Rus News Journal

Sharp consumer insufficiency

Middle class in Russia gets used to stand in queues again. Why in the conditions of the competitive markets there is a deficiency and how with it to struggle?

six years ago the American holding A & T Trade, specialising on deliveries to Russia professionalnogozvukovogo the equipment, has decided to master the local market IP - a telephony. This direction actively developed in the West, but vnashej to the country the niche was empty. To supervise over the project, which sejchasizvesten under a brand the Zebra a TV set Americans doverilivypuskniku programs MBA University of Harvard to DenisuMiroshnikovu. the Diplomaed manager has judged that proektunuzhna the massed advertising campaign. On advancement it $1 million - half of all investments. Sales sharply have gone upwards, imiroshnikov already reported to shareholders about successes.

But it was soon found out that in forecasts Zebras a TV set urovensprosa has been essentially underestimated. In retail became sharply not hvatattelefonnyh cards. Deficiency of capacities - them nehvatalo for service growing by leaps and bounds kolichestvaklientov was found out also. All it has affected and quality of services, and on the relation knovichku the consumers which outflow became reaction nasluchivsheesja.

After the USSR and a planned economy have collapsed, ponjatiedefitsita has not disappeared - it has simply changed. desjatiletijaproderzhav the Soviet citizens in an original consumer tone, deficiency is ready to pursue them and with capitalism arrival. A nedavnjajasoljanaja fever - time insanity - here at anything. New deficiency - a product of system of emerging markets. And struggle snim demands more thin ways, rather than appeals sohranjatspokojstvie to the fellow citizens predisposed to a panic.

Demand does not give rise to the offer
the Foreign tourists walking on the centre of the Russian capital, not without interest observe, how the Moscow sidewalks are partitioned off by turns well odetyhljudej, expecting at inputs in restaurants while little tables will be released. It and it is no wonder. On one thousand Muscovites it is necessary only 25 places vkafe and restaurants - in eight times less, than in Europe and the USA. Prietom on level of monthly expenses on a public catering Moscow only vtroeustupaet to the American and European megacities: $40 protiv$100-150.

Other market where deficiency is visible especially accurately, - automobile. The Russian buyers expect delivery of models of Ford Focus povosem - nine months - demand for them today three times prevyshaetpredlozhenie. Our market of foreign cars grows on 60-70 % annually, - the director for strategic marketing of a group of companies Rolf Valery Tarakanov marks. - Foreign manufacturers progroan have time to react .

Growth of sales of Ford in the first quarter 2006 has exceeded 85 %. Zavodkompanii in Vsevolozhsk will increase release from 50 thousand to 60 thousand mashini plans to finish annual volumes of output to 75 thousand cars. But it all the same it will be obvious insufficiently. However, the radical measures, called to reduce a waiting time to razumnyhsrokov, can not follow still for a long time. To the international concerns which millions cars in the West market, malenkijrossijsky the market is not too interesting yet. By estimations Rolfa zaproshlyj year here it has been sold all 575 thousand new foreign cars.

With satisfaction observing of surplus of demand, the company, probably, make a large mistake. Deficiency that it concerned, usually gives rise to the feeling opposite to loyalty at the consumer. Akonkurentam the firm creating an agiotage and not capable it to bridle, it gives the chance to cope with the same work better.

When advertising is, and the goods are not present are irritate, - soglashaetsjadirektor Trout & Partners Russia Alexey Suhenko. - it is quite logical that many of dissatisfied consumers reshajutkupit contestant firm production . According to Suhenko, nearby 50% foreign cars in Russia, having faced with neobhodimostjuzhdat three and more months, find alternative.

shortage System
the Reasons modern defitsitakrojutsja as in activity of the company and its partners, and vovneshnih circumstances which it is heavy to affect.

In our country often enough deficiency results from state actions. So, past March nalogovikizapretili more than to 200 autocarts which are based in Kaliningrad to transport cars from Europe to Russia directly. It has found vrasplohimporterov and has led to deficiency of some of the most popular vrossii foreign cars. But as the brightest illustration of deficiency as odnojiz state regulation costs position in otechestvennomstrojkomplekse serves. One of the most corrupted and nerynochnyhsektorov the Russian economy, it hardly probable when - nibud was close kgarmonii between supply and demand. But with adoption of law About participation in share building experts connect nebyvaloepadenie rates of erection of habitation and a lack sharply podorozhavshihkvartir. So, according to the analytical centre Indicators rynkanedvizhimosti in March of this year the average price square metramoskovskoj has passed living spaces for $3000.

however, the companies easily provoke deficiency and without postoronnejpomoshchi. The typical reason of its occurrence - errors in prognozahsprosa.

the Adviser of firm Development business - systems NikolajKuchugin considers that in the consumer markets kompaniiplanirujut volumes, proceeding from the compromise of interests of various groups - first of all marketing and logistics departments. Sluzhbalogistiki is guided by statistics - volumes of deliveries for minuvshiekvartaly and the size of the warehouse rests for the same periods. Marketologismotrjat in the future, trying to consider an estimation of analysts on dinamikerynka and effect from advertising campaigns.

In sector FMCG, on supervision of Kuchugina, experts pologistike, as a rule, sell short . In growth partiitovara they see additional costs on transportation and storage. Experts in marketing, predicting active demand, draw nauvelichenii manufactures. The balance is broken, when marketing, on the contrary, aspires to sell for a ceiling price small partijutovara and there and then to offer the client its advanced model. The risk of underestimation of demand on initial izdeliei, as result, its deficiency in this case raises.

the deficiency Problem (time absence of the goods in a warehouse) is well familiar to participants of the industry of direct sales. Demand here, kakpravilo, is easily predicted, after all its basic part is necessary nazajavki to army of individual businessmen (those who prodaettovar to direct consumers). However mechanics and rezhimpostavok are extremely difficult. For example, company Avon spends 13 campaigns of sales in a year, in each of kotoryhobnovljaet assortment, the prices and enters special offers. In podgotovkukazhdoj campaigns local office Avon joins approximately for dvamesjatsa. It is not enough if to consider that to the beginning billingadolzhny to be worked, confirmed and brought in informatsionnujusistemu difficult conditions of deliveries and charged factors dljasoten thousand trading partners. Errors in the data, late startkampanii are fraught with a delay of shipment of the goods, so - and sozdaniempreslovutogo deficiency. The pair of such incidents - and chastpredstavitelej, not received in time the order, can leave kkonkurentu the supplier. Harmonious work of services of marketing, logistikipri to support IT - department reduces this risk.

Important property of deficiency - to arise there where there are problems with uniform information standards, binding zvenjatsepochki deliveries. in our market deficiency frequently vyzvanneprozrachnostju works of the companies, - is told by Denis Kotov, the general director sankt - the Petersburg network of bookshops Pedant. - The trading firm and the publisher can use IT - systems, gdedannye are presented in different formats, it complicates operativnyjobmen the information on current sales .

an abundance Lesson
Forming mutually advantageous otnoshenijprodavtsa with the manufacturer - the shortest, though and not always prostejshijput to a deficiency solution of a problem. if to us will be nedopostavljatto on what we earn, it is necessary to react - it is terrible govoritsovladelets Euronetworks Evgenie Chichvarkin. One of these days it declared removal of almost annual embargo on sale in the salons Samsung - after the South Korean company soglasilasuvelichit volumes of the deliveries till the size, ustraivajushchegorossijskogo ritejlera.

At the same time initiatives on struggle against deficiency quite mogutishodit and from the manufacturer. Till autumn of last year Indesit vrossii chronically nedopostavljala to the counterparts the household technics - only from - for a lack of warehouse capacities. Glavapredstavitelstva the companies KahaKobahidze in interview the Council of Federation (42/ 2005) admitted the CIS and the Baltic States that it is a little more - and trading partners staliby to refuse work with the astable supplier, especially chtoego the place would be occupied willingly with any of the competitors having iliplanirujushchih to open in Russia assembly shops. As a result of Indesit for 32 million euro a large distribution centre nepodalekuot the manufacture in Lipetsk. And by that has solved a problem.

If the scarce goods use an excessive demand, this sprosmozhno to try to cool. The obvious exit - to rise the price, Nikolay Kuchugin argues. A problem that this method rabotaettolko for the goods of an average price category. Obespechennyepokupateli will buy, most likely, a product, even if onpodorozhaet on 50 %, and even more. As it is paradoxical, the same samoemozhet to occur and in the bottom price segment. As pokazyvajutissledovanija Developments business - systems suppressing bolshinstvopokupatelej cheap cigarettes of type the Tonic would continue them kuritdazhe in case of double increase in the price (after all in the market all ravnonet anything more well).

Other way of reduction in demand - to reduce marketingovujuaktivnost. Group Rolf for example, it is intended sderzhivaetstimulirovanie sales of some very popular models of cars, having concentrated on construction new trading - the service centres. netsmysla to twist pedals, increasing demand, yet podtjaneshadekvatnyj service and a marketing network - explains Cockroaches.

But often deficiency it is better to perceive as crisis, the centre kotorogosleduet to localise and neutralise as soon as possible. So kompanijamozhet to present business as annoying technical failure, to those samymuvelichiv chances of continuation of relations with the client.

In September, 2004 the company MTU - Intel (has entered into holding " later; Comstar - Incorporated telesystems ) Has deduced on the market new uslugupod mark Strim : limitless high-speed access in internetza $24 a month. Improbably low price sprovotsirovalaobvalnyj demand. Connections occurred to a delay on two - trinedeli from - for shortages of modems and user`s lines. To leave napriemlemyj level of service, the company had to work in avralnomrezhime - urgently to gather additionally the personnel in services of sales and podderzhkiabonentov, to expand a network of dealers and dokupat nedostajushcheeoborudovanie.

sometimes to eliminate deficiency, business goes on absolutely otchajannyeshagi. During crisis in the market of a cellular retail in August 2005 (at the height of state campaign for struggle with grey import) nekotoryemagaziny, trading in phones, sent the sotrudnikovskupat tubes in points of competitors to provide neobhodimyjassortiment.

Places are not present
Struggle against deficiency in public catering sphere irazvlecheny - business special. Attendance of cafe, restaurants, cinemas and other entertaining institutions is subject silnymnedelnym and even to daily fluctuations. It is known that all of them obychnostalkivajutsja with flow of clients in the evening, and peak sprosaprihoditsja on a weekend. According to the head of restaurant holding Arpikom Michael Zelmana, now the majority uspeshnyhzavedeny during time business - a lunch are filled on 50-80 %, and with 18 to 23 - on 80-90 %. In the evening from Thursday till Saturday in mnogierestorany it is heavy to get without making an appointment. In protivnomsluchae it is necessary to be ready to tiresome expectation.

to win turns it is possible, only opening new institutions, the managing director on operational activity " marks; Rosinterrestorants Vladislav Rogov. However, as he said, it nesrabotaet in case of expensive restaurants - after all the head cook and modnajatusovka do not give in to cloning .

There where expansion is complicated - on conceptual ilifinansovym to the reasons, - it is necessary to accustom to reserve people places, the editor-in-chief of magazine " considers; the Victualer DmitrijGroznyj. Psychologists say that the pleasure is necessary planirovatzaranee and if to this council will listen at least polovinaposetitelej, the problem of deficiency of places any more will not be such sharp . Avot restaurants Goodman (copes Arpikom ) If the visitor has come vzavedenie, and empty seats are not present, the employee communicates on telefonus managing directors of other restaurants of a network and finds out, where there are places. At will of its visitor to a taxi deliver in other restaurant for schetzavedenija.

For a warming up
Meanwhile not all consider that deficiency - it is by all means bad. Some companies it is artificial razogrevajutspros on the goods, compelling people to search long for it in shops. Some months having kept them in pressure, the company vbrasyvaetnovinku at retail already in volume, sufficient to sate the market. Such method, in particular, is popular enough in Japan. For example, Sony, deducing games console Playstation 2, aktivnorasprostranjala hearings that after the beginning of sales of prefixes navseh will not suffice. The present explosive agiotage (carrying out see) became result.

But the similar clever game demands extremely exact calculation and ktomu extensive the fan - club Consumers which is in aktivelish at the selected circle of corporations. To other companies sledovaloby the nobility how basically not to suppose deficiency, and then pribolshom desire - to learn to operate its creation in svoihinteresah.

the COLUMN of the EXPERT: the Manufacturer at all vsegdazainteresovan in deficiency liquidation
Anton CHUMAKOV,
the sales manager of company Electrolux:

- that deficiency arises in the conditions of opened konkurentnyhrynkov, anything surprising is not present. Exists perfectly izvestnyjeffekt when the company starts manufacture of any goods, itot, thanks to the consumer properties, creates on rynkespros more widely the assumed. The manufacturer with most nachalastalkivaetsja with the difficulties connected with udovletvoreniemdopolnitelnogo of demand. It is good, if there is a possibility rezkouvelichit volume of output. However, as a rule, it neproishodit: Manufacture, even very flexible, is planned in advance, and extremely seldom manufacturers count that new tovarustroit in the market mini - revolution.

that to the missed benefit of the manufacturer and the spoilt image, etovopros the disputable. In - the first, an excessive demand for any goods - etovsegda a signal to the manufacturer for price increase. Here the main thing - correctly to catch that fragile side after which further, dazhenebolshoe, price increase attracts landslide reduction in demand. In - the second, are not present such competitive advantage, which nekopirovalos. In Russia demand for the model of Mazda 3 made by that zhekompaniej that makes and Frd Focus (and, by the way, on that zhebaze that Focus), exceeds the offer and today, spustja two godaposle its start. Competitors and schoolmates at Mazda 3, of course, is, but the fact remains. And thus Mazda 3 on 10-15 % dorozhedazhe new updating Focus. Differently, the question in that, how much revolutionary is created a product. By the way, and on Ford Focustozhe turn. And on latest models of Lamborghini turn always!

As it is found out, the manufacturer at all always zainteresovanv deficiency liquidations. Moreover, some proizvoditelivystraivajut strategy of advancement on the basis of deficiency creation nasvoj the goods (usually it concerns the goods a premium - a segment). If zhenuzhno to liquidate deficiency fast narashchivanieproizvodstvennyh capacities it is healthy. But if all - taki sdelateto is impossible, such variant is offered: to try zapustitanalogichnyj a product advanced, say, in other markets. Toest to create the competitor, but own, as Ford Focus Mazda 3. It will allow to expand sales, differentsirovatprodukty - analogues, to avoid overestimate of the prices and in final scheteudovletvorit bolshee number of buyers.