the general director of research agency “ Business of the Analyst “
- you suppose, what beer sales in Russia this year will appear below forecasts?
- We have started to reduce forecasts on market growth even in the summer. Originally at us growth of 6 % has been planned, in July we have lowered it to 4 %, now - to 1,5 %.
- In what a principal cause for revision of forecasts?
- In branch many connect delay of rates of increase with crisis, with decrease in consumer trust in general, with saturation of the market and other. All it, of course, takes place: the market cannot infinitely grow. Record growth of the market last year when beer consumption has grown on 12 %, and shipments have increased by 16 %, is an anomaly, anybody cannot understand till now up to the end why it has occurred. This year decrease has been partly caused by that distributors and retail sold the drains which have accumulated from last year in this connection manufacturers have been compelled to reduce shipments to first half of 2008. But a principal cause on which the forecast on a year should be reconsidered towards essential fall, are unsuccessful for brewers weather conditions.
- really the rain has appeared more perniciously for the companies, than those market processes which name now precisely repetition of Great depression?
- the Economic reasons, at least following the results of eight - nine months while influence it to a lesser degree. As to weather this summer was the cold and wet at least over the last ten years, and during a rain the desire to drink beer sharply begins to decline. We have data on monthly average temperature of air in more than 100 of the largest cities where there is an audit of the market of beer, everywhere it has appeared on five - six degrees below corresponding summer months of last year - in general, this year was strongly abnormal. Taking into account an economic crisis in 2009 we will receive zero dynamics but if there will be one more such summer, as this year the market in general can leave in a minus.
- and all - taki really crisis influence has appeared such mediated? After all not only the companies selling seasonal production, manufacturers of dairy products that is not connected in any way with weather conditions fix demand falling, but also, for example.
- Crisis still will influence branch. If position of consumers continues to worsen, that, naturally, there will be structural changes of the market: If till today the market grew at the expense of growth of segments of more expensive licence beer and beer local premium, that, having faced reduction of incomes, consumers will be switched on sredne - and nizkotsenovye segments. Probably that the part of buyers will be preferred in general by more effective from the point of view of a parity “ gramme - degree - copeck “ drinks, the same vodka.
- It turns out that manufacturers will appear in an inconvenient situation: on the one hand, objective saturation of the market, and with another - also impossibility to switch consumers on more expensive brands in the conditions of crisis. What by it to do?
- to Work over efficiency of business. If it is impossible to raise profit it is necessary in even bolshej to degree to reduce costs. To someone, probably, it is necessary to reduce employees or at least not to lift the salary. And then nevertheless will appear in one boat, means, to manufacturers of accessories and components to survive, it is necessary to reduce prices or at least to refuse their annual increase.
- it is curious that against decrease in rates of increase in Russia the American market even has shown growth. You as - that can explain it?
- it is difficult to tell, it is necessary to look at an alcoholic mix. For example, in America beer rather cheap, and strong alcohol costs essentially more expensively. Quite I suppose that in the USA, as well as in Russia, consumers in the conditions of crisis pass to cheaper alcohol - for them this beer.