Rus News Journal

Trading wars of the XXI-st century

Protectionist moods accrue and in the developed world, and in developing - such is a conclusion of the research spent Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Experts EIU have interrogated 286 heads of the large enterprises operating worldwide. The majority of the interrogated have specified in the growth of protectionism expressed mainly in increase of duties and growth of grants, especially in agriculture and the industry. Every fifth of the interrogated has noted cases of failure of transactions and contracts from - for toughenings of rules of investment.
thus if earlier protectionist moods were characteristic for closed and slaborazvityh the economy protected from expansion of leaders now the developed countries suffering from reduction of workplaces and flow of cheap production from Asia and Latin America, are more and more inclined to protect national manufacturers. The discontent with globalisation in the developed countries is great enough: On October polls Gallup, only 28 % of Europeans and 26 % of Americans consider that globalisation - the blessing (in Asia 52 % adhere to such opinion).

the Governments and the companies even more often follow the tastes of public opinion. Recently manufacturers of cars in Spain and Germany under the pressure of trade unions have been compelled to declare turning of several assembly manufactures in the Eastern Europe. In the USA parliamentary elections were won by the democrats acting under slogans of protection of the national manufacturer. In their opinion, it is the best way to cope with unemployment and a huge disbalance from which the American economy suffers. The negative balance of trading balance of the USA has reached 6 % of gross national product, and many consider that this menacing figure is necessary for reducing by increase in duties.

the Group of researchers of IMF, Federal reserve bank of New York and Bank of Canada, however, considers that a disbalance in the world and American economy, how many those ways with which urge to struggle with them is not so dangerous. In the report World protectionism they prove that the establishment of trading barriers will not solve a problem, and only will aggravate it. According to researchers, the reasonable policy including soft support of manufacturers and restriction of budgetary expenses, will help the USA to reduce negative balance of the balance of payments to level in 2 % for ten years. And trading barriers can improve a situation with balance slightly and urge on gross national product growth a little. But only on condition that other countries will concern easy these steps of the USA. And it is not necessary to expect it.

In case of increase in duties in the USA on ten percentage points (item items) The annual gain of gross national product will increase by 0,3 items of the item Thus in Asia rates of increase of gross national product will decrease on 1 items of the item In case the similar increase in duties will undertake EU, the Asian economy will be braked on 1,4 items of the item in a year. According to the researchers, the developing countries which have suffered from a protectionist policy hardly begin to be reconciled with it and, in turn, will lift duties. Will begin trading wars .

In global trading war by the main characters there will be three basic regional associations which supervise the lion`s share of world economic potential: the North America, EU and Asia. Growth of economy of these regions in case of increase of duties will be braked accordingly on 1,2, 2,8 and 3,2 items of the item In case soft trading war will outgrow in high-grade economic opposition when regions will be fenced off from each other by prohibitive duties, losses can be in times more. Heads of the companies interrogated EIU, also predict that world economy growth in intermediate term prospect will make no more than 1,5 % a year if protectionist tendencies prevail while preservation concerning liberal trade will provide growth at level of 4,5 %.

the Example of that, how much fatal there are consequences, - the period 1920 - 1930 - h years. The senior economist Deutsche UFG Yaroslav Lisovolik: the USA and other countries tried to correct worsening situation protecting duties. The train ` trading wars ` in many respects became the reason of Great depression. Now, fortunately, rules of the WTO do not permit impetuous growth of duties. But if they are broken, in globalizovannom the world the loss will be big, than 75 years ago . to One large country can be favourable to lift duties but if other countries react, it will be bad all authors of the report " mark; World protectionism . Protectionist measures now cannot give positive result and will by all means strike a boomerang on the country initiating them. Developing countries have enough got stronger, and globalisation has gone too far, that someone presumed to itself(himself) luxury of an establishment of trading barriers unilaterally.