Started gigavattyRates of building of the new capacities, the developments of the Russian electric power industry put in programs, do not answer real production potentialities of domestic power mechanical engineering. It is obviously not enough of them, that perevooruzhit power at the expense of internal resources. Import of the equipment will not solve a problem. The operating competitive system of a choice of the supplier reduces competitiveness of branch: the domestic companies obviously lose to the western manufacturers on quality, and Chinese - at the price.
the overestimated lath
According to the statistical data about capacities of power mechanical engineering, the Russian manufacturers in a condition to let out the turbine equipment on 13,5 thousand MVt annually (for comparison in China into operation it is entered on 100 thousand MVt a year). Such indicator is rather essential, considering that annual volumes of output of power stations last years made no more than 3 thousand MVt. However for the investment program of the Russian Open Society “ UES of Russia “ providing in 2010 introduction in a system of power stations the general capacity of 19 thousand MVt, is obviously not enough possibilities of the Russian power machine engineers.
the Look-ahead rate of increase of current consumption put in a base variant “ the General scheme of placing of objects of electric power industry till 2020 “ (Minpromenergo together with Ministry of economic development and trade, the Ministry of Finance, Rosatom and the Russian Open Society " is developed; UES of Russia “) Makes 4,1 %, maximum - 5,2 %. For comparison in 2001 - 2005 medium height of current consumption made only 1,7 % a year. The forecast for genshemy has been made taking into account results of 2006 when from - for strong frosts current consumption growth has made 3,7 %. However to lean against indicators of one year at long-term planning, at least, it is short-sighted, as in 2007 current consumption growth has decreased to 2,3 %. Whether
such overestimated forecast of rates of development of branch to draw attention of investors to IPO the generating companies Is in the way, or it is a banal error - it is not known. But it is obvious that planned rates of building of power stations strongly exceed current possibilities of the Russian power mechanical engineering. Moreover, they cannot be realised even by means of import of the equipment of leading foreign manufacturers. The forced building of stations can do much harm (and already harms) to the Russian power mechanical engineering. If new generating capacities are entered by the planned rates the country will receive superfluous park of generation and further on a chain - low operating ratio of the established capacity, high costs and unduly growing tariffs dispersing and without those leaving from - under control inflation.
throughout more than 10 years congestion of registration capacities could make 15 - 20 %. In the conditions of absence of internal orders and the most severe competitive struggle in foreign markets of the enterprise of power mechanical engineering hardly could allow to contain to itself in working order standing idle capacities. These not finished loading funds have been anyhow preserved, leased or even are sold. Besides, all manufacturers mark outflow most qualified personnel because of absence of orders, and consequently, and means for payment. It is not necessary to forget also what not any turbines are intended for power stations, after all except electric power industry consumers of production of power mechanical engineering are also the military and civil aircraft, gas-transport system and others.
differently, current production potentialities of domestic power mechanical engineering under complete sets of the equipment for power stations are estimated approximately in 6 thousand MVt. And it is already considerable less inquiries of the electric power industry calculated under obviously overestimated forecast of consumption.
it is obvious that for the further development of domestic power mechanical engineering expansion of the investment activity adequate to inquiries energetikov is necessary. Plans on realisation of such investments are already developed by all leading manufacturers of the power equipment. If them realise, already in 2011 - 2016 the Russian manufacturers will be capable to provide annual input approximately 6 GVt parogazovyh and 5,5 GVt coal power stations that completely covers requirements of power by a base variant genshemy. Thus practically there will be no stock of capacity for work under export contracts.
nevertheless, practical realisation of investment plans in power mechanical engineering that fact can prevent that all large purchases of the necessary equipment and materials carry out generating companies on a tender basis. As accurate technical requirements to the perspective order till now are not formulated, the potential enterprises - suppliers appear in a difficult situation. For maintenance in the future of the large order it is necessary for them to put in the near future already considerable means in modernisation and manufacture expansion, however they cannot be assured that their production will be claimed in the course of realisation of investment programs of the power companies. Considering high cost of proceeds of credit to Russia and not irreproachable financial condition of many processing manufactures, the enterprises - suppliers do not presume to go to themselves on such risk.
a part of the questions connected with potential of power machine-building branch, strategy of development of power mechanical engineering urged to solve. Its working out has been put in plans of work of the government for 2006, however subsequently is delayed till the statement moment “ the General scheme of placing of objects of electric power industry till 2020 “ in connection with necessity accurately to adhere strategy parametres to volume and technical parametres genshemy. It should provide the maximum complete set of electric power industry with the modern and effective domestic equipment. As genshema has been approved by the government of the Russian Federation in April, 2007, process of working out of strategy of development of power mechanical engineering is required to be accelerated.
it is necessary to notice that machine engineers developed the corporate programs of development independently, without having thus other reference points except the overestimated indicators of the future demand which have been published on presentations genshemy and the investment program of the Russian Open Society “ UES of Russia “. As a result there was a number nestykovok, from which inevitable shortage of capacities of domestic power mechanical engineering in 2008 - is 2011 main. Really, according to the investment program of the Russian Open Society “ UES of Russia “ for 2006 - 2010, more than 90 % of new capacities are planned to put into operation last three years of action of the program. And it means that power, most likely, will receive less neither gas, nor steam turbines of a domestic production.
the Heads of electropower branch directly related to working out of strategic plans of its development, see a solution of a problem in production import. China which in a year builds some power stations the general capacity in 100 GVt can become one of the main importers. However the Russian power stations more than on 95 % are completed by the turbine and boiler equipment own domestic, therefore to suggest them to address for the help to China where before recent time at all there was no power mechanical engineering, at least, strange. Nevertheless, in the Russian electric power industry there was a strange practice to hold tenders in one stage instead of two as it is accepted abroad, - at first technical, and then price competition.
as the Bright example for that the decision of the competitive commission serves at Open Society board of directors “ OGK - 2 “ taken out on October, 2nd, 2007. Then in opened odnoetapnom competition on performance of functions genpodrjadchika on building “ on a turn-key basis “ two coal power units individual capacity 660 MVt on a platform of branch of Open Society “ OGK - 2 “ (the Troitsk state district power station) has won Joint-Stock Company “ Quartz - Tyumen “. In the demand (the copper, the turbine, the generator) appeared the manufacturer of the basic power equipment China.
the example from the Troitsk state district power station has opened an absence problem in Russia the efficient mechanism on introduction of new workings out in power mechanical engineering. In world practice so-called pilot projects (i.e. power stations on head samples of the innovative equipment) are created by joint efforts of the private organisations, and the decision on creation of pilot stations is accepted at the state level. In the project of such station division of obligations and responsibility between the private companies and the state, and also shares of their participation in project financing in advance accurately makes a reservation. Thus any country of the world having own power mechanical engineering, does not involve foreign manufacturers of the equipment if such project can be realised the national companies.
in Russia suppliers of the equipment for any power stations get out on the basis of the competitive auctions. At station creation on the modernised or new samples of the power equipment, working out and which introduction will allow branch to keep and raise competitiveness of production, this system does a victory of the Russian manufacturers improbable.
On a number of directions (such as power units with supersverhkriticheskimi in parametres of steam, a fire chamber with a circulating boiling layer under pressure, super-power gas turbines) home producers yet have no considerable experience of industrial introduction, but are ready to develop and put the competitive equipment. If at the auctions experience of introduction is not considered the main criterion of selection the Russian manufacturers lose Chinese at the price. If it gives priority, the domestic companies concede to world leaders - Siemens, Alstom, General Electric, etc.
In case of preservation of former competitive system creation innovative, proryvnyh projects in power mechanical engineering becomes almost impossible therefore the branch quickly enough will lose the competitiveness. Possibility at the expense of the domestic equipment will be thus missed to carry out reequipment of all Russian electric power industry, to raise efficiency of use toplivno - power resources and reliability of work of a uniform electropower system. After all if already at a stage of head innovative projects to admit arrival on home market of the power equipment of foreign manufacturers the Russian companies will lose a priority and chances of a batch production. It will lead to considerable reduction of export and internal orders, and further - to competitiveness decrease. Besides without presence of internal manufacture will not be claimed branch school of thought, design and inzhiniringovye the companies and the adjacent enterprises - thus, all will collapse scientifically - an industrial chain.
certainly, nobody cancels necessities of acceptance and other measures on stimulation of development of branch. Working out of strategy of development of power mechanical engineering, and accurate state policy concerns them concerning conditions of arrival of foreign manufacturers on the Russian market, and government programs of support of the branch researches and development directed on working out of new perspective samples of the power equipment also.
the probability of such succession of events at which on the Russian market foreign manufacturers in large quantities will come otherwise is great, and the share of home producers in home market will essentially be reduced. As a result the Russian manufacturers will not receive that volume of orders on which their programs of development are calculated, level of dependence of the Russian power from the foreign companies will raise, expenses for service and repair that will cause additional growth of cost of services of the generating companies will essentially increase. Besides, at a complete set of industrial objects the foreign equipment refusal of the foreign companies to carry out service and corrective maintenance in case of economic sanctions, military operations and others a swagger - major circumstances is theoretically possible.