The Iranian bomb get for 2012On creation of the nuclear weapon to Iran it is required from one year till two years - such conclusion contains in the report of influential London International institute of strategic researches published yesterday (IISS). This estimation coincides with the statement of the Minister of Defence of Great Britain Liama Fox who has called the West to prepare to that the nuclear weapon at Iran will appear by the end of 2012. Representing the research, experts IISS have warned about presence of set of the factors, capable to accelerate creation of a bomb by Teheran. Under the worst scenario it will occur already in half a year.
the yesterday`s presentation of report IISS about nuclear, chemical and biological potential of Iran has caused the big agiotage. As it is no wonder, considering heat round this theme, a failure of the next negotiations “ the six “ (see “ “ From January, 24th) and discrepancy of estimations of development of the nuclear program of Iran, stated by politicians and officials of the different countries last weeks. So, on the eve of a meeting “ the six “ the former head of the Israeli investigation “ Mossad “ Meir Dagan has declared that Iran cannot create the nuclear weapon till 2015. It was supported by Washington. And in the beginning of week the Minister of Defence of Great Britain Liam Fox has urged the West countries to prepare to that the bomb at Teheran will appear already by the end of 2012.
from IISS, institute respected in the world, waited for a reality. Researchers have given out it, though and with reservations. Their estimation has appeared much more close to Liama Fox`s forecast: possibilities for creation of the nuclear weapon at Iran “ out of doubt is “ it is told in the report, and for their realisation it is required to it from a year till two years. The difference in time speaks two scenarios of creation of a bomb to which Teheran can resort.
the First means that if 4 thousand centrifuges of factory on uranium enrichment in Natanze will work on a maximum for reception of quantity necessary for one bomb vysokoobogashchennogo uranium year and seven months is required to Iran. Thus Iran should use a four-stage method of the father of the Pakistan nuclear program of Abduly - Kadir of the Khan (IAEA believes that Iranians have got the documentation of this method in the black market).
There is one more method, allowing to receive the necessary quantity of a weapon material for half a year, but for it it is necessary much more nizkoobogashchennogo uranium, than for the first, and the main thing, it never put into practice. Experts IISS believe that Teheran will go “ tested and reliable “ a way.
whatever scenario was used, to it it is necessary to add about half a year on manufacturing boezarjada. As to carriers authors of research believe that the rocket tested by Iran “ Sadzhil - 2 “ more than 2 thousand in km will be accepted by range on arms through two - three years.
speaking about manufacturing terms Iran a nuclear bomb, experts have warned about presence of set of the factors, capable to accelerate process. At the worst for the world a variant the necessary quantity of weapon uranium Teheran can make all for four weeks. However, for this purpose the factory on enrichment of uranium from 6 thousand centrifuges of the third generation is necessary to it. “ but such quantity of centrifuges at Iran is not present, and that is, do not work as it is necessary, - the head of research Mark Fittspatrik then has added has calmed: - But a variant it is impossible to exclude “.
According to the expert, the Iranian program can be accelerated considerably if to Teheran will help Democratic People`s Republic of Korea or other participants of the black market of nuclear technologies and materials. The expert have there and then asked, what role of Russia can be. Mister Fittspatrik has answered that the Russian scientists helped Iran to develop the program of enrichment of uranium, and named it “ very disturbing fact “ but has underlined that “ the former countries USSR, in difference of developing countries, are not active participants of the black market of nuclear technologies “.
the Expert has allocated also the factors, capable to prevent Iran quickly to make a bomb, in particular sabotage. As he said, in 2002 “ someone has intentionally started the defective equipment on the black market, and it became the reason of failure of a great number of the Iranian centrifuges “. And as the most successful example of sabotage the expert named the computer virus Stuxnet developed, according to The New York Times, the American and Israeli experts (see “ “ from January, 17th).
the Russian experts are more careful in forecasts: They consider that Teheran yet has not accepted and consequently to tell the political decision on creation of a bomb about any terms early. “ it is necessary to consider Date from the moment of acceptance of the political decision rupture of relations from IAEA could become which indirect sign, for example, - has declared “ “ the head of the Center socially - political researches Vladimir Yevseyev. - the Russian experts believe that while Iran has made the decision only on creation of a full nuclear fuel cycle. Proceeding from it, the creation period Iran the nuclear weapon can be infinitely long. After all it can go by the way of Japan which is capable to create itself nuclear boezarjad and carriers within months, but anybody does not say that it in half a year becomes nuclear power “.
British with such approach categorically do not agree. They remind that in a case from Democratic People`s Republic of Korea the world already “ has fallen for the bait “ also urge not to repeat former errors.