Overtaking in fallingAccording to an informal rating socially - economic development of subjects PFO, has least suffered from crisis realities of 2009 Tatarstan. Traditionally being in number of leaders the Samara region has given in, despite volumes of the state help. According to experts, today`s socially - the economic situation of regions PFO is in many respects connected with orientirovannostju on raw economy, oboronozakaz and state support. As analysts consider, regions should to cease hope for the state money, and it is time to search for internal points of growth.
in the end of February the governor of the Ulyanovsk region Sergey Morozov, reporting about work of the regional government, has begun the performance with the statement that in a rating socially - economic development of subjects of Privolzhsky federal district following the results of 2009 the Ulyanovsk region has taken the sixth place. “ it is the best indicator reached by region over the last ten years “ - the governor has told. In its opinion, this result not casual, it became a consequence of a strategic choice in economic policy of the Ulyanovsk region. At the same time, according to Sergey Morozova, “ crisis has shown that, keeping old structure of economy, we are doomed to vegetate on a development not only world roadside, but also Russia. It is a way in anywhere. In deadlock! “
According to strategy of the regional government, the area should pass three stages: 2005 - 2006 - overcoming of crisis of the power, achievement of political and economic stability; 2007 - 2010 - concentration of financial, economic, personnel and lobbist resources for the decision of priority problems of development of economy and social sphere; and, since 2011 - “ jerk “ in economic development - struggle against poverty, putting in order against quality housing - utilities, formation and public health services lifting.
officials recognise - “ Completely to solve a problem of the second stage “ it was not possible, crisis has prevented. Nevertheless the governor considers that relative stability to region was provided with the economic potential saved up till 2009 that has allowed “ in crisis year to leave even on positive indicators in sphere of agrarian and industrial complex and housing construction “. In the regional Ministry of Economics this result consider “ quite logical and justified though Penza causes jealousy “. “ Recently the region annually rose on two places upwards: 14, 12, 10, 8, and here now - the sixth “ - the Minister of Economics of the regional government Oleg Asmus has noted.
Despite a celebration of the Ulyanovsk authorities, indicators socially - economic development of the Ulyanovsk region have appeared much worse previous year. “ Have fallen from - for crisis everything, - Oleg Asmus speaks, - but the Ulyanovsk region has rolled down less than a number of regions, or, it is possible to tell, has overtaken a number of the neighbours “.
So, the industrial production index in the Ulyanovsk region has made 84,4 %, while at Samara - 72 in spite of the fact that the mining operations making 20 % of industrial output, left on level of 108 %. The reason - in a component of an index of industrial production - an index of processing manufactures which has fallen to 63,1 % while in the Ulyanovsk region it remained at level in 80,3 %.
the Majority of indicators of economic activities of the Ulyanovsk region in 2009, as one would expect, have shown falling. Manufacture of vehicles has decreased to 56 % (across Russia the same falling is expected), textile and sewing manufacture - 98,6 %, wood manufacture - 83,8 %. Metallurgical manufacture has fallen to level of 52,9 % (across the Russian Federation - 86,1 %), manufacture of rubber and plastic products - to 57 % (the Russian Federation - 87,8 %), manufacture of cars and the equipment (relative density - 5,5 %) has decreased to 31,2 %. However on these indicators in the regional government do not accent attention. But notice that in manufacture of an electric equipment, the electronic and optical equipment the region left on an index in 139,7 % (on the average across Russia this indicator is expected at level of 68 %). From “ high achievements “ the regional government also marks growth of volumes of building and habitation delivery - 104,4 % (in the Samara region - 77,1 %). Growth in regional Ministry of Economics explain working out of numerous measures of support of building branch, adoption of law about tax exemption of builders, introduction of individual support of projects. “ we tried to rescue as much as possible branch which all predicted the greatest falling, - mister Asmus has explained. - As a result left on a record, having handed over 530,7 thousand square metres! “
however leadership in habitation delivery seems conditional enough. The general director of Joint-Stock Company “ the real estate Center “ Alexander Dikov considers that good indicators on habitation delivery are caused by the big period of its building (from a year till three years), and also that the reporting included habitation which have started to build during pre-crisis building boom, but have handed over in 2009. According to mister Dikova, the failure in building of habitation of crisis year will seriously affect decrease in indicators of input of habitation both in 2010, and in 2011 and even in 2012. “ we see that recession has already begun “ - the general director has told. He also has noticed that in an indicator of input of habitation the big share private low building (according to Uljanovskstata occupies, the individual apartment houses entered in 2009 - 358,6 sq. m from 530,7 thousand in sq. m of a total sum of the handed over habitation. - „“), “ To which the authorities have no relation “ “ and the new low habitation practically is not put, many platforms are frozen, and it is not so much from - for crisis, how many from - for problems with the allowing documentation “.
Level of investments into fixed capital in 95 % in the Ministry of Economics estimate as “ magnificent “. The next Samara region has reached only level in 71,2 %. On rates of increase of investments the Ulyanovsk region this year left on 1 place among regions PFO. Meanwhile in absolute indicators under investments (48,7 mlrd rbl.) the region became only to the eighth. “ such developed regions, as Samara (110 mlrd rbl.) and Nizhniy Novgorod (196 mlrd rbl.) areas, or republic Tatarstan (268 mlrd rbl.) To catch up uneasy “ - the director of department of investments of the regional government Alexander Smekalin ascertains. However, he also notices that for crisis year when all investors have as though stood, the quite good result is caused by active investment activity of last years, “ as a time log from the beginning of negotiations to real investments very big “. This year, according to the logic of events, the falling of investments caused by crisis of 2009 can follow. “ but we will try to remain at least at level of the past year “ - mister Smekalin has assured.
Besides, the big share in volume of investments into the Ulyanovsk region (60 %) state investments (and first of all - means for building of the new bridge through Volga) traditionally had. In 2009, in connection with the building termination, the share of state investments has decreased and has made already 40 %. But, as Alexander Smekalin marks, in 2009 the Ulyanovsk region has won in spent minregionrazvitija competition of projects on sofinansirovanie from investment fund of the Russian Federation, and winners recognise at once two projects - federal funds on industrial zone development " are had; Zavolzhe “ (279,56 million rbl.) and 668 million rbl. on project realisation “ the Simbirsk ring “ (sport park building “ Simbirsk “ and erections of inhabited microdistrict “ the West - 1 “). And in 2010 federal funds will go to region on creation of an infrastructure of Port special economic zone (poez) on the basis of the airport “ Ulyanovsk - East “ (762 million rbl. on 2010 - 2012). In connection with the beginning of action poez this year will start to arrive and private investments of residents of a zone (the general look-ahead sum of private investments - nearby 7 mlrd rbl.) . An essential share of the state investments can add and factory building “ the Aerocomposite “ on promploshchadke “ Aviastar - the joint venture “ ($250 million till 2015) .
Analysts notice that the Samara region too told already long time about idea of the project of creation of a special economic zone of industrial type which can be created in Tolyatti. “ idea of creation OEZ in the Samara region good, but they with it strongly were late, trying to leave a worsening situation other methods “ - leading expert UK " speaks; finam - Management “ Dmitry Baranov. However he is afraid that the project can not justify expectations - “ it is not excluded what to work in future OEZ there will be nobody, as the problem of shots is aggravated every year “ and “ to develop on its base small and average business it will be uneasy - in Russia wishing to risk and open own business too little “. “ Besides, whether investors - still a question will go there: them, having used a situation, will start to entice other regions “ - the expert has noted.
Meanwhile analysts and experts results of year across the Ulyanovsk region name not so good as it seems by rating estimations. In - the first, the rating shows only dynamics of changes - in percentage concerning indicators of last year. In absolute figures a picture it becomes perfect other, an example to they be the data under investments.
“ in this region the same tendencies, as in Russia as a whole “ - group economist UK " speaks; finam - Management “ Alexander Osin. Its colleague Dmitry Baranov in general names an informal rating of regions “ slyness of statistics “. He considers that “ it is senseless to put a cow with oranges “. “ With such calculations we and the Olympic Games in Vancouver too have won, - the expert has noted. - I would not advise to other areas to hoist the colours that they are leaders. They do not have such share of car industry as at Samara, but the share of agriculture which and in crisis gives a gain as the food is the last what the person " will refuse is great;.
Experts believe that the Ulyanovsk region owing to structure of its economy (the big share of agriculture and VPK) very much has not carried in 90 - e years, and in crisis 2009, on the contrary, it has appeared in more advantageous position in comparison with some neighbours.
“ the role and the big share of agriculture, and, probably, first of all, that in manufacture the big share VPK, - speaks mister Osin Here plays. - Samara and Bottom have most of all suffered from - for the big shares of mechanical engineering and manufacturing industry. First of all, car industry falling " has affected;. At the same time, according to an analyst, economic growth in the Ulyanovsk region is swept up there where there is a state support and the state (defensive) orders. “ Growth non-uniform and not so beautiful, from the point of view of long-term dynamics “ - the expert has noted.
the senior lecturer of chair of economy and the organisation of manufacture of the Ulyanovsk state university Ekaterina Pustynnikova noticing that " adheres to similar opinion also; region indicators sredne - stable across Russia “. At the same time in a number of directions it connects successes with state orders and state support (“ Aviastar - the joint venture “ “ NPO Mars “) The state investments. She considers that in the conditions of crisis and at existing structure of regional economy orientation of a regional management to the state investments and orders - “ this logical direction “.
the Similar reasons in Ministry of Economics of the government of the Ulyanovsk region explain also that in an informal rating the Penza region has appeared on the fifth place. There there is no such level of processing manufactures, there are no enterprises of car industry which so have dropped other regions. “ at the same time the Penza region there was a big state support - the federal financial help - about 6 billion roubles while at the Ulyanovsk region having close parametres on territory and number, the federal help was twice less “ - Minister of Economics Oleg Asmus has noted.
Mister Asmus has confirmed that the trend on the maximum use of state support and state investments in Ulyanovsk will remain. “ Now the most important problem - to join in the concept of development PFO that gives the chance to get to region to federal programs “ - he has noted. In Open Society “ Corporation of development of the Ulyanovsk region “ (is engaged in attraction of investments into region) also have noticed that “ along with attraction of private investments will undertake all efforts to participate in all competitions of regional projects on sofinansirovanie from investment fund of the Russian Federation “. Mister Osin confirms that “ at region a low budgeted deficit, and an area debt - one of the most minimum across Russia, and it means that the region administration can obtain credits under guarantees of the state or increase expenses in need of support any of perspective branches “.
However, Dmitry Baranov (“ finam “) Considers that regions should not hope for state support, and continue to search for internal reserves. “ their today`s strategy is clear - when few private investments, there is a hope of the state money. Regions have got used to run if something happens in the federal centre to the father - to the tsar, but in due course it is necessary to change, otherwise, hoping for the state, it is possible to be trapped “ - mister Baranov has told.
(9 place), the Saratov and Nizhniy Novgorod areas (have divided 7 place). But has passed forward republics Tatarstans (1) and Bashkortostan (2), Orenburg (3) and the Penza (4) areas, and also the Perm edge (5). The rating of economic development of regions is not official and is counted up not in federal structures, and in administrations of subjects of federation. A principle of formation of a rating: Comparative tables are made of 30 indicators socially - economic development of regions. On each indicator ranging with 1 on 14 place is made. 1 place - the best indicators, 14 - the worst. Then places on all to 30 indicators the general rating is summarised and deduced. The minimum quantity of points corresponds to the first place, maximum - to the last. Indexes, as it is known, are comparative parametre, showing a percentage parity of indicators of this year to the previous. That is show only size and a direction of a vector of development, without reflecting real economic potential.