Legends about a paper fortressFrom the beginning of last year the domestic stock market has endured four scale corrections. There has now come the period of relative calm so it is a high time to look back back and to draw some conclusions. “ money “ represent a rating of crisis stability of the Russian actions.
a twilight of the gods
Unresolved problems, most likely, will have an effect on economy of the USA yet time. It means, as to the Russian share market not to avoid corrections, about depth and which duration it is possible to guess only. Obviously one: any investor does not receive pleasure, observing of how its investments thaw.
though at each crisis the features, the Russian investment community were used some by universal rules of preservation of means. The first - flight in action of the oil and gas companies which were traditionally ranked as investments with a low share of risk. This conviction followed from this that the record prices for oil simply should render supports to the market. In first half of 2007 of analytics still considered that any storm goes to oil papers only on advantage. Becoming cheaper, they only become more attractive from the investment point of view. However, despite a brilliant conjuncture, hopes of investors have not justified from - for decrease in profitability of branch and increase in expenses of the companies. Negative dynamics of sector throughout 2007 has dispelled a myth about safety of investment in it. In 2008 the tendency has remained. During January correction the oil and gas index of RTS has decreased on 22 %.
the Second stereotype allocated with stability “ blue “ counters and actions of the companies with the state participation. First of all papers got to this list “ Rosneft “ “ Gazprom “ the Savings Bank and VTB. Analysts recognised, what not all papers from this list possessed fundamental signs to endure strong movement downwards without essential losses. But interest in their destiny of state structures should rescue “ counters “ from depreciation and to provide psychological comfort to the investor.
however here again the theory has dispersed from practice. During corrections of 2007 of loss, for example, under actions “ Rosneft “ and to RTS index were approximately at one level. During January correction the divergence has reached 7 % and was not in favour of an oil paper. In July - August, 2007, at the height of mortgage crisis, mistrust to financial sphere has extended and on the Russian banks. Actions VTB and the Savings Bank have lost on 20 - 21 %. The financial index of RTS has decreased on 16 %, having outstripped on rates of decrease the others sektory and a summary index of RTS which for the same period has lost 13 %. In January the situation has a little improved: Losses of actions of banks and RTS index were balanced. But for the papers which are carrying out a role “ protective “ they have appeared on - former are great: actions VTB have lost 14,46 %, the Savings Bank - 15,77 %.
the Similar situation has developed and for the majority “ blue “ counters. Throughout the considered periods the index of RTS consisting mainly from liquid actions, on rates of decrease advanced an index of the second echelon of RTS - 2. So, during January correction RTS index has lost 15 % whereas RTS - 2 has decreased on 10 %.
Change of priorities
Stability - the characteristic changeable. “ speaking about stability of those or other actions during crises, it is necessary to mean that “ protective “ properties depend on set of factors which change in due course. So during any moment the action can be “ protective “ and next time - already is not present “ - the main analyst UK " marks; Kapital “ Sergey Karyhalin.
While the external background was moderately - positive for the Russian stock market, the developed installations allowed to minimise losses during splash “ bear “ moods in the Russian market. After its influence became negative, volatilnost the domestic market has considerably increased. To be guided by a liquid first echelon which is most sensitive to external fluctuations, it became unprofitable. Therefore property “ stability “ experts even more often allocate actions of the second and third echelons to which before trust was much less.
“ papers of the second and third echelons are less sensitive to external fluctuations and react to them with a certain time log, that is a bit later, than blue chips “ - analyst IK " shares the supervision; Veles - the Capital “ Marina Irkli. “ In an adverse conjuncture in world stock markets more steadily on the Russian platforms actions of the second echelon traditionally look. Certainly, not all successively, and what are attractive from the fundamental point of view that is defined by current underestimation, an accessory to branch with a favorable conjuncture, and also presence of so-called investment idea “ - leading analyst GK " considers; Region “ Konstantin Guljaev. “ last bearish movements in the market have been connected with external problems, therefore for the Russian market orientation of the company to internal demand " has great value; - analyst IK " adds; finam “ Denis Gorev.
Judging by words of experts, in the created situation to be steady, the action should combine following properties: to be not too liquid, fundamentally attractive, but thus underestimated; Its emitter should be guided by internal demand and have supervising shareholder.
We have conducted own research in attempt to find out action which least lost in the price during last four decrease. Corrections considered by us covered following time intervals: on February, 7th - on March, 26th, 2007, on April, 24th - on May, 29th, 2007, on July, 23rd - on August, 21st, 2007 and 15 - on January, 23rd, 2008. In March RTS index has decreased on 10 %, in May - on 11,6 %, in August - on 13 %. Last and strongest blow has had on the middle of January when RTS index has lost 15 %, having rolled down to 1980 points.
the technique of drawing up of a rating was following. At first we have chosen 25 most liquid actions according to stock exchanges of the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange and RTS. Then have analysed their behaviour during each of four corrections. In each case the steadiest action received 25 points, taken the second place - 24 and etc. (Except for March correction of 2007 when actions VTB yet were not in the market; in this case to these papers average has been appropriated under other actions an estimation - 13,5 points). The sum of the typed points also became value of a rating - numerically it is just equal to percent from the greatest possible result (100 points).
the Majority of the actions which have got in leaders of a rating (see the table), belongs to sectors to which past year the conjuncture favoured. This factor explains stability of actions of the metallurgical companies (“ a Mechel “ MMK, “ the Pole Gold “), manufacturers of coked coal (mine “ Raspadsky “) and potash fertilizers (“ Uralkaly “) . Production of the companies of ferrous metallurgy - “ a Mechel “ and MMK - it is used in bystrorazvivajushchihsja sectors of domestic economy - building, car industry, the trumpet industry. In 2007 of the price for it in home market have grown on 15 %. Simultaneously the prices on zhelezorudnoe raw materials (ZHRS) and the coked coal necessary by manufacture of steelmaking production, also constantly grow from - for a demand disbalance - offers on external and home market. It has given good support to the prices for a steel and coal actives.
experts are assured that the favorable external background will allow the companies involved in manufacture of a steel, to improve the financial indicators and in 2008. By estimations, the prices for coked coal and ZHRS in 2008 can increase on 40 - 60 %, by steelmaking production - on 15 %. And actions MMK, “ a Mechel “ and mines “ Raspadsky “ Despite fundamental appeal, were not object of investment especially popular in weights. Therefore they managed to keep high potential of growth. “ considering a rise in prices for raw materials, such companies are not only steady, but also show excellent dynamics of growth of a course stock value. Therefore they can be chosen not only as protective tools, but also as the tools allowing essentially to increase the capital “ - the analyst on metallurgy IK " considers; Tsentrinvest Sekjuritis “ Evgenie Bulanov.
in its opinion, now interest of investors to the prices for the raw materials used in ferrous metallurgy, blocks even attention to gold cost. And during the crisis moments gold is traditionally used as a protective active. The prices for him continue to establish new records. Therefore it is quite logical that actions of the gold mining company have got to number of the papers steadiest against crises " also; the Pole Gold “ .
Actions “ Uralkalija “ also concern the papers which have resisted during last four corrections thanks to a brilliant conjuncture - and as it is paradoxical, to own failures. For last year the prices for potash fertilizers have grown more than on 70 %, having exceeded $350 for ton. And before it flooding in 2006 of a site on mine BKRU - 1 near Berezniki where about 25 % of breed for manufacture of chloride potassium were extracted, has essentially reduced the price of shares of company. The probability of that, as in 2008 of the action " is great; Uralkalija “ and other manufacturers of mineral fertilizers will appear in the list steady. Growth of quotations is urged on also by a rise in prices for raw materials against global deficiency of potash fertilizers - by the most modest estimations, in 2008 their cost will increase on 20 - 30 %.
Stability of actions of telecommunication sector was showed basically thanks to speculative movements which became more active just during market falling. To the full it concerns actions “ Rostelecom “. They are more vulnerable in long-term prospect and can easily lose immunity to market corrections. The large order for buying up of these papers has provided with it strong growth and the same revaluation on all fundamental indicators. “ it is impossible to consider these papers protective to the full - their protective function has tactical character only on the near future “ - Denis Gorev considers. At the same time stability of actions of MTS experts recognised as more well-founded. “ the company shows stable financial results, and it is focused basically on home market which will suffer from problems in the world financial markets " a little; - the director of analytical department FK " believes; Opening “ Halil Shehmametev.
the Strong hand of majority shareholders and strategic interest kept during the periods of falling of stock market of the action “ Mosenergo “ and OGK - 5. Feature of the power companies that they, as well as the consumer sector companies, to a lesser degree react both to the external crisis phenomena, and on the internal. Current consumption the population and the enterprises will increase only - by expert estimations, on 4 - 5 % annually. Stable financial receipts should support quotations of these actions. However, last year their actions became strategic investors less liquid and expensive at the expense of buying up. In a case with “ Mosenergo “ hearings went that interest to actives of the power company is shown by the structures close to “ to Gazprom “. In a case with OGK - 5 majority shareholder of company Enel declared the offer under actions OGK - 5 and bought up them in the market. pereotsenennost leaves it of less chances for the further growth. But presence of the principal shareholder gives stability. “ presence in actions of the majority shareholder is one of key factors of stability, - tells Halil Shehmametev. - Speculators simply have no possibility “ to disperse “ papers. It is possible to consider this circumstance as the long-term factor of stability that allows to carry papers to “ protective “ “.