The next weeks oil will fluctuate in a corridor 113 - 118 dollars for barrel
this week are planned a new round of consultations about possible deliveries of the Libyan oil in exchange for the humanitarian goods. While such export is resolved from uncontrollable by the authorities of areas of Libya. But if the African union and other intermediaries manages to adjust dialogue of Tripoli about the NATO and the Intralibyan negotiations the prices for oil, and they in the maximum degree are subject today to influence “ flashpoints “ the Arabian East, for certain will continue decrease. So, the average price of May international futures on oil, including its Russian grades, to second half of April has fallen more than to 3 %. Oil becomes cheaper first of all from - for expectations of possible settlement in Libya.
However here the speculative component also is put. Foreign analytical structures (for example, Bloomberg, Commerzbank AG) hold the opinion that the current price level is connected with position in Libya and in the Arabian East as a whole, than with real balance of demand - offers on world and the regional markets more. Therefore even time Libyan “ a pacification “ is capable to lower the prices. Especially in their falling will result let partial “ returning “ the Libyan hydrocarbons on the world market. And their share in the market, for example, Europe, exceeded 15 %.
As to influence of these tendencies on economy of the Russian Federation, deficiency of the state budget - 2011 at the price on Urals (the basic export grade of the Russian oil) in $105 for barrel will make, as believe in the Ministry of Finance and minekonomrazvitija, 1 - 1,4 % of gross national product. And completely the sufficient budget is possible, by calculations, at $115 dollars for barrel.
Meanwhile in the middle of April the average price of this grade almost reached $120, and sometimes, within April, raised to $122. But this “ a lath “ as well as the prices for foreign grades, can quickly go down, if the Libyan events develop under not military scenario. However while it is difficult to define ranges of price falling as the oil world market is influenced, for example, and dynamics of an economic conjuncture in the USA, by actions of the countries of the OPEC, a situation in others “ nefte gas “ the countries of the Arabian East.
Most likely, the range of the prices for the Russian oil will fluctuate the next weeks in a corridor of $113 - 118 if, of course, there will be no new risk factors, including political which will provoke again splash in the world prices on “ oil “. But anyway a high speculative component in the present prices, including besides exaggeration of political risks, it is capable to lower and raise oil quotations quickly.
Anzhelika Ulanova, the economist, the adviser of group of the legal companies “ KONSUL “