Russian and World NewsAndrey Uspensky: me confuses that in Russia there is no accurate plan of an overcoming the crisis
General director Fleming Family and Partners Asset Management Andrey Uspensky believes that to the Russian stock market still is where to fall and investors will not return on it while the state will not have a realistic budget and the distinct plan of action on economic crisis overcoming. He has told about it in interview spetskorrespondentu “ Money “ to Peter Rushajlo .
As you would estimate a present condition of the financial markets and the Russian economy as a whole? A bottom have already reached?
- it is natural, all now interests, what it will be, a tomorrow`s bottom. Now it is a lot of events, and the question where we are, discussed by everything, and everyone does the forecast. And they so raznonapravleny that it is very difficult to construct rezultirujushchy a vector. Clear business, I will not differ originality if I will tell that in 2009 it will be very difficult. Especially, probably, it will be difficult in the first half of the year, till the summer, can be - till the autumn.
it is difficult where? In the market?
- it is difficult everywhere. And in the market including as the market is certain derivative of real economy. And the situation in real economy is absolutely not clear. Forecasts which now stand out, unfortunately, stand out too often, than cause mistrust to itself. Also it is the greatest problem - an uncertainty problem. Because uncertainty and fear can (not only in practice, but even according to existing economic theories) to add to gross national product falling considerable size - up to several tens or even hundreds basic points. And it is very important to overcome this uncertainty.
Therefore me confuses that in Russia while there is no accurate plan of an exit from a current situation - from here and uncertainty. In the USA, for example, there is Obama`s plan. It can be good or bad, but it is. There should be a certain reference point to which efforts of all nation or all economy become attached. At us while business does not reach even real figures. And if reaches, they arrive from different sources and are very inconsistent. A budgeted deficit if to judge under statements of officials, - from 5 to 10 %, figures 6, 7 or 8 % usually flash. Gross national product falling - from zero to 2,5 %, inflation - from 13 % and etc. Or take, for example, January recession of industrial production on 16 %. This figure in itself serious, but a problem also that rates of falling which we observed both in January, and in the last quarter of last year, were not simply high - they were unexpectedly high. And if there is so big divergence between expectation and that turns out actually, - here just and emotions come into force.
that to be surprised, what forecasts often change, if the reality every time does not correspond to them?
- it is necessary to do Forecasts seldom - simply because if you start often them to change, people cease to trust them. That again - taki conducts to increase in uncertainty and irritates investors. Therefore it seems to me that the Russian stock market yet has not passed the bottom point. We yet did not see the reporting on the majority of the companies for 2008, but it is already clear that the first quarter of this year for variety of branches will be very heavy. Not to mention the uncertainty caused by so-called soft devaluation. At first tried at all devalvirovat rouble, having spent for this certain time and means, then all - taki have realised that this inevitable harm or good - I do not know; It also has been made smoothly enough though could be made in shorter terms.
your colleagues usually say that the stock market works with an advancing concerning economy movement, being guided by certain forecasts. It would be logical to assume that the expected bad statistics for the first quarter is already considered in stock quotes. But you say that expect the further falling. Why? The described mechanism any more does not work or you consider, what the reporting will appear worse even the most gloomy forecasts?
- As usual, all stock market buys on hearings, sells on the facts. Simply now volatilnost it is greatest - if to take, for example, the American market, it has increased for last year six times; about Russian I already also do not speak... Therefore the share market as - that, we will tell so, has become puzzled, mechanisms of its internal regulation have not time to be arranged under promptly changing conditions. In a word, we now do not see that notorious “ market hands “. And it it is no wonder - we became witnesses of such crisis what, probably, anybody from recent yet did not see. At least, distinctly does not remember. What is the recession, many represent to themselves, about it textbooks are written. And what to do at such full-scale crisis, anybody while up to the end does not understand.
therefore all expect that the next portion of news will be bad, but nobody knows, is how much bad. Even those who considers that the validity will be worse than expectations, cannot estimate, how much it will be worse. Anybody up to the end does not understand how to be with the possible crisis of short-term liquidity connected, for example, with credit cards. And after all it more than $4,5 bln. As very few people understands that will be with the insurance companies - whether the new waves of crisis connected not only with long-term, but also with short-term actives will follow.
As long, on - to yours, falling of the share market and how much it will be deep will proceed?
- We now assume that the bottom will be reached where - that at level of 300 points on RTS index. Not there is no place because more low basically to fall - simply already and now factor P/ E (the relation of capitalisation to profit. - “ money “ ) at many Russian companies is at level of unit and more low. And in this plan the Russian market already is in the end “ standings “ emerging markets. And it is clear that the share market can wake up only when the bond market will quicken and on it normal profitableness when in the market trust level will raise will be established, will earn crediting mechanisms. Unfortunately, all these processes occupy a lot of time, in any way there is less than half a year. Nevertheless we hope that by the autumn there will be a certain balance and then it will be possible to speak about a lateral trend, or the share market can even go gradually upwards.
you say that at many domestic companies now P/ E around unit. Why their actions then do not buy? Same all the same that purchase of cash: on rouble of investments I receive, roughly speaking, rouble of cash property right plus.
- Yes, logic correct and if at you the horizon of investments - two - three years, makes sense to reflect on such purchases already now. But while the market moves fear. All understand that theoretically on rouble it is possible to receive rouble of cash plus the property. But, on the other hand, this conclusion is based on the last statistics. And that will be in the future, nobody knows - can be, the profit will sharply fall also real P/ E it will appear much above. In this case it is possible to draw an analogy between the companies and icebergs: The large quantity of obligations is under a water surface.
it, by the way, only a part of the problem which have become by one of the reasons of present crisis. After all till now the majority of the western companies have been aimed at capitalisation growth, managers received bonuses for it and etc. It there was such big bubble, an enormous pyramid. All were adjusted on continuous growth, involved for this purpose cheap monetary resources, expanded states. Thus reasons of an estimation of risks faded into the background, partly from - for absence of experience, is partly simple from - for greed. Anybody and did not want to think that all system can during any moment shlopnutsja. Certainly, except greed was also the factor of competitive struggle. If your competitors grow mad rates, and you use models of minimisation of risks at a given time you start to understand that you lose a market share, lose clients - especially it actually for investment business. And systems of internal control, a control system of risks become a great burden, a certain barrier which needs to be overcome in any image.
now when all this bubble has burst, the investment companies, of course, much more attention will turn on control systems of risks. But at the market short memory - probably, on the average for couple of years suffices, and, I think, the new coil of expansion, struggle for the client then will begin. While all are extremely careful. Besides, it is obvious that now the state presence at economy, state regulation starts to play a huge role. It too the uncertainty factor: it is not very clear yet how private business will adjoin to state regulation - to remember enough, for example, restrictions actively discussed in recent times on operations a hedge - funds and national funds.
As you, operating actives in the Russian market, would characterise behaviour of the clients in present conditions?
- During such unstable time clients, certainly, basically prefer conservative strategy. People enter into tools of the monetary market, look at funds of bonds, into metal accounts. Thus one of our recommendations - in bonded portfolios should be less than currency risks, presence there eurobonds of reliable Russian emitters is necessary.
Besides, I will notice that now has strongly changed not only horizon of investment, but also, we will tell so, frequency of correction of accepted decisions. If earlier the investor defined for itself investment horizon in two - three years, and then time in three months addressed to us to look that occurs to its portfolio now it checks a condition of the investments every week, and sometimes even more often.
If to return to actions of the state, what strategic plan of the Russian authorities you how the participant of the market, would like to see?
- It would be desirable to see first of all the realistic budget. That financial plans of the authorities were not corrected step by step after market movements, and the certain guaranteed bottom level of support - let even with use of the most conservative and most pessimistic scenarios has been set. We will admit, now forecasts of the price for oil for this year - $35 - 45 for barrel. It is necessary to take the bottom border and, proceeding from the given figure, to make the budget. It is better to hope for the worst and then it is pleasant to be surprised, than continuously to be nervous, guessing, whether can carry out of the state undertaken.
Besides, such plan should contain as more as possible exact (let again - taki and pessimistic) forecasts on unemployment, on industrial production, on inflation, on devaluation and etc. Simply that anybody did not have illusions and loss of feeling of a reality.
all - taki you speak not about the plan of action of the government directed on overcoming of crisis, and is faster, about reduction of an official position of the authorities in conformity with a reality.
- Certainly, should be and the second part of the plan in which it is necessary to concentrate on projects of support of economy, as, for example, in already mentioned American anti-recessionary strategy. If to speak about concrete filling of the similar program with reference to Russia, usually from such scale crises of exits not too much. It is clear that first of all speech should go about the state stimulation of separate sectors of economy - in China, for example, state means go on support of internal consumption. At us, unfortunately, while available raw economy with low level of industrial base and very low labour productivity. It is very important to us to develop infrastructural projects, to develop internal consumption. In the modern world of possible methods of stimulation of development of economy and an overcoming the crisis by and large sees two: roughly speaking, either war, or infrastructure development. Certainly, the first variant was to be avoided. Even it would not be desirable small victorious war, it is a deadlock variant from any point of view. There is an infrastructure development.
the Russian government is good, let us assume, will present such plan, will set a certain bottom risk level. What then will change in respect of products which offer investors management companies? For example, whether the market of complex products with the guaranteed profitableness will quicken?
- I do not think. Products with the guaranteed profitableness all - taki difficult enough tools. Moreover, examples Lehman Brothers learn to care. Now the most important thing - to reduce risks, and it means - not to offer difficult products which are anyhow connected with marzhinalnymi the operations, derivative tools and etc. When appetites concerning risk at investors are minimum, the easier - the better. And simple things are tools of the monetary market, the bond, metal accounts, eurobonds. Plus access possibility to the western markets. Plus set restriction even existing tools. If earlier I as the managing director, offered the client a portfolio from 20 - 25 papers now I am limited 8 - 12, selected by reliability principle. Usually, if the investment horizon makes an order of two years, we offer 70 % of means to enclose in nizkoriskovannye bonds and tools of the monetary market, and 30 % - in all other tools, thereby allowing to receive an optimum combination of risk and profitableness.
you for yourselves plan any reference point, allowing to speak about expediency of increase in more risky investments (I mean first of all the share market)?
- usually this sort of turning-points happen are connected with restoration of the interbank market, that is with the restoration of trust connected with essential falling of rates and increase of liquidity in the market of interbank credits.
and how they can go downwards in the conditions of uncertain inflation?
- you have asked about reference points. Certainly, the situation in the interbank market is stabilised only after the situation with the basic macroeconomic indicators, inflation, the budget will clear up and etc.
Coming back to strategy, would like to note one more moment. That for years of the high oil prices and growth of stock market of Russia it was possible to save up considerable reserves, - the fact, certainly, positive. However it seems to me that any country (especially with such potential as at Russia) should not develop as the raw company, with main principle of development like “ seven years we live well, then three years - it is bad, and all of us live then to endure first seven years these ill-starred three years “. Therefore already now, despite level of panic moods, it is necessary to define accurately, in what direction we will develop the Russian economy and stock market after we will meet present crisis.