Alexey Kudrin has taken out the budget on desecrationYesterday on board of Federal exchequer vitse - prime minister Alexey Kudrin declared term of entering of the new budget - 2009 in the government - 7 - on March, 8th - and has opened its base parametres. The white house is guided not only on real, but also by nominal reduction of gross national product, sharp falling of the industrial prices, moderate growth of a share “ bad “ credits in bank system, an expenditure in 2009 55 % of reserve fund and 25 % of fund of national well-being. The budget has turned out extremely rigid, and a reserve of increase in volumes of state support in it, making 1,5 trln rbl., growth of the oil and gas prices is only.
yesterday vitse - the prime minister, Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin, acting on exchequer board, declared rough dates of entering of the project of the new budget - 2009 in the government. As well as assumed “ “ On February, 23rd, till March to finish the auction with the ministries of reduction of expenses it will not be possible - in the White house the project should be transferred together with the macroeconomic forecast of Ministry of Economics 7 - on March, 8th. Mister Kudrin has opened base parametres of the budget and the forecast by which the Ministry of Finance is guided.
first of all the economic block is guided not only by decrease in real volume of gross national product, but also on reduction of a nominal total internal product - in 2008 it has made 42,54 trln rbl. (an estimation of Rosstata), in 2009 - m, mister Kudrin has declared, the look-ahead figure - 40,42 trln rbl., thus, nominal decrease will make 5 %. Thus in forecasts on - former moderate consumer inflation at level 13 - 14 % remains. Negative value of an index - defljatora gross national product, inevitable at such indicator, means that the White house puts in calculations the highest indicator of an industrial deflation - not less than 15 - 20 % following the results of 2009. Let`s remind, decrease in an index of the industrial prices in January, 2009 has made 2,7 %, since November, 2008 rates of an industrial deflation essentially decrease.
we will note, incomes of the federal budget Alexey Kudrin estimates all in 6,3 trln rbl. (earlier - 6,5 trln rbl.). At the oil price in $95 for barrel in the old project of the budget incomes were predicted at a rate of 10,9 trln rbl. - reduction of a profitable part of the budget makes, thus, 42 %. The new budget pays off proceeding from the mid-annual price of oil of $42 for barrel, oil and gas incomes made more than 50 % in a profitable part of the budget - 2008 (nearby 4,6 trln rbl.) At the mid-annual price of oil of $95 for barrel - in the new budget they, possibly, will be an order 3 trln rbl. taking into account rouble devaluation. Thus, the Ministry of Finance is guided by reduction of not oil and gas incomes of the budget in 2009 with 5 trln rbl. to roughly 3,3 trln rbl. - or on third. In January, 2009 reduction of tax incomes of the federal budget has made 28 % - thus, actually the Ministry of Finance does not put in the budget any “ ljufta “.
budget Expenses, Alexey Kudrin has informed, will make 9,5 trln rbl., from them 2,7 trln the rbl. will make a transfer of reserve fund (55 % of its volume for February, 2009). It corresponds to deficiency in 3,2 trln rbl. - 7,9 % of gross national product of 2009. Besides, Alexey Kudrin has explained, from fund of national well-being (FNB) will be spent 255 mlrd rbl. on rekapitalizatsiju banks and 500 mlrd rbl. - On financing of deficiency of off-budget funds (in the sum of 25,1 % FNB, the most part - on a transient basis).
Volume of the anti-recessionary measures financed in the new budget - 2009, mister Kudrin has estimated in 1,5 trln rbl. As they are not provided in the previous version of the budget - 2009, reduction of planned costs in the old version of the budget, making 9 trln rbl. Thus will be their source, the Ministry of Finance agrees on reduction of expenses - 2009 to the old version on 1 trln rbl.: considering that social expenses of the budget should make an order 5 trln rbl., it is a question of reduction of the unsocial expenses administered by the ministries, on 25 % (in the end of 2008 15 %, one week ago - 30 % were supposed, see “ “ from February, 24th).
the Basic direction of expenses “ an anti-recessionary package “ Alexey Kudrin recognised, will be rekapitalizatsija the State Banks (private banks rekapitalizirujutsja from FNB). The white house is guided by growth “ bad “ credits for balances of 30 largest banks of 10 % from their actives that will demand creation in them of reserves at a rate of 883 mlrd rbl., from them 532 mlrd the rbl. is required to the Savings Bank, VTB and Rosselhozbanku. Now a share “ bad “ credits for balances of the largest banks it is estimated in 2,5 - 4 %, analysts predict growth of this indicator in 2009 to level from 10 to 20 % - depending on a conjuncture.
it is obvious, the Ministry of Finance will undergo in the near future to the strengthened attacks of lobbyists. While the unique concession made Alexey Kudrin in the budget, insignificant decrease in requirements on reduction of expenses of state structures in comparison with January is. Yesterday, for example, vitse - the prime minister has explained that volume withdrawn from two state corporations - “ Rosnano “ and housing and communal services fund - not used means of the authorised capital will make 164 mlrd rbl. (Heads of funds still the day before told about attraction from them nearby 210 mlrd rbl.). For all the others - from bank sector, not excepting the State Banks, to large proprietors who on - former discuss the help of the state in re-structuring of an external debt, - the budget - 2009 is exclusively rigid and not leaving hopes of the essential help of the state. In this design only fast growth of the price for oil, devaluation continuation can change budget parametres (in the stated project of the budget - 2009 from vitse - the premiere is not present also hints on a deviation from the course policy declared by the Central Bank) or change of the point of view on Alexey Kudrin`s budget. Together with the sharp reduction of prices put in the project in the industry an event - the sufficient reason for the most serious attacks on vitse - a premiere in eight days which have remained till March, 7th.