The European Central Bank has reduced the price of moneyrate Decrease by the European central bank (ETSB) to record-breaking low level of 2 % has caused reserved reaction of the investors anxious by an exit in the USA of the negative macroeconomic statistics. Management ETSB does not exclude that the rate will decrease and further. At the expense of it the rouble will become cheaper concerning dollar faster, than concerning euro.
yesterday ETSB in the fourth time since October, 2008 has lowered the key rate on 50 basic points, to 2 %. It is the lowest level of the rate of the European Central Bank for all time of its existence. For last four months the rate has decreased more than twice, on 2,5 %. Reducing cost of the all-European currency, the bank management tries to stimulate economy of the countries of an eurozone which in the third quarter 2008 has entered a recession phase. On a press - the conference devoted to decision ETSB, its head Jean - Claude Trishe has noticed that rate decrease became possible thanks to inflation delay in an eurozone.
this year one more large central bank reduced the key rate. On January, 8th the Bank of England has lowered the rate on 50 basic points, to 1,5 % that became the minimum value for all history of its existence. Then the British currency has fallen in price concerning dollar on 1,7 %. However yesterday reaction of investors was more reserved. The euro exchange rate concerning dollar has fallen to 0,7 % to the minimum value for last month $1,307. The European indexes on news about rate decrease have won back 0,7 - 0,8 % of morning decrease and left in a positive zone. “ more than 95 % of experts predicted rate decrease on 50 basic points and consequently have put it in estimations, - group economist Merrill Lynch on Russia and the CIS Julia Tsepljaeva marks. - If ETSB operated, as FRS which lowered the rate more strongly expectations reaction in the market would be strong and long “.
After publication of the next statistical data on economy of the USA investors have continued the bear game in stock market. In 16. 30 Moscow time the Ministry of Labour of the USA has informed that for a week which has come to the end on January, 10th, the number of initial requirements on unemployment benefit payment has jumped up on 54 thousand and has made 524 thousand Official data again have exceeded forecasts of analysts which waited an indicator at level of 500 thousand has not added enthusiasm to investors and the quarter reporting of bank JP Morgan Chase which has appeared better, than analysts expected. According to vice-president SI Capital Dmitry Sadovogo, the good reporting of bank has been completely levelled by the negative data on economy. As a result following the results of the auctions leading European indexes have lost 1,5 - 1,9 %. As of 20. 00 Moscow times index Dow Jones has decreased on 1,9 %, S &P - 500 has lost 2,25 %. The Russian indexes at the expense of the next stage of devaluation of rouble (the material see p. 2) showed again a different orientation. Following the results of the auctions the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has lost only 0,8 % and was closed on a mark 605,69 points. During the same time the index of RTS counted in dollars has fallen to 3,8 % to 569,12 points.
mister Trishe has not excluded the further decrease in the rate on 0,25 %, however has made a reservation that it is possible not earlier than March session ETSB. “ For struggle with retsessionnymi the processes developing in the European economy, ETSB will continue rate decrease, and it is not excluded that the next months it will fall to 1 % “ - analyst IK " considers; Aton “ Inga Foksha. In Great Britain and Canada the Central Bank rate makes 1,5 %, in Japan - 0,1 %, in the USA rate FRS makes 0 - 0,25 %. The further fall of rate ETSB will lead to that the euro will continue to become cheaper concerning dollar, therefore the further devaluation of rouble to bivaljutnoj to a basket will occur basically at the expense of dollar, analysts believe. According to the forecast of analysts “ Atona “ and JP Morgan the dollar exchange rate concerning rouble till the end of the first half of the year will grow to 35 - 36,4 rbl./ $ (growth on 9 - 13 %). During the same time the euro exchange rate will grow to 45 - 47,5 rbl./ ˆ (growth on 6 - 12 %).