Compulsory power efficiencyMonitoring/ power consumption
Speed of change of a situation in economy does not allow in an operative mode (to within a week) to speak about situation development in the industry. For this purpose in a sharp phase of crisis there are not enough reports of Rosstata. Tactical polls and advancing indexes also are not too effective. So, in published the day before “ the Bulletin of tactical polls “ Institute of a transitional economy Sergey Tsuhlo ascertains that event estimations “ already remind 90 - e years “ (estimations of solvent demand of the enterprises now correspond to peak falling of January, 1999 and summer of 1996). However other data IEPP is more optimistical that testifies: in many respects opinions and on actions of businessmen and an estimation are influenced by deficiency of the information and its delay. As already repeatedly marked “ “ In November - December the key question in the scenario of development of a situation - under the scenario " should be solved; landings “ or “ a collapse “ recession in the industry will develop.
not so much financiers, how many suppliers of transport services and especially - the electric power are as much as possible approached to the information on daily state of the economy. However the data about demand for energy directly depends on demand from municipal sector and in many respects - from the surrounding temperature. Analysts “ the Capital Renaissance “ in the yesterday`s review have tried to bypass this effect, having smoothed the data about demand for energy in the European part of Russia and beyond Ural Mountains on the data about temperature (the schedule see) - that is with the account “ heating “ demand for services of the former structures of the Russian Open Society “ UES of Russia “. Calculations have allowed “ the Renaissance to the Capital “ to name the review “ Demand for the electric power has decreased “. Having shown that behind a deduction “ Temperature conjuncture “ current consumption since August on the end of November has decreased, “ the Renaissance the Capital “ ascertained reduction in demand for energy on 4 - 6 % last days, and since August demand has decreased on 3 %. Dynamics of consumption became negative, by calculations “ the Capital Renaissance “ in the beginning of November (the schedule see). In a power supply system of Siberia where a share of power consumption of the industry above, confidently to speak about trend change it was possible already in second half of October, 2008.
confidently to speak about a choice from scenarios “ a collapse “ and “ landings “ on the basis of this data on - former it is impossible while probably to ascertain only that as of November, 24th (last data) to speak about scenario realisation “ a collapse “ there are no bases. Calculations “ the Capital Renaissance “ Show that as a whole demand for the electric power till the end of September, 2008 was above levels of the same period of 2007 (industrial production, according to Rosstata, kept in September growth), was invariable in October (on Rosstatu - growth of 0,6 %), has begun falling with the first of November on 5 - 10 %. However, in “ the Renaissance the Capital “ do also macroeconomic conclusions: the bank review opens the schedule ascertaining correlation of dynamics of gross national product and power consumption with 1992 for 2007.