The deposit minus inflationInflation following the results of 2007 has exceeded predicted level and has forced investors to count up losses. During the current year they had chances to restore the savings - after rise in price of the western money and increase of the rate of the Central Bank banks have started to lift percent on deposits. Whether it However, will help the investor, in many respects depends on, whether can keep the government this year inflation at level of 8,5 % annual.
the past year has left the majority of investors without profit. And it concerns not only already become traditionally unprofitable currency of the USA, but also savings in euro and roubles. Pleases only that the tendency to increase in interest rates under contributions of the physical persons, outlined even in the autumn of last year, has remained and in new year.
the mortgage crisis which has begun in the USA in the summer of last year, has forced banks to search for alternative sources of means. So, “ the Russian standard “ and “ Houm the Credit “ Have declared intention to increase a share of deposits of private persons in the passives. “ to involve in the world markets the money resources necessary for development of the Russian banks, became or too expensive, or it is simply impossible, therefore some Russian banks began to involve more actively means of our fellow citizens, and the most effective tool till now there is an increase of rates. Though actually for banks such competition is absolutely unpromising, as it reduces a bank margin and in this connection quality of servicing " decreases also; - the head of department of development of depositary and commission products of Alpha bank Vadim Yudin considers.
long before approach of calendar winter banks suggested to open the contributions dated by New Year`s holidays, with the raised rates, stimulating clients with draws of prizes and delivery of gifts. However a number of banks has raised profitableness under contributions on a constant basis. So, in the end of October bank “ the Renaissance “ has increased rates by all kinds of contributions - on the average in roubles and dollars the rate has grown on 0,5 %, and in euro - on 1 %. Since December, 12th of the rate under contributions to bank have raised for 0,25 - 1,5 % annual. “ the basic wave of increase of rates under contributions has passed on the threshold of new year is has been partly caused by desire to involve the awards paid to the population, bonuses and so-called 13 - e salaries. Besides, the decision of our bank on profitableness increase under deposits of private persons has been caused by plans of Bank of Russia to increase the refinancing rate “ - the deputy chief of department of retail operations of bank " tells; the Renaissance “ Vyacheslav Gubkin.
bank VTB 24 has raised interest rates by separate kinds of contributions since October, 1st on 0,75 %, and on the threshold of New Year`s holidays of the rate have risen for 0,05 - 2 %. Has improved in the end of December of a condition of attraction of means for contributions and Alpha bank. Depending on rate terms under deposits in dollars and roubles have grown on 0,25 - 0,5 % annual. From the beginning of new year has lifted rouble rates of Transkreditbank on 0,5 % annual. “ really, the requirement of the Russian banks to search for resources in home market in this connection growth of rates under population contributions is observed recently increases. Simultaneously growth of interest rates is connected and with input by separate banks of seasonal contributions, interest rates on which above a bank ruler. To the banks which are not giving seasonal offers, it is necessary to increase interest rates within the limits of an existing ruler not to lose a market position “ - the head of department of depositary and commission products Promsvjazbanka Natalia Voloshin speaks.
since February, 1st the Bank of Russia declared increase of the rate of refinancing on 0,25 %, to 10,25 %. Over the last 10 years this first increase of discount rate. It has been lowered to 10 % in July of last year. However mass revision of interest rates in connection with increase of the rate of the Central Bank has not occurred. The bank of Russia does not finance banks under the refinancing rate, and it serves in a greater degree in the fiscal and registration purposes for any calculation of penalties and fines. Besides symbolical change of the rate on 0,25 % hardly will serve, as experts, a push for profitableness increase under contributions speak.
“ dynamics of the rate of refinancing gives a reference point in an establishment of rates under contributions, but usually, in - the first, with some “ delay “ and in - the second, only at considerable change. For example, updating of the rate of the Central Bank on 0,25 points cannot as - or to affect retail products of banks “ - Vyacheslav Gubkin is assured. As a result only few banks have corrected rates under deposits.
So, in the beginning of February increase of rates in all currencies has concerned clients of the Baltic bank - on 0,15 - 2,75 % annual. The Moscow credit bank has raised on all ruler of contributions interest rates on 0,25 - 1,75 % annual; bank “ Globeks “ - on 0,25 %. The deputy director of department of retail business of Rosbank Dmitry Vechkanov has not excluded possibility of growth of rates: “ Now the bank considers possibility of increase of rates under contributions for preservation of competitive positions in the market, expansions of client base and increase in volumes of a depositary portfolio “. promsvjazbank and Juniastrum bank have declared that their plans do not include yet increase of rates: they and so are high enough. “ among banks of the group our bank offers attractive enough conditions on contributions “ - Natalia Voloshin has noted.
However Central Bank discount rate is only one of reference points against which commercial banks lean at an establishment of interest rates under deposits. In a greater degree banks are guided by offers of competitors, trying to observe also and own interests. Increase of rates leads to rise in price of means involved with banks, reducing a bank margin. Banks operate with caution on the main player in the market of contributions - the Savings Bank, which last time corrected a ruler of deposits in May of last year. Then the bank has lowered profitableness under contributions on the average on 0,5 %. As a result, according to Agency on insurance of contributions (ASV), the Savings Bank share in the market of contributions has decreased on 1,9 %. “ Further decrease in a share of the Savings Bank will slowly proceed, but its concrete dynamics will depend on the percentage policy under contributions “ - it is told in a press - release ASV.
Though increase of rates has no mass character, discount rate change will be reflected in the investor positively. First of all it will concern the contributions opened under percent, the Central Banks exceeding discount rate. “ direct dependence between change of the rate of refinancing and level of interest rates under contributions is not present. Thus, having raised the rate of refinancing to 10,25 %, the Central Bank thereby has given a gift to all investors at which contributions under higher rates are opened: the taxable base has decreased for the same of 0,25 % at calculation and deduction NDFL “ - the head of department of deposits and savings Binbanka Alexander Efremov speaks. Really, according to the Tax code the investor should pay 35 % of the sum exceeding the income, calculated proceeding from the refinancing current rate. Thereby with discount rate increase the taxable base has decreased.
Vadim Yudin from Alpha bank considers: “ It is possible to expect that a number of banks will be and to raise further rates under deposits but while there are no preconditions for their sharp growth, and change of the rate of refinancing with 10 to 10,25 % the majority of banks even can not count as the important factor for growth of rates under the deposits for physical persons. More likely in the circumstances the majority of bankers will be guided by possibility of attraction of cheaper means from foreign markets, and only at its absence - to make active attraction of deposits of physical persons, including raising rates under deposits. That we now also observe as a whole on the market “. Also as a push to increase of interest rates problems with liquidity at the Russian banks can serve. “ many experts predict deterioration of position with liquidity in Russia in short-term prospect. In this situation money should rise in price. For investors it means possibility of occurrence of offers with higher rates, than now. However necessity “ to hold a margin “ constrains generosity of banks in this question “ - the adviser of the chairman of the board of bank " has told; Strojkredit “ Andrey Bocharov.
the Deposits which have shown unprofitableness following the results of last year, nevertheless remain actual and further and as experts predict, even become more demanded. “ certainly, deposits in 2008 become even more demanded, than in 2007. It is caused by several factors: preservation of the average level of inflation, increase of level of incomes of physical persons, high volatilnostju stock market, but at the same time it is necessary to remember that growth of the market of deposits directly depends on that, is how much quiet bank system of Russia will overcome consequences of world crisis of liquidity “ - Vadim Yudin considers. It agree with the colleague and Natalia Voloshin: “ The estimation of the Russian market of savings shows that its possibilities not only are not settled, but also have considerable potential. The astable situation in stock markets forces careful players to search for less risky ways of an investment of money resources that favorably affects the market of contributions of the population “.
However the data about a rate of inflation does not inspire optimism - in January, by estimates of Rosstata, it has made 2,3 %, or more than 27,6 % annual that almost in one and a half time above value of January of last year. And if further rates of increase of inflation are not reduced, investors can sympathise only. Last year the government planned a rate of inflation in 8 %, and following the results of a year it has made 11,9 %.
Rouble savings on deposits which, according to the Central Bank, has entrusted the savings in 2007 almost 87 % of investors, have depreciated. The maximum rate in 11,8 % was offered the clients by bank “ Ak the Leopard “. Thus, investors of bank have received a loss of 0,1 % annual. Owners of deposits in other banks have lost considerably the most part of savings. No more than 10 % annual promised to clients under annual deposits the Savings Bank, bank “ the Renaissance “ and bank “ Uralsib “.
the Euro has grown for the last year concerning rouble on 3,5 %. Thus, remain at the those investors who have placed the means at least under 8,4 % annual could. However in the market of such rates was not. The maximum offered Investsberbank - 8 % annual, having left the clients at a loss on 0,4 % annual. Other banks gave even less: 7,75 % charged VTB 24, and in the Savings Bank and bank “ Petrokommerts “ rates did not rise above 7,25 % annual.
fixed deposits in dollars have shown a traditional loss: the currency for 2007 has lost 6,7 % of the cost concerning rouble. Having added to it inflation in 11,9 %, we receive necessary for preservation of savings the rate in 18,6 % annual. However the maximum rates did not hold out even to 10 % annual. 9,95 % promised VTB 24, 8 % - Promsvjazbank, Investsberbank and Binbank.
In the second half of the year 2007 only some owners of contributions to euro could rescue means from inflation. Investments in other currencies also have depreciated. Inflation for the last half a year in annual calculation has made 11,8 %. The maximum rate of 11,3 % annual in roubles was offered by bank “ Ak the Leopard “. As a whole on the rate market seldom exceeded 8 % of the annual. Under such percent placed rouble means VTB 24, bank “ Uralsib “ Nomos - bank.
deposits in euro have not disappointed hope of the investors who have placed on them money in the summer of last year. The euro has grown on 3,5 %, or on 7 % of the annual. Considering inflation, the minimum rate under such contributions should make not less than 4,8 % annual not to bring losses to the owners. The maximum rate was offered by Binbank - 7,45 % annual that has poured out in 5,3 % of the revenue. In Promsvjazbanke and bank “ Petrokommerts “ rates reached 6,5 % annual, and in the Savings Bank and Alpha bank - to 5,25 % annual.
for owners of dollar contributions the situation reminds a vicious circle: from terms of investments level of losses changes only. Owners of deposits in dollars could count on the income only at an investment of means at least under 21,6 % annual. The dollar has depreciated for last two quarters almost on 10 % annual. The maximum rate was offered by the Baltic bank - 8,3 % annual. The minimum loss, thus, has made 13,3 % annual.
the inflation which has made in annual calculation for the last quarter 2007 of 16,4 %, has left investors in losses irrespective of currency. Banks did not offer such rates even under annual deposits. 9,5 % in roubles were reached by the rate in bank “ Globeks “ no more than 5,25 % promised the Savings Bank; to 8,65 % and 8,55 % annual - the Baltic bank and Binbank accordingly.
the euro concerning rouble for last three months has become stronger on 1,6 %, or on 6,4 % in recalculation for a year. However high inflation has not allowed to keep means for contributions. The minimum losses were incurred by investors of bank “ Globeks “ which accepted the European currency on the three-monthly deposit, promising to 7,5 % annual. The loss has made 2,5 % in annual calculation. Rates above 6 % offered Binbank, URSA Bank and Impeksbank - 6,35, 6,5 and 6,5 % accordingly.
any surprises have not brought three-monthly deposits in dollars. The dollar has fallen in price for the last quarter on 1,6 %, or on 6,4 % in recalculation for a year. The maximum rate under such contributions offered URSA Bank - 8,3 % that has brought taking into account inflation of 14,5 % of annual dead loss. JUniastrum the bank promised to pay 7 % annual, the Savings Bank, Bank of Moscow and bank “ Uralsib “ gave 4,75 %. But anyway all last year was unprofitable for contributions to dollars.