Pound it is dashingthe Rich crop threatens with losses to dealers grain worldwide. But the Russian companies “ ahead of a planet of all “ - they and had not time to recustomize the Soviet system of import of grain for export.
“ millions tons of grain will decay. It not a price question. It simply is not claimed in the market “ - emotionally gesticulates from a conference tribune “ Agroholdings of Russia “ Igor Babayev, the president “ the National agroindustrial company “ (NAPKO). Participants of conference - colleagues Babayev - knowingly nod.
this year from fields have collected, according to the analytical centre “ Sovekon “ about 106 million tons of grain. “ it is a record under the relation to all Post-Soviet years “ - Nikolay Lychev, the editor-in-chief of magazine " marks ; the Agroinvestor “. It would Seem, an excellent occasion to pride. But instead of expected profits manufacture growth has brought to traders one problems.
“ now the conjuncture in the market develops not the most favorable. The prices are formed at rather low level as a result of a big crop grain not only in Russia, but also in the majority of other countries of the world which is the largest manufacturers grain “ - Maxim Kljagin, analyst UK " marks ; finam management “. Surplus of the offer has caused strong falling of the prices both on internal, and in the world market. “ last year the prices reached $400 - 500 for ton. Today, by our estimations for January, $165 are more expensive to sell the Russian grain (a standard fourth class) in the world market it is impossible “ - Nikolay Damians, the assistant to the general director " speaks ; the International grain company “.
In really unique situation there were Russian exporters. If to combine cost of grain for them to Russia and expenses on transportation to foreign buyers deliveries abroad appear unprofitable. On the foreground there was an acute problem of traders - storage and logistics.
that is had - we do not store
“ the elevatornaja group of the Russian Federation is antiques. Unfortunately, to store grain in such elevatorah at present costs it is absolutely impossible “ - Igor Babayev continues to get excited. The general capacity Russian elevatorov, by estimations of the Russian grain union, 95 million tons, 102 million more tons - barns at agricultural manufacturers. “ but to use elevatornye capacities it is possible only on 40 % “ - Arcady Zlochevsky, the president of the Russian grain union marks .
it “ greetings “ from the Soviet past: At the time of the USSR grain imported and, accordingly, stored mainly in consumption places, at mills or kombikormovyh factories. “ now consumers are not bought for all year at once - money is not present on the big parties and payment of annual storage. It turns out that in places of cultivation of grain it is a lot of, and storehouses do not suffice. In consumption places all just what isn`t needed: grains are not present, and storehouses stand thin “ - Arcady Zlochevsky continues.
Elevatory for the trader - the most suitable object for investment in which they willingly put means. For example, in 2004 the agroindustrial company “ agros “ and the French holding Sungrain SA entering into group Louis Dreyfus, have created “ Russian elevatornuju the company “ to which posesses a network elevatorov (among them “ Ipatovsky elevator “ “ Tatsinsky elevator “ “ Volgograd elevator “ “ Divnensky elevator “ “ Blagodarnensky elevator “ “ New Pavlovsk elevator “) .
After them “ to be bought “ became and “ the International grain company “ “ a daughter “ Swiss Glencore. In 2005 the company has got at “ Bread of Kuban “ 100 % of actions “ Timashevsky elevatora “ (Krasnodar territory) and 51 % of actions “ Obojansky elevatora “ (Kursk area). The Russian agroindustrialists too increase own capacities. In 2008 - 2009 NAPKO is going to construct four elevatora (capacity of 100 thousand and 300 thousand tons), total volume of investments is estimated in 1,4 mlrd rbl.
Approximate volume of investments into building elevatora on 20 - 25 thousand tons can be estimated in $3 - 4 million If to take 100 thousand tons and more investments will make from $15 million According to Maxim Kljagina, an average time of recovery of outlay of such projects - about three years.
“ here we and in hopre “
“ To carry “ - one more headache of traders. Park hoprov (cars - zernovozov. - the Council of Federation ) is reduced and makes 33,5 thousand pieces, from them under grain transportations 12,5 thousand is used, mark in the Russian grain union. “ Russian Railway structures own the basic share zernovozov. One part of cars is used not for the designated purpose (in them other cargoes are transported), another is worn strongly out “ - Nikolay Lychev speaks. In last season, for example, have out of operation left 1000 cars.
middle age zernovozov now 24,6 years, and it at a target date of service of 30 years. By 2015, according to the experts, from existing park there will be only 20 % of cars. “ considering forecasts of growth of manufacture to 125 - 140 million tons the next years and export of grain to 30 million tons, it is necessary in the nearest three - four years to construct a 16 thousand minimum zernovozov “ - Alexander Korbut, the vice-president of the Russian grain union marks .
cars in this season not such acute problem interrogated Council of Federation participants of the market, predictably, tell. A problem in tariffs. “ the small number zernovozov is in the property of traders, but it solves nothing: the main ways and the basic part zernovozov all the same belong to Russian Railway structures. Theoretically traders can though all zernovozy to buy up, but thus to take out nothing, without having agreed with a monopolist “ - Nikolay Lychev notices.
to agree - means to achieve decrease in tariffs. But while traders here have not succeeded. “ tariffs raised already three times this year “ - Nikolay Damians marks. Thus competitors - Americas, Canada - transport costs have less.
“ In the USA grain to ports deliver basically on Mississipi the cheapest river transport. Cost of transfer of grain more low approximately twice, than to Russia, and the general expenses for logistics on delivery of grain to a vessel is less on some tens percent “ - Andrey Sizov - younger, the chief executive of the centre " explains ; Sovekon “.
In 2007 the Russian grain union has achieved a discount for railroad rates. A problem that it operates at transportations on distances over 1100 km. “ it very much effectual measures, but it works at export of grain from Siberia and from the Far East. The discount operating and for export, since January, 1st, 2008 has been cancelled in connection with introduction of export duties. Duties have expired for a long time, and a discount have not returned “ - Arcady Zlochevsky tells. Under other offers concerning tariffs which the Russian grain union submitted to the government, decisions while are not present.
But to overcome kilometres are only a part of a problem way of the Russian exporter of grain.
export on ports
“ At us a backward infrastructure. Insufficient port transshipment capacities which besides it is primary, from Soviet period, have been focused on grain import “ - Nikolay Lychev considers.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the basic buyers of domestic wheat in first half of 2008 traditionally steels Egypt, India, Turkey, Jordan, Libya, Yemen, Tunis, Bangladesh, Israel, Greece, Italy. “ our basic commodity market, proceeding from territorial affinity and traditions of relations, - the Mediterranean. 70 - 75 % of shipments pass through Novorossisk sea trading port. It actually while unique who can accept “ panamaks “ (the vessels which maximum sizes allow to take place sluices of Panama canal, capacity to 70 thousand tons. - Council of Federation ) “ - Alexander Korbut speaks.
On not numerous ports such big loading lays down that at times they do not consult. So, in Novorossisk and East ports, according to the newspaper “ “ in November has accumulated according to 17,5 thousand and 26,5 thousand cars. And to carry grain through small ports (3 - 5 thousand tons) it is unprofitable for the exporter. Freight cost (payments for transportation on the sea) in shallow port in comparison with the deep-water can grow almost twice. It is necessary exporters “ to reserve “ places in ports.
“ that garantirovanno to provide to itself export, in the beginning of a season we incur before obligation port on transfer of certain volume of grain on contractual conditions “ - Nikolay Damians speaks. But in 2008 contracts with ports of a steel for exporters a debt hole in which money flow away. “ Now we will simply execute quotas at a loss. Or to pay penalties to port of $20 for each outstood ton “ - Nikolay Damians continues.
in all the crop is guilty. With all elevatorno - port problems traders lived worse - poorly while the world prices for grain allowed them to cover costs on storage and grain delivery. 2008 - j it has appeared fruitful on grain - and on problems for traders.
a crop of problems
“ Corn in Krasnodar territory on some fields now do not clean. What sense to clean? These are additional expenses in size about 500 rbl. on ton. To sell all the same it is unprofitable, the offered price is less than 2 thousand rbl. (below cost). In Russia the big crop and if surpluses not to take out it will even more reduce the prices and appeal of manufacture of grain “ - Nikolay Damians is assured.
All this year it is necessary for the state “ to pull out “ For export about 20 million tons of grain. Traders have taken out 10 million tons to an epoch of more favorable prices. The Rest to sell already it is more difficult. “ in the becoming cheaper world market nobody buys grain or buy it is not enough. Customers, having demands from traders on 2 million tons, buy only 150 thousand At such competition the price for tenders constantly decreases. I think that such situation will proceed all future season (agricultural year - from July till July of next year. - Council of Federation ) “ - Nikolay Damians estimates.
customers in the world market are state companies of the countries - importers. “ one of buyers of our grain are the countries of the Near East, - Nikolay Lychev tells. - Grain - the social product, and import, as a rule, is under state control. There are centralised structures which hold tenders between all global exporters. When the company wins the tender delivers this grain to state structures which already independently distribute it on the country “.
Grain can be sold as well on not state tenders. “ in Egypt, for example, a wide infrastructure. The companies specialising on it is export - import operations, spend auctions and further sell grain to end users. The intermediary on the intermediary is a normal market situation. I do not think that someone from the Russian traders has a base of the Egyptian flour-grinding enterprises at a rate of, for example, 1000 factories and it works, being guided directly by end users, it is irrational “ - Maxim Kljagin continues.
Rescue our souls
“ Export business since January for all exporters without an exception will be unprofitable “ - gives the unfavourable forecast Nikolay Damians. From - for all infrastructural problems it it is no wonder: The price in home market for traders turns out above, than on world. “ in January there is a possibility to sell grain for export for $155 - 165 maximum, and in Russia it to us will manage not more cheaply $170 “ - conducts calculation Nikolay Damians.
to compete in the world market, except as the price, in general - that, and nothing. Any grain, if it, for example, the fourth class, all over the world identical quality.
a real way out traders see in export grants. “ in our logistical chain decrease in the tariff and the prices for services in transfer, either its indemnification, or direct export subsidising on ton " is possible; - Nikolay Damians speaks.
in the cabinet to requests of traders have listened - the grain sector always had a strong lobby. On November, 20th in the government the series of measures on export stimulation has been approved. Direct grants will make from 708 - 966 rbl. for ton. Their total sum in 2009, at a rough guess, will make from 7 mlrd rbl. to 9,6 mlrd rbl.
Be distributed grants can under the European scenario when the special committee accepts demands from the several export companies. Each of them declares volumes of grain which it is ready to take out for export, and the size of the grants necessary for it thus. The committee chooses more effective exporter and compensates it losses from - for high internal costs or the low world prices for grain.
there is also other, long-term variant of succession of events. At the nearest neighbour and the competitor, Ukraine, with logistics where is easier - distances less, and it is more than deep-water ports, for example Odessa, Ilichevsky, Nikolaev, Mariupol and Kherson. “ at Ukraine capacities of port terminals exceed possibilities of manufacture of grain, there such competition as at us, is not present “ - Nikolay Damians admires at neighbour`s ports. By data “ finama “ as of the end of 2006 in Ukraine functioned about two tens only the state seaports total capacity of transfer of 164 million tons of dry and bulk cargoes in a year. Grains in 2007 have collected all 29,3 million tons.
association of efforts should be favourable to both countries. “ we could agree about any co-ordinated volumes vzaimozameshchenija grains. For example, Ukraine will start to sell for export more than the grain, we fill it in the country at the expense of the Russian. And the Kazakh colleagues will fill grain in Russia “ - Arcady Zlochevsky argues. Project discussions should begin this December.
in present conditions exporters literally words need to indulge in vain hopes. The forecast favorable. Wheat, by estimations of analysts, in a year can already grow in the price to $220 for ton - global shortage of the foodstuffs will prevail.