Brewers have welded onSome years ago the large brewing companies prepared for market stabilisation, but moderately optimistical forecasts of development have appeared inexact - the market has again started to grow dynamically. In 2007, according to the Union of the Russian brewers, industrial production level has exceeded a psychological boundary in 1 mlrd has given and has made 1,16 - 1,19 million hectolitres a year.
from a taiga to the British seas
Scales of activity of manufacturers of beer are shown visually by their contribution to economic indicators of the food-processing industry. For example, 22 % of the means enclosed in the last two days in fixed capital pishchevikov, have been invested by the brewing companies, and the branch share in gain total amount makes 12 % (and it if not to consider the paid VAT and excises).
the data of three quarters 2007 Published by Rosstatom shows 20 - percentage growth of capital investments. Brewers continue to direct the profit to manufacture, and the volume of investments will be not smaller, than in previous years. Possibly, it will make more than 22 mlrd rbl. from which 83 % will be provided by own means of the companies. The basic volume of investments - about 80 % - goes on purchase and modernisation of the equipment for beer manufacture.
till 2005 end of consolidation of the market was the main reason of start of set of investment projects. As consequence, today there were very few independent enterprises appreciable in the market is Joint-Stock Company “ MPBK “ Ochakovo “ “ and Open Society “ Tomsk beer “.
In parallel with acquisitions the large companies optimised the regional industrial structure. This process is not finished and today. “ Now there are regions, where a beer consumption level per capita more low, than average on the country. As dynamics of economic development of regions approaches them to level of Moscow and other big cities, the brewing companies expect the further growth of sales volumes in regions owing to increase in consumption of beer per capita “ - tells Nadezhda Hotina, the director for corporate questions SABMiller RUS.
the Fresh impulse has given to dynamics of investments 10 - percentage growth of consumption in 2006. Second half of year when it was already clear became the critical period that the requirement of the regional markets exceeds the look-ahead. That it to cover, brewers have started to increase actively capacities of the existing enterprises and to build new, to increase a stream of the money resources enclosed in the equipment, logistics and warehouses. Brewers have concentrated special attention to development of industrial base in east regions of the country which, according to experts, become in the near future the basic field of competitive struggle.
so, the personal computer “ Baltic “ in the end of May has opened new factory in Novosibirsk productivity of 45 million has given that will increase existing total capacities of the company more than by 10 %. “ It is one of the largest investment projects in the Novosibirsk region. Volume of investments - ˆ134 million “ Baltic - Novosibirsk “ becomes the modern enterprise of brewing branch working on the newest European technologies “ - the director of branch " has noted; Baltic - Novosibirsk “ Sergey Skoromkin.
After “ Baltic “ the project on erection of new factory in Siberia company SUN InBev has been started. As the senior manager on corporate communications of the company Alexey Shavenzov, " has informed; to the enterprise it will be directed more ˆ80 million investments, and capacity of factory will make about 24 million has given. Last year we have successfully spent test cookings at this enterprise. We hope that building will be shortly finished also we can please inhabitants of region with production made on Angarsk branch SUN InBev “.
already available capacities in Siberian region continues to develop actively Heineken. As to us have informed in a press - company service, till 2007 in building of new shop of pouring and a logistical complex on “ to the Siberian brewery Hejneken “ it has been invested over 755 million rbl. Till the end of 2008 Company Efes is planned to invest in addition an order of 545 million rbl.
has carried out modernisation of the Novosibirsk enterprise of group “ the Red East “ right after acquisitions therefore its capacity in 2006 - has grown 2007 to 30 million has given.
not less hot investment situation is marked in the Volga region where against a dense population and favorable development of an economic conjuncture the reserve of free market space still is rather great. The loudest project of 2007 in Privolzhsky region became more than triple increase in capacities of the Volga region leader of branch “ Baltic - Samara “ to 65 million has given beer in a year, in cost from above ˆ100 million in 2007 the branch volume of output has grown in comparison with 2006 on 80 % and has made more than 43 million has given. “ start of the second turn of the enterprise has allowed us not only considerably to increase volumes of output, but also to expand production assortment. The factory has mastered release of new grades, including licence beer Tuborg, “ Baltic N5 “ “ Baltic N7 “ “ JArpivo “ and also beer in packing new to the Russian manufacturers - bank of 1 l “ - the director of branch " has underlined; Baltic - Samara “ Alexey Ilyin . the Company strengthens leadership in the region market. According to agency “ Business of the Analyst “ a market share “ Baltic “ in the regional market has grown in comparison with 2006 on 4,6 % and makes 37,9 %.
Extensive modernisation of the Perm branch is spent by the second for volumes of regional sales manufacturer SUN InBev, by a season of 2008 already having increased capacities to 35 million decalitres.
investment interest to this region and at company Heineken does not cool down. Within last two years appreciable capital investments have been carried out in KPBN “ SHihan “ in Sterlitamak. Till 2006 the group invested in development of the Bashkir industrial complex over 542 million rbl., and in 2007 the company has in addition directed even more 400 million rbl. Besides, in the end of 2006 has been declared plans to invest in Nizhniy Novgorod “ Volga “ ˆ60 million for the purpose of triple increase in capacities. The necessary areas for manufacture expansion have been received for the acquisition account hladokombinata “ Oksky “. Since 2008 in company plans in addition to invest more ˆ100 million in brewery development.
company SABMiller RUS to spring of 2009 plans to finish brewery building in Ulyanovsk productivity of 30 million has given in a year. In territory of Russia the Volga region enterprise becomes the second industrial active of the company. “ a following stage of development of the company in Russia is creation of new brewery so that our capacities corresponded constantly to a growing demand for our production, - the director for manufacture SABMiller RUS Martin About ` explains Kif (Martin O ` Keeffe). - To the Ulyanovsk region, in particular in the Zavolzhsky industrial zone, we were involved with a favorable investment climate in region, and also support from regional administration. Besides, a positive role the geographical position of Ulyanovsk favourable from the point of view of transportation of raw materials and finished goods has played. Brewery building in the Ulyanovsk region will allow us to strengthen a company position in the markets of the Volga, Ural and Far East regions of Russia “.
And, certainly, regional investment picture will not be full if not to note the high investment rates of group Efes put in 2006 in Ufa “ Amstar “ and also integration into structure of the company of the Kazan association “ the Red East “. It seems that in scales of national market Efes has reached optimum industrial potential, at least on the nearest some years, and will concentrate now first of all on organic growth. The current result of development of group of companies Efes in Russia was brought by the general director of group Tugrul Agyrbash: “ Really, during 2006 - 2007 the big work on integration of the Kazan and Novosibirsk enterprises into group structure has been made. Today into group Efes to Russia enters five breweries and four solodovni. Following the results of 2007 Efes has shown essential growth of sales - 20 %, it above, than growth of the beer market as a whole. Thus the company has rather aggressive plans on the further active development of the Russian market, and, naturally, in it she leans against full readiness of existing capacities “.
the Companies which have increased the industrial potential, have not lost at all. Rates of increase of the market were accelerated, and volume of output in 2007, by various estimations, has made 1160 - 1197 million has given that means 16 - 20 - percentage growth of branch. According to operative given Rosstata, manufacture dynamically accrued in first half of 2007, having reached surprisingly high indicators in June. Then the branch worked on a limit of capacities. But the subsequent decrease in rates of increase of consumption of the beginning concerning of a season has led to some overproduction of production. In July brewers already worked in quieter mode.
as it is visible, dynamics of last two years was unexpected. Still three years ago representatives of the companies and experts spoke about market saturation. Any scenario should consider a current trend which assumed delay of rates of development. But already it is necessary to speak about change of the fundamental conditions defining sales volumes of beer.
the reliable and clear precondition of growth was that fact that the Russian consumption level of beer below Central European and should increase. It is clear that with growth of incomes of the population and increase of availability of foodstuff them buy more, while the market is not sated yet. Nevertheless unlike many other things FMCG - categories beer has an important feature - its consumption is influenced seriously by the seasonal factor. The heat in the beginning of a season of sales pleases the second year brewers and fans of an intoxicated drink. However it is difficult to explain so serious growth of the market only warm weather. There is the general " more likely; softening “ structures of consumption of alcohol. For example, the provided and pragmatic Europeans drink more beer and wine, preferring to its hard liquor.
the Russian buyer at a choice of a drink with “ in degree “ Too becomes more attentive to possible consequences for the health. Thereupon the director for work with clients “ Nielsen Russia “ Ilona Lepp marks evolution in preferences of Russians: “ One of long-term tendencies of development of alcoholic categories - switching of consumers on “ soft “ and also more expensive and qualitative alcohol “. The company “ Nielsen Russia “ estimating dynamics of sales in the alcohol market, informs that the first place in 2007 with growth of 31 % was occupied with a category “ beer “ developing at the expense of a bonus segment, and in natural expression the retail turn of a category has grown on 17 %.
By data “ Analytics Business “ rates of increase were a bit more modest, but also very high: “ By our estimations, in 2007 the Russian beer market has grown on 15 % on volume and has reached 1105 million has given. In money terms growth was even more expressed (24 % in roubles) - at the expense of a rise in prices and structural changes in the market, connected with consumer demand displacement aside more vysokotsenovyh categories “ - tells Snezhana Ravljuk, the head of direction Ad Hoc of the company “ Business of the Analyst “.
From the point of view of price segmentation of the market of beer this effect has poured out in increase in a share of cheap production against stably high growth of sales of bonus and licence brands. By data “ Analytics Business “ srednetsenovoj the segment remains to the largest, but the beer market becomes more and more “ polar “.
Popularity of expensive brands quite speaks growth of incomes of the population and premializatsiej market FMCG as a whole, the certain role is played also by marketing activity of brewers.
advancing growth of sales of cheap beer, according to audit “ Analytics Business “ It is connected with growing popularity of beer in large PET - packing (more than 2). As a rule, such container is chosen by the consumer which drinks beer in the company and wishes to save a little. Similar change in segmentation of the market of beer just also can be connected with a tendency of replacement of cheap strong alcohol.
the boom krupnolitrazhnoj container in Russia started in 2006. Then brewers practically have one after another started to let out production in PET - packing of 2,5 l, and start by company SUN InBev of marks “ the Fat man “ and “ BagBir “ in a five-litre format it is possible to name apogee of this process. Initially tendency to “ to integration “ has mentioned only marks discount and to a lesser degree srednetsenovogo a segment, but last year has promoted above, without having passed even a licence niche. So, after occurrence spreading earlier only in “ glass “ “ Botchkarev “ and “ Baltic N3 “ (Flagman marks of companies Heineken and “ Baltic “) In litre plastic the Dutch holding has expanded habitual borders PET - a segment, having let out in similar container on volume licence Zlaty Bazant. We will add that engine capacity growth has concerned also a can segment where now in litre packing the most sold Russian brand " is presented; Baltic N3 “.
Increasing a packing format, manufacturers go on possible decrease marzhinalnosti, and as the main driver of this process the increase in sales at the expense of originality and expansion of the consumer offer acts.
by market consideration through a spectrum of trade channels it is possible to allocate a significant trend - transformation of market structure towards increase in consumption of beer through channel HoReCa. “ According to researches “ Analytics Business “ Now channel HoReCa share in the Russian beer market makes about 9 % in volume indicators and 16 % in cost expression, - Maxim ShChetin, the sales manager of beer on draught of Open Society " makes comments on a situation; the personal computer “ Baltic “ “. - at preservation of developed dynamics of growth of the income per capita in the near future it is possible to expect growth of a segment of immediate consumption on 10 % a year that twice more than predicted rates of the general gain of the beer market for 2008 “.
For last year arrangement “ beer “ forces in a root has not exchanged. The market leader - the brewing company " has most vigorously continued to strengthen positions; Baltic “. It is characteristic that in the first quarter the leading manufacturer has left all competitors on the market gain a number of successful marketing innovations became which main precondition. However as approaching the end of the year the basic four of persecutors - SUN InBev, Heineken, group Efes and SABMiller RUS (the companies proranzhirovany on market shares in natural expression in 2007. - a comment red. ) - could show forward improvement of market indicators. In particular, structure a brand - portfolio SABMiller RUS and strategy of market advancement conceptually connected with it are mainly focused on a bonus segment that coincides with a vector of market development and finds corresponding otrazhenie in totals.
as the data " testifies; Analytics Business “ on audit of retail trade, working on high marzhinalnoj as a component last year SABMiller RUS on cost indexes could rise on the third place in a market rating.
rather warm weather in 2007 favoured to brewers. But from - for nature whims the European union has collected a small harvest grain, and barley malt in the world market began not to suffice. The western manufacturers was in a fever in 2006, but in the past season the situation became critical, there was a severe shortage of qualitative raw materials. If in the summer of 2006 legislators of the market - the French traders - shipped the most perfect barley at the price ˆ119 for ton today do not hasten to sell raw materials of low quality and on ˆ330.
In Russia the barley crop was not record, but can cover current requirements of manufacturers of malt and brewers. Problem in that the prices in the Russian market of agricultural products inevitably follow the world. Therefore in 2007 to contain cost price growth it was possible to those brewing companies which actively developed a raw-material base.
when - that this employment could seem unimportant as distracted means from manufacture and marketing fights, and the barley market was habitually stable. Nevertheless own barley and malt allow to provide quality of raw materials and reliable deliveries. Brewers closely co-operate with agricultural manufacturers, supervising all their work - from deliveries of a seed material and a crop rotation before finished goods storage on elevatorah. Therefore it is quite possible to consider many companies not only beer, but also agrarian.
Dannye Rosstata show growth of a share of brewers in total amount of manufacture of malt. After summarising of 2007 it is expected that it will reach 60 %. Comparison of volumes of output of malt and beer of the separate companies allows to give the following tentative estimation: SUN InBev will keep leadership on release of malt among brewers and almost completely will provide itself with the raw materials, the second place remains for “ Baltic “. But the leader of the market makes and buys at affilirovannoj the companies “ Suffle “ less than half of consumed malt.
company Heineken also develops own raw-material base. As Anna Meleshina, the director for public relations of group of companies Heineken in Russia, " has informed; in 2007 the company invested over 70 million rbl. in development solodovni on “ to Brewery Hejneken Baikal “ in Irkutsk “.
the Question of the price of malt and, accordingly, the cost price always was key by manufacture of inexpensive beer. For example, “ Ochakovo “ and “ the Red East “ Focused on this segment, in a condition completely to provide with raw materials the manufacture and even to deliver malt on other breweries. So, integration “ the Red East “ has allowed group of companies Efes not only considerably to improve the regional industrial base, but also almost half to cover requirements for malt.
in 2008 the situation in the market and in branch will be enough ambiguous. “ growth level last two years was strong enough and obviously should lower rates and be stabilised in the future. However unpredictable legislative initiatives and the unjustified excise policy can make serious impact on rates of development of the industry “ - considers Nadezhda Hotina.
this year brewers should cope 33 - percentage growth of the excises, the new prices for raw materials and it is permanent a growing competition. The basic risks consist in essential restriction of places of consumption and beer sale - the State Duma prepares the corresponding law. But, as it is visible, the consumer sector confidently grows, and Russians are switched with strong to weak alcohol so prospects of the market of beer look not bad.