Rus News Journal

The world currency markets

How many to dollar help, the mark is all the same stronger

the Situation again all the week long developed not in favour of the American currency. Past Friday dollar quotations to DM have decreased to minimum for last two months of a mark. And it as it has appeared, was not the limit. On Monday the dollar has continued landslide falling in relation to German currency, and only care of the dealers who were afraid of sudden intervention by Bundesbanka in process kursoobrazovanija, has allowed it to be kept above a mark 1,38. It is necessary to tell that the dollar has appeared not a unique victim of DM - the similar fate has comprehended the French franc and Italian lira.

Analyzing the reasons of prompt falling of dollar in relation to mark in the end of the past week, the majority of analysts has come to a conclusion that sharp strengthening of German currency in relation to other European monetary units became the important factor which has caused such development of a situation. The lyre has given the first failure. And without that not too steady, its positions have been definitively undermined by an aggravation of a political situation in Italy. As a result the local currency has undergone the deepest falling for last 11 weeks, having decreased only for one day (on October, 20th) with 1127,5 to 1147 lyres/ DM. Have not rescued it even effort of Bank of Italy, trying to prevent excessive falling of lyre. According to Milan dealers, the main bank of Italy has interfered with a course of the auctions when the lyre has already fallen to 1139.
Positions dojchmarki also have considerably become stronger after promulgation of the data about growth of monetary stocks of the country. It meant that in the nearest some weeks Bundesbank will not reduce key interest rates.
has not avoided a sad fate and the French franc, as well as the Italian lira, got under influence of political scandals in the country top management. Besides, the majority of dealers with the big scepticism the prime minister - the minister of France Alan Zhjuppe has concerned priority directions of the financial policy, spent. But to tell that political disorders became the major factor which has caused falling of the French currency, it is impossible. Many analysts, including economist Merrill Lynch Darren Williams, are inclined to believe that franc positions have been in a greater degree undermined just by excessive strengthening of DM to lyre. As he said, those participants of the market who have made the decision on dump of francs, being guided only by political factors, can strongly regret about it. So the reasons of falling of a dress coat consist in aggregate factors among which are present both purely political moments, and weakness of dollar and other European currencies, and also obviously premature decision of Bank of France on decrease in interest rates under one-day credits with 7,25 to 7 % of the annual.
by the way, inopportuneness of such decision of the main French bank, by estimations of some analysts, can put the strongest pressure upon franc in the near future. So, economists notice that if within the next few days the Bank of France will not crawfish and will not raise the rate under one-day credits, franc quotations quite can will fall below a mark 3,55 FrF/ DM. While the French currency has not fallen so low, but nevertheless franc decrease was notable enough - past Friday quotations have decreased with 3,5090 to 3,5213.
Against such strengthening of positions of German currency dollar increase, take it a place, would look miracle. The miracle, of course, has not occurred, and past Friday the American currency at the London exchange auctions for the first time for last two months has punched a mark 1,40 and has rolled down to 1,3980. On Monday it was found out, as 1,39 not a limit, - the dollar has continued falling as in Europe, and in the homeland, having fallen to 1,3815 on London and to 1,3842 on nju - jorkskih the auctions.
first signs of crisis of a tendency were outlined only on Tuesday when participants of the market have preferred to operate more carefully and made active sale of German currency, being afraid of intervention from party Bundesbanka. It is necessary to tell that dealers had essential enough occasions to similar fears. In particular, the president of the main financial department of Germany Hans Titmajer has made the statement that strengthening of German currency is represented to it excessive and Bundesbank will use the best efforts to return succession of events in the market in a habitual channel. Mister Titmajer has shown quite good qualities of the diplomat, having declared also that the management of Bundesbanka aspires to mutually advantageous cooperation with financial departments of other countries, and the neglect to problems of neighbours is not inherent in German bankers. It is no wonder that after such statements many participants of the market have considered necessary to dump a part of the accumulated marks. As a result the dollar has risen on 0,5 pfenniga to 1,3865.