For that to wait from the power?
Even consideration of a nominee of the chairman of the Central bank, planned this week, grows dim before a question which can be brought tomorrow for discussion the State Duma. Last week persistent work of parliamentary fraction of Democratic party of Russia at last - that has yielded the fruits: the necessary number of signatures of deputies to initiate in the Duma voting about trust to the government is collected. For the first time since October, 1993 parliamentary approach to the government has received chance of success - events in the south of Russia have provided rebellious fraction of new allies. The vote of no confidence to the government can become political sensation with the most unexpected consequences. Which will bring to it glory of event of year.
it is possible, this some exaggeration. Parliamentary elections become event of year nevertheless. Nevertheless the first time for short history of mutual relations of the government of Tchernomyrdin all for the present with the State Duma last can collect necessary quantity of votes to demand from the president of change of an office. The shock endured by the country last days, has opened before potential participants of election campaign tempting prospects - poekspluatirovat the raged emotions in political ends and to direct discontent against considered while the favourite of pre-election race premerskogo the block. The potential effect of such course is too obvious not to use the first opportunity. A question, however, in that, how much present irreconcilable opposition is capable to come out the winner from this fight with the main political opponent. We will lay aside such time and again (and it is not unsuccessful) applied counterreception, as propaganda opposition “ working “ the governments and “ stirring “ parliament. Let`s put outside the brackets and Victor Tchernomyrdin`s ability in the fullness of time effectively a tax of. In propaganda war on either side of front professionals operate. Non-standard courses which can be undertaken within the next few days are more interesting. Particularly - on the eve of consideration of a question on mistrust to the government.
it is necessary to realise that expression of mistrust to the government present conditions (if not to consider probable propaganda effect) from the political point of view a little productively. According to item 3 of item 117 of the Constitution, the head of the state can ignore the first vote of no confidence in general. Absence as that independent economic policy of the government or any distinct from presidential political line of the prime minister transforms a vote of no confidence to the government into a vote of no confidence to the president. To consider that after that resignation of the prime minister, fondly enough will follow. It would be possible to assume that in these conditions Boris Yeltsin, not ready to reconcile to possible leaving next year in resignation, will dare to play own game. However the oppressive prospect of infinite procedure of the coordination with the Duma of a new nominee of the prime minister (that is inevitable in case of resignation present) will force the president to react as - that differently. As office resignation is improbable, at the chairman of parliamentary fraction DPR Sergey Glazyev persisting in the aversion of an economic course of the government, there is only one way - to try to collect within the next three months votes for a repeated vote of no confidence. Only in this case the president will face a dilemma - to send the government in resignation (with Tchernomyrdin`s possible subsequent appointment fulfilling duties of the prime minister) or to dismiss the State Duma. On the threshold of parliamentary elections and as already now it is possible to assume, cardinal updating of structure of members of parliament to leave executive power in the country on and. An island of the prime minister much more risky than to dismiss the Duma. Therefore the variant of preservation of the government by dissolution of the lower chamber of parliament and in this case is more preferable.
last days the government, seemingly, adhered to rectilinear tactics, aspiring to counteract formation of the steady majority, concordant to support the resignation requirement. The requirement made by Glazyev about inclusion in the summons of a question on mistrust to the government was signed by 102 persons, and it left a place to illusions. But the fact that 228 deputies have unexpectedly supported the offer and have brought this question in the plan of session of the State Duma, speaks, more likely, about the programmed outcome of forthcoming voting. It gives the grounds to expect more refined steps from executive power.
independent initiation by the voting government about trust could become One of them. More precisely if to follow the formulation of point 4 of article 117 of the Constitution, the chairman of the government should put itself in the Duma the matter of confidence to an office. In this case any repeated votings in a current of three-monthly term it is not required: if trust to the government it is refused, the president in seven-day term solves, with whom to it to remain. Duma dissolution is now convenient first of all that the law on elections in the State Duma, born in the conditions of the mutual compromise, is not signed yet by the head of the state. The future elections (not later than in four months), hence, can pass as under this law (if the president signs it), and under the decree as it already was in December, 1993. As it is possible to assume, in the latter case elections will be organised by those rules as which the present ruling elite will consider for itself as much as possible convenient. And these rules will be, as blasphemously it sounds, to have even more legitimate character, than previous: now the law " becomes a legal basis of elections; About bases of suffrages of citizens of the Russian Federation “ accepted in the end of the last year.
the only thing “ but “ here can consist that the similar party can be effectively played only at active participation of the chairman of the State Duma. The procedural mechanism demands in this case the correct formulation of the question brought on voting of deputies. Ivan Rybkin`s desire be guided by interests of own pre-election struggle can to prevail. Nevertheless it is impossible to exclude that tomorrow (truth in the event that voting about a vote of confidence will really take place) the prime minister will make an attempt to use reception with statement of the matter of confidence to the government. In a combination to active operation of an image of the peacemaker and encouraging economic statistics the similar course can add some points to Tchernomyrdin as a policy though it is risky from purely hardware point of view. As it is caused valid, instead of imaginary desire of the president to keep this government. Anyhow, but forthcoming days will be, obviously, the most intense both for governmental body, and for a considerable part of members of the State Duma. It is not excluded that after numerous contacts between representatives of the resisting parties who are expected in these hours, the majority of deputies will prefer at the crucial moment checked up Roman principle “ In dubio abstine “ - if I doubt, I abstain.
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