Rus News Journal

Independent expert Dmitry Tratas

a price Question

the Question, how many will last falling of the Russian stock market, excites today each investor. All try to guess, when indexes will fall to a minimum and it will be possible to buy papers, firmly counting on growth of quotations. Investors are helped traditionally by the professional analysts, started to predict levels market a bottom practically from the decrease beginning. So, on May, 30th when RTS index has fallen to value of 1720 points, operating actives IK the North the Capital Alexander Baranov considered: RTS Index can descend on 1650 points, but from the point of view of intermediate term purchases already it is possible to buy the selected papers from blue chips... Some papers are at levels local a bottom the potential of quite good growth is at Nornikelja Surgutneftegaz the Savings Bank . Yesterday RTS index has stopped at level 1131,12 points. The auctions on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange and RTS interrupted on an hour owing to decrease in a technical index more than on 8 % in comparison with opening level. Analyst Quote. ru Evgenie Ogorodnikov wrote that on Wednesday on September, 10th the Russian stock market has reached the local bottom also that dollar easing will cause inflow of buyers on the market of oil futures that will push oil quotations upwards . Has not passed also three trading sessions as RTS index has punched predicted a bottom and the oil price has fallen below $100 for barrel.

under George Soros`s remark, the person capable precisely to predict minima and maxima of the markets, becomes first-ever trillionerom. In an arsenal of an analyst there are two powerful tools - technical and fundamental analyses. The technical analysis is based on studying of the schedule of the price, possible levels of support and resistance. But when investors are captured by a panic when the horror covers participants of the market at thoughts on possible consequences of bankruptcy Lehman Brothers - believe, all is equal to the majority of investors, where there is a line of support of an index of RTS, the analytics drawn by imagination.

the same it is possible to tell and about efficiency of the fundamental analysis during restless time. For example, when analysts argue on fundamental appeal of the Russian market, they like to remember such indicator, as P/ E (the relation the price/ profit) which the is less, the better. At Lehman Brothers, whose actions cost one year ago $80, and now - $0,2, factor P/ E, calculated on profit for last year, makes 0,09 that it is much better than similar indicators of the majority, if not all Russian companies of the first echelon. And who now considers Lehman Brothers fundamentally attractive?

Neither technical, nor fundamental analyses will not help us to predict market crisis. But why to us so persistently impose this most a bottom almost without forcing to enter into the market and to shop? Here it is necessary to consider the factor of interest of professionals in the growing market. Really, if the market has grown, for example, on 50 % for a year, and operating the PIF will lose to the market 10 - 15 % investors will forgive it such inefficiency. Quite another matter, if the market for a year loses some tens percent, and to it losses from poor control of actives will be added. Here us also entice next market a bottom that the purchases new investors if have not broken a bearish tendency then have weakened it.

what to do to that investor who deliberates, whether it is time to it to buy on so attractive levels ? Patiently to wait. One - two days of speculative growth do not speak about tendency change. Only after indexes will show growth during several sessions successively under condition of positive moods among participants of the market, it is possible to start careful purchases. And concerning when it will occur, it will be amusing to read present forecasts in a week.