Rus News Journal

The power vector

volume of transactions on FB the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange has exceeded Yesterday $1,5 mlrd - record value for all history of the auctions. Placing results dopemissii OGK - 3 have forced investors to overestimate anew all power branch - at the yesterday`s auctions of stock quote of the Russian Open Society “ UES of Russia “ and the generating companies at the general decrease in the market have flied up on 6 - 15 %. Analysts are assured that these quotations become a reference point at definition of the bottom border of the price in forthcoming placings of the power companies.
yesterday in the Russian stock market actions of power sector used the raised demand. Russian Open Society quotations “ UES of Russia “ have grown on 7,8 %, to $1,22, thus, almost completely having compensated falling of the end of February - the beginnings of March. The volume of auctions FB the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange has exceeded $1,5 mlrd - record value for all history of the auctions. Actions of some OGK and TGK have risen in price on 6 - 15 %. Thus yesterday`s growth occurred at the general decrease in the Russian market: The most liquid actions have fallen in price yesterday on 1 - 3 %.

According to analysts, the excessive demand for actions of power sector has been caused by successful placing of actions OGK - 3 (see yesterday`s). GMK “ Norilsk nickel “ has agreed to pay $3,1 mlrd for 37,9 % of actions OGK - 3. Thus, OGK - 3 has been estimated at level of $0,173 for the action that on 12,5 % above current market quotations and almost twice above an estimation spent by the Russian Open Society “ UES of Russia “ ($1,6 mlrd).

By estimations of an analyst of investment company “ Antanta the Capital “ Dmitry Terekhov, with the account dopemissii the company has been estimated in $960 for 1 kw of the established capacity whereas the average price in the market makes $500 - 550 for 1 kw.

“ placing of shares of company above market price has led to revaluation of all branch, and first of all the Russian Open Society. After all before placing OGK - 3 actions of the Russian Open Society were estimated at level of $400 for 1 kw of the established capacities “ - has noted an analyst “ Brokerkreditservisa “ Irina Filatova. Now actions OGK - 4 are estimated by analysts from calculation of $540 for 1 kw, that is on 80 % the prices of placing OGK - 3 are cheaper. Securities OGK - 6 are estimated in $460 for 1 kw that is twice cheaper OGK - 3, actions OGK - 5 have almost 40 - percentage potential of growth.

the overestimated cost of the placed share holding of the power company has provoked a great demand on actions of the power companies from strategic investors. “ placing has shown that demand from strategic investors to branch is and that they are ready to pay the award “ - the senior trader FK " has noted; Uralsib “ Arno Kukk. As a result participants of the market expect that for a number of new placings estimation OGK - 3 becomes the bottom border. “ The placing price will be the bottom reference point for the market. After all actives of following companies on quality do not concede OGK - 3 “ - Dmitry Terekhov considers.

however it concerns first of all the companies to which strategic investors show interest. So, to actions OGK - 4 and OGK - 5 interest has designated “ Gazprom “. In actives OGK - 4 also are interested “ Surgutneftegaz “ and NOVATEK. To TGK - 1 show interest Fortum and “ Interros “. To TGK - 5 - KES. Simultaneously participants of the market notice that concerning actions of majority TGK investors of in any way have not shown.

is closer by the end of the year when less attractive actives will take place, demand for power can, under forecasts of analysts, fall. “ now the Russian Open Society places the titbits on which there is a great demand, - OGK - 3, OGK - 4, OGK - 5. In the end of the year placing of actives, interest to which will be spent 10 times less, therefore is not excluded that their placing will not be same successful “ - Dmitry Skvortsov considers. Besides, investors can not have enough the means allocated for this sector as the volume of placing of actions of the generating companies for 2007 can make $15 billion “ Even at strategic investors, such as ` Gazprom ` or ` Norilsk nickel `, pockets not rubber “ - Dmitry Terekhov believes. To find missing company`s resources could abroad, however placing of the power companies on the western platforms at present, contrary to their plans, it is impossible. In particular, according to the financial director of the Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“ Sergey Dubinin, the power holding company can give audit reports only for last two and a half a year whereas the key requirement for carrying out IPO at the London stock exchange LSE is the reporting of emitters for three years. A top - managers of the Russian Open Society try to achieve from a regulator of the British stock market of indulgences (see from March, 7th). However if it is not possible, the power companies should transfer placings for later terms.