Spring of hopesAutomobile factories of Petersburg, as well as their potential suppliers of the accessories, all strategic decisions on the further destiny of the projects postpone for the end of spring. They wait for results of sales of cars in Russia and the world for the first quarter of this year. Then it becomes approximately clear, that to wait from the market further, experts speak. While a tendency not the consolatory. Following the results of January, sales of foreign cars in Russia have fallen almost to 45 %.
When will be summed up sales of cars in Russia for March of this year and for the first quarter, motor-car manufacturers and their suppliers will start to make strategic decisions on the further development in Russia and, in particular, in Petersburg. The quarter indicator becomes base figure for more or less objective forecasts for the future, - analysts agree in opinion. Not casually - May foreign autoconcerns and manufacturers of autocomponents postpone decisions for April concerning the future of the projects in Petersburg.
So, the decision on factory building for April is postponed by Suzuki company (earlier in the company promised to make it till the end of 2008), only in May official start of factory of Nissan though its building is already finished is planned. Up until that time it will be difficult to company to be defined with the objective production program for the enterprise for current year, experts speak. And the quantity of Nissan of the personnel necessary for factory, in turn, depends on it, analyst IFK " marks; Metropol “ Michael Pak. For the end of spring postpones factory building in Petersburg and Canadian Magna - one of the world`s largest manufacturers of autocomponents (to start building the company planned in 2008).
At least till June in three-day change the Petersburg factory GM will work. In the summer the enterprise also should be defined with the production program, especially taking into account plans to begin in the summer release in Petersburg mass Chevrolet Cruze. Only Vsevolozhsk factory of Ford plans to begin manufacture Mondeo in the beginning of March. But it at all haste. To start release of this model the enterprise planned in September of last year.
the most careful position has occupied Toyota. In the beginning of this year the company intended to sign with MERTom the agreement on building of the second turn of the Petersburg factory. However recently, by data “ “ term of signing of the document has been as agreed transferred on the end of 2009.
analyst Ernst and Young Ivan Bonchev considers that whatever situation has developed in the market by the end of March, the Petersburg car factories all the same will load completely already constructed enterprises. “ Even taking into account predicted recession of their capacity are too small, but to hasten with expansion in case of a sharp collapse they, certainly, will not be “ - the analyst speaks.
it is remarkable that Toyota factory, according to Maxim Sokolova, the chairman of committee on investments and strategic projects, already left on designed capacity. Factory, the mister Sokolov speaks, lets out on 85 Camry in day. Thus, following the results of a year the enterprise can make 20 thousand cars (last year 6,2 thousand - “ “) That corresponds to its initial capacity. Thus following the results of January of Toyota Camry in a rating of sales of foreign cars in Russia has risen with 21 - go on 3 place, the Association of the European business (AEB) informs.
According to Michael Paka, autoconcerns wait for results of sales for the first quarter of year and in the global market as a whole then will start to solve, what investments into this or that situation become expedient. If recession is considerable, analysts in doubt first of all will appear " mark; projects on a paper “ which financing yet did not begin. As writes Auto - Dealer. ru referring to the American research agency R. L. Polk and Co sales of new cars in the world in 2009 can fall to 13 %. Under agency forecasts, the American and Japanese markets will suffer first of all.
“ It is necessary to notice that if the collapse of the global market is really considerable, the world autoindustry will be overflowed new, still by the big wave of reductions. In this case creation of new workplaces at the expense of manufacture development, for example, in Russia can cause revolt of Japanese, American and European trade unions “ - the representative of one of foreign car factories in Petersburg speaks. According to the interlocutor “ “ it also can become factors for slow development in Russia car assembly projects even if the situation in the Russian market will be stabler, than in the world.
analysts find it difficult to answer, recession that building and development of some car assembly projects completely have been stopped or postponed without day should be how much deep, and what situation will allow to develop further. The general forecasts have been made in the beginning of year. The most pessimistic at PricewaterhouseCoopers. Experts of the company consider that the Russian automobile market can be reduced in 2009 to 50 %. And these forecasts already, similar come true. As informs AEB, in January in comparison with January of last year of sale of cars in Russia have decreased on 33 %, and with December of last year - on 44,5 %.