Rus News Journal

Growth phantoms

on February, 18th the first deputy of the chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Alexey Uljukaev declared that the financial authorities will reduce volatilnost in the currency and share markets, the rouble exchange rate is stabilised in the near future, and further, probably, will start to grow. Theoretically currency market stabilisation should follow and stabilisation share and monetary - credit the markets, and then a long-awaited exit of economy from crisis pique. In favour of such scenario relative stability last months in the Russian stock market and the oil market, against - given Rosstata, forecasts of Ministry of economic development and trade and the next collapse of a rouble exchange rate akkurat that day when the vice-president of the Central Bank has acted with the statement speaks.

calculation points
First two weeks of February for the Russian economy became respite time. If in January RTS index has fallen to 14,6 %, and the dollar exchange rate has grown on 20,4 % in first half of February RTS index has grown on 19,9 %, and the rouble has become stronger in relation to dollar on 4,5 %. The Russian positive has been in many respects caused by stabilisation of the world prices for oil at level of $40 for barrel Brent.

In February rigid enough borders of corridors in which fast fluctuations of macroeconomic parametres were observed were defined. So, the world price for oil fluctuated in a corridor of $35 - 40 for barrel Brent, RTS index - in a corridor 500 - 700 points, and a rouble exchange rate - within the limits of a currency corridor of the Central Bank. In February of border of this corridor did not change: 39 - 41 rbl. in relation to bivaljutnoj to a basket.

thus, for any time relative balance has been reached. It is logical to raise the question: it is a respite before a following scale collapse, or crisis at last - that has reached a bottom, and fluctuations near to minimum levels are observed?

On behalf of the Russian financial authorities Alexey Uljukaev has tried to give the answer. On February, 18th in interview to agency the Prime - TASS he has declared: the Bank of Russia does not want to suppose too big volatilnost rouble. If there will be a big strengthening, then probably return movement... We will smooth excessive volatilnost rouble. Probably that on a close time interval of fluctuation will pass in area of the top border of a basket 39 - 41 rbl. But in the second half of the year I would consider strengthening of rouble by more probable within the limits of a basket, than easing .

Alexey Uljukaeva`s Optimism is based on alignment of trading balance. the positive trading balance following the results of January, preliminary, makes $9 billion Positive balance of the account of current operations following the results of January - $5 billion All it gives good prospect. I believe that the trading balance will be essentially positive following the results of 2009, will make some tens billions dollars. The balance of the current account will be though and less balance of the trading account, but too positive - it has explained.

it is valid, if at Russia the trading balance became again positive the Central Bank already does not have necessity to continue rouble devaluation. Also it is not excluded that the rouble of the bottom has already reached and in the long term will become stronger only.

program failure
But optimism of the Central Bank divide not all even in the Russian power. For example, on February, 17th Ministry of economic development and trade has reconsidered the forecast socially - economic development of Russia in 2009 towards deterioration. The deputy minister of economic development of the Russian Federation Andrey Klepach has declared: the Forecast of decrease in gross national product of the country in 2009 is changed from 0,2 % to 2,2 %. The estimation of reduction expected following the results of year promproizvodstva from 5,5 % to 7,4 % is reconsidered also. Thus inflation will be established on to a plug from 13 % to 14 %. And investments will decrease for 14 %. Earlier it was planned that investments into fixed capital in 2009 will decrease only on 1,7 %. Actually, in many respects from - for it forecast deterioration under gross national product and on promproizvodstvu " is supposed;.

Thus, Ministry of economic development and trade, unlike the Central Bank, considers that to the Russian economy still is where to fall. And it not only has not reached a bottom, but even to it and has not come nearer. The consent with a position of the Central Bank at Ministry of economic development and trade only under the inflation forecast: both Alexey Uljukaev, and Andrey Klepach spoke about 13 % following the results of 2009.

judge theorists practice can only. And it as though testifies in favour of possibility of the further falling. For example, Rosstat has informed on February, 17th that manufacture falling in January has reached 16 % and became maximum since October, 1994 (then there were 18 %). The most appreciable recession has appeared in motor industry and mechanical engineering - on 80 %. The forgotten problem of nonpayment of salaries has returned To Russia: in January the debts under the salary have grown on 49 %, have informed Rosstat.

the Currency and share markets have reacted to pessimism of Rosstata and Ministry of economic development and trade is more appreciable, than on optimism of the Central Bank. For example, on February, 18th - in day of performance of Alexey Uljukaeva - the dollar exchange rate has updated a historical maximum: 36,427 rub/ $. And the stock market for two days has lost more than 14 %. And on February, 18th at the Russian stock exchanges it was necessary to stop the auctions from - for sharp (more than on 9 %) decrease in quotations twice. We will remind that last time the auctions stopped three months ago, and this practice already had time to forget partially a little.

boundary effects
Nevertheless a point in discussion about bottom achievement to put early. Many participants of the market say that Ministry of Economics exaggerates . This thought has been taken out on February, 18th in headings of some daily state-of-the-art reviews.

among experts there were also sceptics who have remembered that in January - half-month of holidays, and buildings and agriculture, for example, practically stand idle. And consequently manufacture falling in January - the phenomenon annual. Though and not such scale what was fixed by Rosstat in January 2009 - go.

Besides, the rouble exchange rate though has set up a historical record of falling to dollar, a Central Bank corridor all - taki did not leave: it has reached 40,72 rbl. on bivaljutnoj to a basket. The top border - 41 rbl. has resisted. And RTS index did not leave a corridor 500 - 700 points in which it was within last three months: during the auctions it fell to 510 points, but the bottom border nevertheless has not punched.

approximately as the oil prices behave also. For example, after on February, 11th the International power agency, and on February, 13th - and the OPEC have declared more scale, than they predicted, decrease in world demand for energy carriers, the prices for oil naturally have gone downwards. On February, 17th level of $36 for barrel on Brent has been punched, and level of $35 for barrel on February, 18th was rather actively tested. During the auctions it has been locally punched, however was soon restored. And on February, 19th the rebound to levels of $37 - 38 for barrel has followed. Thus, the price for oil - 40 for barrel too did not leave a corridor of $35.

It has appeared that borders of the developed corridors are strong enough. And this stability is observed for the first time during crisis. But durability of similar borders - one of the main signs of approach of a bottom of crisis. However, serious test still is necessary to these borders. It is possible to assume that especially actively them will test in March - April, that is upon termination of a fiscal year in the developed countries. Also it is not excluded that present corridors can appear not a bottom, and only intermediate stop on a market way to new antirecords.