Sour-milk sweetsSupport by majority shareholders of the company of stock quotes pushes interest to them and private investors. On the contrary, uncertainty of a position mazhoritariev concerning the property calls into expediency of investments into question. Especially if speech comes about taste questions.
the French kiss
last week there was an information that company Danone increases a share in the capital “ Vimm - the Bill - Danna “ (VBD), leading up the package to 18,4 %. Thereby in Danone confirm the old interest to the Russian active.
into number of shareholders VBD Danone has entered during primary placing of actions in February, 2002 then protracted negotiations about purchase of all business VBD which, however, in one and a half year have been stopped have begun. Growth of well-being of the population promoted fast growth of business VBD and without attraction of money of strategic investors.
Shareholders VBD, however, in some years have appeared in the face of deficiency proryvnyh ideas for company development, and at all financial resources. Thus rates of increase of the market were slowed down, and competitors caught up, having more expressed specialisation: “ Lebedjansky “ - on sokovom business, Danone - on manufacture vysokomarzhinalnyh dairy products. But also in this situation shareholders VBD have preferred not to sell business, and to leave from an operational administration, having invited foreign managers. It has given effect. Already following the results of 2006 the company net profit has grown in 3,1 times at gain growth on 26,4 %. In the first quarter 2007 the company gain has grown and at all on record 40,1 %.
“ Result will reach at the expense of reduction of costs, including at the expense of high efficiency of process of consolidation of recently got actives. In it a merit of a new command of managers “ - analyst IFK " underlines; Alemar “ Vadim Smirnov. Proprietors have estimated the command contribution, having started last year optsionnuju the program on which management has received 200 thousand actions, that is about 0,45 % of their total number. During the current year it is supposed to direct on these purposes of 5 more %. In the given conditions, obviously, business sale is not included into the nearest plans of shareholders VBD.
Analysts also estimate probability of fast purchase VBD Danone as insignificant. In favour of such conclusion says also that the size of budget Danone on transactions of merges and acquisitions ($0,6 - 1,3 mlrd), called as company management last year, does not allow to buy all business VBD which capitalisation has exceeded $3 billion Besides, a considerable part of actives VBD makes not too interesting for Danone production - traditional dairy and sour-milk products. Hardly foreigners are ready to overpay for them.
At the same time among the factors stimulating the transaction, analysts name interest Danone in in the lead positions in the Russian market. The incorporated company which would supervise to 45 % of the dairy market, can co-operate more effectively with network retail and suppliers of raw materials that will allow to achieve higher profitableness of operations.
however while proprietors of the companies continue difficult game which in general - that arranges both parties. Gradually increasing a share in VBD, Danone declares high interest in the Russian company and frightens off competitors from this active. At the same time company influence in VBD grows, and following step, probably, there is a finishing of the size of a share holding to blocking. It will allow to co-ordinate more actively a policy of both companies on key for Danone the market vysokomarzhinalnoj dairy production.
Besides, constant interest Danone to actions VBD including addressing in the market, gives them essential support. For last year the stock value of the Russian company has grown more than twice, and in first two days after a news exit about the next purchase Danone of the quotation of the Russian company have grown on 12 %. Despite big enough expenses for acquisition of rising in price actions VBD, Danone each following purchase allows to increase and cost of the before the consolidated package. Certainly, these games of two dairy giants are favourable enough to private investors, and they can count on reception of good return from investments in papers VBD.
“ Aeroflot “ after several months of negotiations about purchase of Italian air carrier Alitalia has refused participation in the tender. In day of an exit of news of the quotation of the company have grown up on 4 %. It is interesting that in due time the message on participation “ Aeroflot “ in the Italian tender also has lifted stock quotes of the Russian carrier on 3,51 % though to many analysts the transaction already then did not seem favourable.
Alitalia four years works at a loss, and in conditions zaregulirovannogo the European labour market to carry out there reforms it would be extremely inconvenient. Refusal from zatratnoj the transactions which result is actually unpredictable as analysts believe, will allow “ to Aeroflot “ to use growth of financial indicators more correctly, investing in more reliable projects.
optimism of investors is connected and with the reporting of the Russian company published in June for 2006 on MSFO. The gain has grown on 18,1 % and has reached almost $3 mlrd, EBITDA the net profit - on 36 % has increased by 47 %, and. “ As consequence, profitability of the company on EBITDA following the results of 2006 became still above - 16 % against 12,7 % in 2005, - analyst FK ` marks Opening ` Cyril Tachennikov. - On this indicator ` Aeroflot ` has overtaken such European leaders as Lufthansa (12 %) and Air France KLM (12 %), and it was almost made even to British Airways (17 %) “. In 2006 “ Aeroflot “ has increased passazhiroperevozki by 8 %. For the transportation first quarter 2007 have grown on 23,4 % - basically at the expense of internal air communication where growth has exceeded 46 %.
Among potential objects of investment “ Aeroflot “ - the Serbian airline JAT Airways. “ In case of a victory in competition ` Aeroflot ` will have an opportunity to organise large transport knot on jugo - the east of Europe “ - Cyril Tachennikov marks. Thus the sum of transaction is not too great - an order $100 million Plus of $130 - 150 million investments that, probably, will not lead to growth of debt loading of the Russian airline.
the Russian standard
“ the Seventh continent “ has published not so joyful data of the first quarter on MSFO: The company gain has increased by 29 %, whereas at competitors growth almost twice above. The net profit ritejlera has made $14,6 million, having decreased on 35 % in comparison with the similar period of last year. The total margin has decreased with 31,3 to 30,9 %, EBITDA - on 24 %, profitability EBITDA has fallen with 13,2 to 7,8 %. In most “ the Seventh continent “ explain this fact increase of bonus payments and operational costs, and also falling of total profitability. Thus the infrastructure ritejlera developed in the accounting period more than modestly - it has been opened only two shops (all the company on the first quarter end had 124 shops).
As analysts specify, decrease in total profitability gets character of a tendency at the expense of too strong accent ritejlera on development of a format of hypermarkets, whose short-term efficiency more low, than, for example, at diskaunterov. However diskauntery which were supposed to be opened within a year 67, practically do not develop. In the beginning of year “ the Seventh continent “ has got a company controlling interest “ Sitimarket “ operating network from 18 diskaunterov “ the Traffic light “ on what has stopped.
at the same time growth of indicators without expansion hardly is obviously possible. By estimations of an analyst “ the WHALE of Finans “ Maxim Saenkova, the share of network trade makes today 27 %, and by 2015 it will increase to 65 %. “ About the termination of extensive growth to speak early. Some delay and consolidation of the markets of Moscow and St.-Petersburg are visible, and in regions on - former strong inflow of buyers and growth of the average check " is observed; - the analyst speaks. On this background experts extremely negatively perceive the management decision “ the Seventh continent “ to stop the forecast publication about opening of new shops even for a year forward.
Proceeding from the aforesaid it is impossible to exclude that hearings about the future sale of the company nebespochvenny. While ritejler cannot brag neither fast rates of increase, nor attractive structure of formats of shops. For private investors this situation is especially sad that after a wave of positive news in the beginning of the year, accompanied by growth of quotations, the company again plunges into a sleepiness in which she has spent all last year.
In bank retail excessive expansion appears, on the contrary, risky and not too joyful for investors. Last week URSA the Bank declared end of placing of preference shares. In total it has been placed 194 million actions on $2,10 for a piece. The issue volume has made $407,8 million which the bank assumes to direct on business development. Besides placing of actions the bank actively uses also other sources of means for financing of the aggressive expansion. In May of current year it has placed eurobonds on ˆ400 million, in June has involved the syndicated credit from the Asian banks for the sum more than $63 million
Thus actively occupy also the banks entering into bank alliance URSA of Bank (Etalonbank, bank “ East express train “ Zheldorbank, bank “ Southern region “ and Weights of Media bank). So, in the end of June of $43 million has involved bank “ East express train “. So wide investment possibilities of bank are in many respects defined by presence among its shareholders of such structures, as the European Reconstruction and Development Bank and DEG.
Aggressive strategy bears fruit. The bank has today the branched out network of branches, a heel in the sizes in Russia though it is concentrated mainly in Siberia and in Ural Mountains, covering also the Far East and the Volga region. For 2006 bank actives on MSFO have grown four times.
But as analysts mark, excessively fast expansion of bank bears in itself high enough risks. On the end of 2006 the volume of its obligations under debt securities has exceeded 36 mlrd rbl., still almost 6 mlrd the bank has involved rbl. in a kind subordinirovannyh credits. “ the share of own capital in bank passives steadily decreases as a result of risky expansion, - analyst IK ` marks Antanta - the capital ` Maxim Osadchy. - the bank compensates for the deficiency own capital attraction subordinirovannogo the credit which cost is high enough and reaches 12,25 % “.
the Second danger is covered that expansion URSA of Bank is carried out basically in the form of absorption of the weakened regional banks. “ for example, Uralvneshtorgbanka got after summer bank crisis of 2004 for $20 - 30 million “ - Maxim Osadchy speaks. The bank has not time to structure these actives that conducts to growth of the problems connected with efficiency of an infrastructure.
by the way, Rosbank and bank “ Uralsib “ after association with the bought bank networks (OVK and Avtobank accordingly) till now are occupied by infrastructure optimisation, reducing unprofitable points of sales, reconstructing marketing and servicing system. Acquisition not the strongest regional players can bear essential financial risks, therefore ratings URSA of Bank in scales of international agencies Moody ` s and Fitch are the lowest in group of 20 largest Russian banks.
“ Vimm - the Bill - Dann “ the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange
Current cost ($) 82,833
Fair cost ($)
IK “ the Prospectus “ 95
Bank “ Zenith “ 91
Alpha bank 88,5
IFK “ Metropol “ 85,38
“ Aeroflot “ The Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange
Current cost ($) 2,808
Fair cost ($)
FK “ Opening “ 3,24
Bank of Moscow 3,15
Bank “ Zenith “ 1,64
IFK “ Metropol “ 1,35
URSA Bank, RTS
Current cost ($) 2,23
Fair cost ($)
IFK “ Metropol “ 2,94
IK “ the Three Dialogue “ 2,47
“ Petrokommerts “ 2,37
“ the Seventh continent “ the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange
Current cost ($) 26,823
Fair cost ($)
Bank of Moscow 32,14
Bank “ Zenith “ 30,6
YOKES “ Aton “ 26,7
Alpha bank 24,1