Dvorjaninova, in long-term prospect it is possible to pay attention to Savings Bank papers as on the protective tool during the instability periods in the market.
the Rouble market slowly but surely grew
the Rouble debt market last week surprises has not presented, it slowly and truly dews. the basic demand has been concentrated in the second echelon where investors were involved first of all with papers of the telecommunication companies, and also in the underestimated papers of the first echelon - the analyst of a management company " explains a situation; Orion Renat Malines. As he said, appetite of participants of the market to papers with the high coupon income against some decrease in potential of high-quality bonds grows. federal loan bond sector along with the majority of papers of the first echelon has slightly added in the price for a week - the analyst marks. In its opinion, demand for the state papers remains high. To volume acknowledgement, according to the mister of Malines, auction on dorazmeshcheniju federal loan bond 25029 became bright: at the auctions demand has five times exceeded the offer.
Analysts do not exclude that activity of players in the debt market current week will decrease. past Friday VAT payment the period of tax deductions has opened. This fact can render an adverse effect on the market of a rouble corporate debt. At least, at first last week it was visible that volumes of the auctions have decreased on 20 - 30 percent in comparison with a situation last week - analyst PSB Alexey Bizin speaks.
to the Investor suggest to buy risks of the western banks
current week analysts recommend to pay attention to placing of bonds of Sibacadembank (SAB), promtraktor - Finansa and Dzhej - Ef - Si groups of companies Self-praise .
The group of companies ` Self-praises ` - the representative of the Russian retail in the Central federal district, engaged also developmentom and operation trading - entertainment complexes, - will involve 1,5 mlrd roubles for three years - the mister tells Malines. In its opinion, the basic pluses of the emitter is high enough efficiency of sales and reporting presence according to the international standards of the financial reporting. however essential level of debt loading does not allow to estimate the possible rate at placing of bonds more low 11,15 - 11,5 percent to the offer, - the mister marks Malines.
holding Dzhej - Ef - Si is going to involve 2 mlrd roubles for five years for refinancing of the previous loan, and also for the further development of the company. effective profitableness at auction on loan placing ` - Ef - Si ` should make Dzhej 9,45 - 9,55 annual interest rates - Alexey Bizin believes. In its opinion, loan placing promtraktor - Finans - 2 will pass without a special agiotage from investors and effective profitableness will appear around the top border of an interval - 10,75 - 10,85 %. At placing of a five years` loan Saba will make profitableness approximately 9,75 - 9,85 % annual. At present at this bank three bonded releases from which the most liquid is the third address. SAB is the largest private bank of Siberia and the Far East. About 46 % of the capital of financial institution copes foreign banks: the European Reconstruction and Development Bank, DEG and Clariden bank. Thus, the investor, buying bonds Saba, oposredovanno gets also a part of risks of the foreign banks entering into number of proprietors Saba, - mister Bizin marks.
Alexander Sologub