Payment on a trifleFrom the middle of February the Russian companies have started drawing up of registers of the shareholders applying for reception of dividends following the results of 2009. Closing of registers will last till the end of May. Usually this procedure — an occasion to active gamble in the market: high dividends push upwards stock quotes of the companies. But this year the situation can become non-standard: in connection with crisis dividends can appear scanty.
correction of privileges
Reception of dividends from the enterprise - the legitimate right of the shareholder. For the companies of an expert of such payments - a way to keep shareholders and a sign of the friendly relation to them. As a rule, conditions of distribution of dividends register in charters of the companies obliging boards of directors to allocate for it money even in hard times. And despite crisis, the companies continue to share profit with minority shareholders.
It is indicative that heavy for investors in stock market 2008 was rather generous to holders dividendnyh actions. In 2008 dividendnaja profitableness of some preference shares exceeded 10 %. Under ordinary actions, on which companies also direct payments, but it is more any and it is unpredictable, profitableness quite often reached 4 - 6 %.
last year at the moment of closing of registers the highest profitableness have shown “ prefy “ the multinational corporation - VR (28,5 %), “ Dalsvjazi “ (22 %), of some regional MRK (“ severo - Western a TV set “ “ Uralsvyazinform “ “ Volgatelekom “ - an order 15 - 16 %), “ Surgutneftegaz “ (13 %), MTS (12,5 %). The given companies directed on dividendnye payments to 100 % of net profit as it was in a case with the oil company of the multinational corporation - BP.
Then the companies presumed to themselves such generosity. Crisis has not had time to affect their financial indicators yet, and here the stock value has had time to fall almost twice, as has allowed shareholders to receive high profitableness under dividends.
to reconsider dividendnuju a policy of the company became in 2009. According to analyst IB “ the WHALE of Finans “ Artema Lavrishcheva, last year the companies traditionally directing 20 - 50 % of profit on payments to shareholders (including on ordinary actions), have directed on dividends only 10 - 15 %. The metallurgical companies have absolutely refused from dividendnyh payments: after the failure fourth quarter 2008 they have ignored total payments for a year. However, before some of them paid including intermediate dividends: semi-annual - NLMK, Evraz Group, TMK, MMK, quarterly - “ Severstal “. It is expected that to the similar policy of the company will adhere and this year.
“ As a whole it is possible to tell that 2009 has brought some stabilisation, at the companies the situation with debt loading has improved. It is possible to expect that those companies which will finish 2009 with profit, on dividends will not refuse. Another matter that from - for net profit reductions dividendnaja in absolute value will decrease “ - analyst FK " speaks; Olma “ Anton Startsev. For this reason it is not necessary to count and on dividendnye payments of some big banks. “ the Savings Bank, VTB, “ the Renaissance “ and Bank of Moscow following the results of a year will show losses or too small profit so hardly will please investors with dividends “ - the head of analytical department UK " considers; Kapital “ Sergey Karyhalin.
experts of dividends and from the majority of the metallurgical companies do not expect. “ as a whole 2009 - j was difficult for the Russian companies, therefore, probably, dividends will be slightly more low, than in 2008 - m. The raw companies have been in a greater degree burdened by debts, probably, the most part of their profit will go on repayment of debts, except for those enterprises at which the size of dividends under preference shares is registered in the charter “ - general director UK " considers; Russ - Invest “ Alexey Butorin operating fund of preference shares.
has lowered appeal of dividends and the triple growth of the stock market which has begun in 2009. All this time the stock value grew even at the unprofitable companies. As a result low dividendnye the payments charged on expensive actions, have shown more modest profitableness, than one year ago. So, the dividends bringing one year ago over 10 % of profitableness, have decreased to 6 %. It is expected that on current payments of the most liquid papers profitableness will make 0,1 - 5 %. By calculations of analysts, twice will fall predicted dividendnaja profitableness of actions of the Savings Bank (to 0,59 %), local actions of MTS - to 5,3 %, “ Gazprom “ - to 0,17 %, “ oil Gazprom “ - to 2,78 %, “ Surgutneftegaz “ - to 3,5 %
It would be desirable, but it is pricked
the Tendency to decrease dividendnyh profitablenesses have caught the share funds focused on reception of dividends. One after another they have started to disappear with the market even last spring. The part from them has adapted to strategy of index funds. From six thematic funds (“ Ermak - fund of preference shares “ “ Optim exclusive “ “ AVK - fund of preference shares “ “ Russ - Invest - preference shares “ “ Ingosstrah dividendnyj “ “ dividendnye actions and corporate bonds “ under control of UK “ Region Esset Menedzhment “) Has survived only “ Russ - Invest - preference shares “. In the company assert that dividendnaja strategy has brought from the beginning of this year a share increase in value at level of 8,5 %. According to National league of managing directors (NLU), similar results have shown no more than 15 funds of actions.
according to Alexey Butorina, it has counted on actions with historically high dividendnoj profitableness and bought mainly preference shares of the liquid companies. Dividends on them are paid more regularly, and discount to “ obychke “ allows to count on the best profitableness. It has completed the portfolio on 90 % “ prefami “ the oil companies and telekomov to which number have got “ Tatneft “ “ Surgutneftegaz “ “ Rostelecom “ the Savings Bank, “ severo - Western a TV set “ and “ Uralsvyazinform “. However, it does not deny that in results of fund there is also an effect from growth of a course stock value. Reform “ Svyazinvest “ pushed upwards stock value MRK. Similar movements have caused hearings about converting of preference shares of the Savings Bank in the ordinary. These ideas have not sputtered out and now. Regional MRK will start to close registers from the end of April. Till this time it is possible to count as on growth of course cost on their papers, and on dividendnuju profitableness from 2 to 6 %. In a case with the Savings Bank it is necessary to count basically on course cost.
the conservative approach - orientation to the companies with stable dividendnoj history - can justify itself in some cases and this year. The most conservative investors should pay attention to actions “ Tatneft “ (date of closing of the register on May, 7th, expected profitableness under preference shares - 10 %, on ordinary - at level of 5 %). Investors with appetite to risk should look narrowly at actions of MDM of bank (date of closing of the register - the end of the March, predicted dividendnaja profitableness - 11 %), “ Bashnefti “ (date of closing of the register - the end of the May, predicted dividendnaja profitableness - 8 %), MTS (date of closing of the register - the beginning of the May, predicted dividendnaja profitableness - 6 - 7 %).
are even less disciplined, but vysokodohodny the marketing companies. By estimates of Anton Startseva, “ Kamchatskenergo “ “ Stavropolenergosbyt “ “ Omskenergosbyt “ Kostroma marketing company can bring to shareholders to 70 % of profitableness. However earlier these companies ignored the right of minority shareholders fixed by the charter to 10 % of profit. So the risk to remain on hands with malolikvidnymi papers is high enough and now.
At any approach it is necessary to consider that after payment of dividends the stock value sharply decreases. In a pursuit of dividends the main thing - in time to get rid of actions that not always it is possible to make quickly. Considering unsuccessful experience of specialised share funds, hardly probable it is possible to advise for the private investor to be got involved this year in stockjobbings counting on good dividendnuju profitableness of actions.