2010 has ended festivelyTentative estimations of Rosstata show investment demand improvement in December, 2010 and some deterioration of dynamics of incomes of the population and a consumer demand, despite traditional growth of consumption in the Russian Federation in the end of the year. Calculations TSMAKP considering seasonal prevalence, on the contrary, specify in acceleration of rates of increase of investments, real salaries and consumption in December, 2010. Interrogated analysts are convinced: investments will be a major factor of economic growth in 2011 provided that the government will not go on easing of a budgetary policy in pre-election year, and the world prices for the foodstuffs are stabilised.
According to the tentative estimation of Rosstata published yesterday, in 2010 kapinvestitsii in annual expression have grown on 6 %, at more than 16 - percentage falling in 2009. It on 0,1 percentage points (item items) more than the estimation of the Ministry of Economics which have sounded last Tuesday (see From January, 25th). In December, 2010 of the investment show growth on 10,1 % in comparison with December, 2009 that corresponds to average rates of their growth, since August, 2010 when their restoration became steady. Not the secret that December investment splash in many respects traditionally speaks seasonal prevalence in the reporting - the companies close fiscal year.
testify to it given Rosstata about volumes of building which in December, 2010 has increased in annual expression by 11,6 % whereas the branch showed positive dynamics only in September and October, 2010 can. investments become in the end of the year, an order of 40 % of all investments occurs at the expense of the fourth quarter - Igor Poljakov from the Center of the macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (TSMAKP) marks. Let`s notice that, according to TSMAKP, growth of investments in December, 2010 taking into account seasonal prevalence was considerably accelerated - more than 5 % in comparison with November, 2010 after in November, 2010 they were reduced to 3 %.
Dannye Rosstata speak about delay of rates of increase of a turn roznitsy from 4,6 % in annual expression in November, 2010 to 3,4 % in December, 2010 (during this period of 2009 falling roznitsy was considerably slowed down). Calculations TSMAKP considering seasonal prevalence, testify to increase in retails in December, 2010 on 1,6 % in comparison with November, 2010 whereas in November growth Igor Poljakov has made only 0,1 items of the item considers that the basic gain of consumption in December have provided neprodovolstvennye that proves to be true the data and partially speaks acceleration of food inflation in second half of 2010. Centre calculations testify to increase in rates of increase of the real salary at 0,8 items of the item in December (0,4 items of the item - In November) and real had incomes of the population - on 4,2 %. The last, except sale of the cash currency, considers which Rosstat as a gain of incomes, according to mister Poljakova, have provided management bonuses and dividends.
however, interrogated analysts say that the fourth quarter of year is traditionally successful, and the data of December is not indicative. Besides growth of consumption and salaries in December, 2010 occurred against growth of unemployment from 6,7 % in November to 7,2 % in December, 2010. Economists are convinced that the investment demand should become a motive power of economic growth in 2011. the companies have serious restrictions on capacities, they should invest. As interest rates while low against growing inflation - Alexey Moiseyev from " speaks; VTB the Capital . Mister Poljakov, also is convinced that 2011 will show Advancing growth of investments in relation to dynamics of consumption. A question how much the government will manage to create a condition for investments to provide with it the necessary direction and efficiency - he marks.
Anton Struchenevsky from Three Dialogue in turn, considers that economy has got out on model of the balanced growth at the expense of own resources . It, in its opinion, confirms actually equal contribution of investments and consumption to economic growth of 2010 and rupture reduction between rates of increase of labour productivity and real incomes: if in 2007, by its estimations, at growth of incomes productivity has increased by 5 % in 2010 growth of these indicators has made 4,3 % and 3 % accordingly. we do not need to achieve advancing dynamics of investments in relation to gross national product, - the mister Struchenevsky is convinced. - We risks that their efficiency can decrease to level of the USSR .
the Main threat to steady regenerative growth in the relation both consumer, and an investment demand economists consider growing inflation. In July, 2010 inflation made 5,5 % in annual expression, having increased to 8,8 % in December, 2010. By Tatyana Orlovoj`s estimations from Nomura, against proceeding dispersal of the food prices in January, 2011 it will increase to 9,3-9,5 %. Interrogated analysts seriously count that the Kremlin and the government will not go on increase in social expenses in pre-election year that could serve raskruchivaniju to an inflationary spiral. the budgeted deficit became a serious deterrent, and expenses began to increase as much as possible carefully - Igor Poljakov underlines.
December given Rosstata have forced economists to reconsider the expectations concerning possible increase in the Central Bank of interest rates on January, 31st, 2010. Anna Zadornov from Goldman Sachs considers that the Central Bank will not go on their increase from - for the weak data on consumption and unemployment and Tatyana Orlova does not expect that the regulator will increase only depositary rate. However, the Central Bank hardly will be possible to hold rates at present level however - nibud long. The assistant to the head of Ministry of Economics Andrey Klepach recognises that risks of acceleration of inflation grow in second half of 2011. risks of substantial increase of the prices in the spring of this year on grain - so, both on bread, and on meat group after it " Remain; - he considers, carrying the factor of a world rise in prices for products to not monetary inflation.