Blockage in stock marketReturning of the prices to oil Brent and Urals above level of $70 has urged on interest to the Russian stock market. The Russian share indexes have become stronger above pre-crisis levels and, having updated 13 - monthly maxima, have added for a day 3,8 - 4,1 %. Despite fears of correction, participants of the market while are adjusted on growth continuation. They count that the reporting of the American banks which will be published this week will help with it.
increase of oil quotations became yesterday a growth principal cause on the Russian share platforms. Cost of oil of grade Urals has grown yesterday on 2,6 %, to a mark of $70,8 for barrel. Quotations of North Sea oil Brent have risen on 2,5 %, to level of $71,57 for barrel. So highly price for the European oil did not rise from the end of August. Above $70 for barrel the price for oil did not rise from the middle of September. “ Exit of the prices for oil of mark Brent it is far for a mark of $70 for barrel has served for traders as a signal to escalating of positions on the Russian papers “ - the operating director for work with corporate clients of the company " explains; Olma “ Sergey Shejkov. RTS index has added yesterday 4,08 % and has risen to a mark 1428,06 points. The Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has grown on 3,77 %, to 1357,44 points.
traders bought up the Russian papers for lack of considerable news from - for a boundary. The volume of the auctions on FB the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange has made 97,3 mlrd rbl. - the maximum value since June, 23rd of this year. At a stock exchange of RTS the volume of operations with actions has made almost $540 million - the second result for all history of the auctions at a stock exchange. At the London stock exchange the volume of transactions with depozitarnymi receipts of the Russian emitters has made $1,3 billion
growth Continuation on foreign platforms yesterday also has added optimism to investors in the Russian market. The European indexes have grown yesterday on 1,3 - 1,4 %. The American share indicators on 20. 00 Moscow time have added 0,4 - 0,6 %.
Last time so highly Russian indexes were in the beginning of September, 2008, on the eve of a collapse on September, 15th with which the sharp phase of crisis has begun. In spite of the fact that then the prices for oil were around $100 for barrel, now interest to the Russian market is considerable above. One year ago annual rate LIBOR on dollars made about 3 %. Now it is below 0,25 %. At the same time profitableness of long Russian eurobonds made one year ago about 5,5 %. Now it has returned to these values though literally one month ago exceeded 6,7 %. A remaining essential difference in profitableness of involved means and profitableness of actives, in which these means take place, involves in the Russian market of non-residents. As the dollar exchange rate confidently decreases. Yesterday the dollar exchange rate in the Russian market has lost 8 copeck more and has reached a point 29,52 rbl./ $ (the next minimum from the end of last year). “ Some western funds waited for the moment, when the market will fall to enter into it, but correction was not, therefore they have started to buy papers “ - the head of department of operations with actions " marks; Uralsiba “ Oleg Vorotnitsky. “ Clients are afraid to buy, but the fear of depreciation of dollar actives is stronger, therefore investors are ready to buy more and more “ - the trader of large western bank has declared.
according to the trader “ the Capital Renaissance “ Alexey Bachurin, during pre-crisis time correlation between debt and share the markets was weak, at level of 24 %, between commodity (the prices for oil) and share the markets it is even less - 21 %. For the last some months correlation between debt, commodity and share the markets has grown to 80 %, that is all changes in the markets occur almost synchronously. “ It means that the reason of growth at all markets one - huge monetary weight “ - the expert explains.
however, according to participants of the auctions, growth only at the expense of high dollar liquidity is fraught with consequences as it is not confirmed fundamentally. “ it is necessary to block access on the market of cheap liquidity as it will rush in the opposite direction, - general director UK " marks; the Companion “ Vladimir Malhanov. - the History dazzles such with examples: so was both spring of 2004, and spring of 2006 “.
As the situation with liquidity will remain in the near future at the former level, all attention of investors will be chained to an exit of the reporting of the American companies for the third quarter 2009, in particular to the reporting of big banks. On Wednesday the exit of reporting JP Morgan Chase, on Thursday - Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, on Friday - Bank of America is expected. “ There is a basis to believe that the reporting can appear even better market expectations “ - a deputy head of analytical department IFK " specifies; Metropol “ Mark Rubenshtejn.