Rus News Journal

The feeling of metre

In the conditions of the falling market of habitation any exposed price is perceived by the potential buyer as a reference point for the auction. And here how much deep auction is possible actually in each specific case - a question much more difficult, and the most important both for one, and for other party. The exact answer to it can be received only in one way: to conclude the bargain. For a preliminary estimation there are different techniques.
all has mixed up in houses
Bulletin boards of the realtor companies is actually something like pornosites. They do not reflect any reality, so far as concerns the prices, and reflect only erotic dreams of realtors and sellers of apartments - such thought was stated by one of observers of the market.

complexity of an estimation of these dreams consists that no information on the real sums of transactions exists basically. And if even somebody from realtors has decided to publish such information who to it would believe? And in the beginning of year when the market fell confidently and in all respects, it was possible to take away simply 25 - 30 % from the declared price that more or less to come nearer to a reality. Now some companies have really lowered prices almost to selling level, others for the various reasons continue to dream. for the last half a year, as a rule, the prices on overestimated objects were levelled to compromise value and can be on the average on 10 % below pre-crisis level. However there are discount examples on some objects within 20 - 30 % - tells Uljana Smolsky, the head public relations - company MIAN services.

Straight off to separate one from others not so - that is simple.

Accounting of parametres
There are mathematical models which, according to founders, should help at definition of the real price of habitation at present. On site Irn. ru, for example, it is possible to play with the so-called room calculator. For this purpose it is necessary to enter into the form a specification (area, distance from the underground, type of the house and etc.) And to receive a certain average figure of cost. we use for an estimation three key parametres - area, type of the house and quantity of rooms - and we adjust the price proceeding from other parametres, - general director Irn explains. ru Oleg Repchenko. - the prices of the offer anyway are accepted To a basis with the lowering factor which is established proceeding from understanding of a situation in the market and long-term supervision and statistics .

it is clear that in itself the lowering factor on the basis of supervision and statistics - the weakest place in formula Irn. ru. In - the first, steady falling of the prices during long time happens only once - after a default 1998 - go. And then there was essentially other situation in the real estate market - at least because building volumes differed from today`s several times. In - the second, statistics sources about the real prices of sales hardly can be faultless.

Nevertheless it is necessary to recognise that, having entered the data of the several apartments, which real sale price to me it was known, I have received the results different only on 5 - 10 %. It though and more than a statistical error, but is exact enough.

and here when I used the return calculator - theoretically accessible objects for determined price, there was an incident. Irn. ru among the other has given out three-room apartment about 55 sq. m in area Mitino in the old brick house (pjatietazhke) . For data: in this area in general is not present pjatietazhek - either brick, or panel. Oleg Repchenko has explained it to that the formula considers a certain set of parametres irrespective of, whether they can be combined actually. It is clear that such calculator can be only one of podspory at definition of the present price in each specific case.

Predictive force
it is possible, we even will find golden mean between expectations of the buyer and possibilities of the seller, but it will be the price of the present moment. The main problem of the potential buyer is reduced to a question: to carry out purchase now or to wait counting on the further reduction of prices? However, just the same problem and at the seller of real estate.

innovative group WinNER has developed an index which should reflect dynamics of the prices in the long term. It is defined as the relation of an indicator of the price to offer volume. The more volume, the - in the long term - there should be prices more low. Thus, the more low value of an index, the better to buyers of real estate, and on the contrary.

As the index considers overstocking or deficiency of the market which are reflected in dynamics of the price with appreciable delay, the index possesses predictive force, that is at least is capable to specify the further trend of the price. As the maximum an index is capable to show potential of change of the price in the long term the next several months, - the head of analytical department of Innovative group WinNER Yury Bikuzin explains. - For example if to compare dynamics of an index and dynamics of the price from the moment of the crisis beginning in the real estate market (the end of August, 2008) it is possible to see that the index has decreased on 57 %, and a price indicator - only on 27 %. Thus, the price indicator has still a potential to decrease on 30 % concerning the pre-crisis prices or that the same, on 40 % concerning present level .

Obvious lack WinNER - an index consists that it considers only two indicators (volume and the price), besides that there are also other, not less essential factors. For example, decrease or increase in mortgage rates. Other example: from the point of view of an index, houses which are at early stages of building, is same volume As well as ready houses, and the secondary market. Meanwhile in this sector practically there are no sales, namely it and gives the greatest percent of discounts, including declared openly.

thus, WinNER - an index - one of factors which will help to make the decision to buy or wait, but hardly will provide guidance on volume, when and how much the prices will change.


As well as in any another matter, the theory it is necessary to calibrate exhibiting term practice. So far as concerns concrete apartment in the secondary market, the history of its sale can tell about much. If it was exposed during long time and the price thus remained invariable, most likely, the seller not absolutely adequately estimates the real estate or is not going to sell at all, and simply probes the market. So many private investors who are not interested in urgent sale, for example, arrive. And here apartments just exposed, as a rule, have potential for reduction of price.

other variant is possible also: the apartment is exposed for a long time, the offer price falls and has already come nearer to the real. Such situation the head of branch " here is how describes; the October Field the companies Inkom - Real estate Michael Razdolsky: Approximately in third of cases of the price which are specified for the first time on bulletin boards, have not something in common neither with a market situation, nor with cost of similar objects. This primary price - the wish of the owner of apartment is simple. Also it is frequent even the professional realtor cannot overpersuade at once the client that is the inadequate price for such object. For example, not so long ago one client has wished to sell apartment in cost of 11 million roubles through our agency. To convince him that such apartment does not correspond to such cost, it was impossible. As a result this figure - 11 million - has been specified in the advertising messages, however wishing to buy apartment for such money was not. After a while the client has reduced the price - in advertising messages there was figure 10 of million roubles, however apartment and has not been sold. Now this apartment is on sale already for 9 million roubles, but the new owner was not yet. In most cases in the course of apartment exhibiting originally declared price decreases on 20 - 30 % .

All selling peripetias of concrete apartment can be found out, having studied archives of sites. In general to make now the successful transaction on purchase of city habitation, it is necessary not only to compare various factors of a market situation, but also to conduct own research. As it is a question of the large sums, business of that costs.