The Kazakh miracleIn 2006 the bank sector has shown high rates of increase on all space of the CIS countries. At the same time rates of increase and level of development of national bank systems it is essentially separated. Indicators of activity of the Kazakh banks which in a context of scales of national economy left on level of the most developed countries of the world while similar indicators of activity of the Russian banks at the best correspond to the average level of bank systems of other republics CIS look sensational.
verification of accounts
In the international practice it is accepted to estimate level of development of national bank system - the relation of cumulative actives of bank system to national gross national product.
Kazakhstan (101,7 %) became the absolute leader of the CIS in respect of security of economy bank services, having outstripped the nearest persecutors Ukraine (63,5 %), Russia (52,8 %) and Moldova (51,7 %) almost twice.
And for understanding of a real situation in bank space of the CIS first of all it is necessary to pay attention to specific features of each of the named countries. So, visible successes of Moldova speak not real achievements of bank sector, and low rates of increase of gross national product. In Azerbaijan the low parity of bank actives to gross national product, on the contrary, speaks high rates of increase of gross national product therefore the national bank system does not keep up with prompt rates of increase of the Azerbaijan economy. The absolute outsider among bank systems of the CIS countries is the bank system of Uzbekistan where not only the relation of actives to the capital (from 37 % to 34,7 % was reduced), but also is noted one their lowest rates of increase of bank systems in the CIS. The bank system of Uzbekistan is one of the most closed and opaque that concerns even its cumulative indicators. So, if in 2005 the volume of cumulative portfolios of credits of the Uzbek banks has decreased from $3,3 million to $3,2 million following the results of 2006 the Central bank of Uzbekistan at all has not published this indicator that it is possible to regard as its further deterioration.
on the basis of calculations and taking into account resulted above reasons it is possible to ascertain that bank systems of four largest CIS countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine - essentially surpasses bank systems of other members of the CIS. Last two years these countries show also extremely close rates of increase of gross national product, and their financial systems have close indicators.
though and on this indicator, that is under the relation of cumulative actives per capita, Kazakhstan has surpassed the nearest competitor Russia on 22 %.
the Analysis of indicators of bank systems of the CIS countries in the last two days allows to understand the reasons of rapid development of the Kazakh banks. For this period the relation of actives to gross national product of Kazakhstan has increased more than twice - from 48,5 % to 101,7 %. The similar situation is observed with growth of the relation of credits to gross national product (growth from 32,7 % to 68,7 %) and the capital to gross national product (growth from 6,3 % to 13,4 %).
Moreover, indicators of Kazakhstan seem impressing not only against the CIS countries, but also in comparison with indicators of the majority of countries of Eastern Europe for which the relation of actives to gross national product makes basically 60 - 100 %, except for the most developed bank systems of Czechia and Croatia with factors about 110 %. Thus, on formal indicators the bank system of Kazakhstan is comparable to bank systems of the developed countries of the world - the USA (70 %) and Germany (137 %) though has considerable potential of growth, considering indicators of France (239 %) and Great Britain (340 %).
the Radical reform
Record indicators of bank system of Kazakhstan speak the growth of its cumulative actives connected with institutional reforms occurring in republic.
after carrying out of the Central Bank of Kazakhstan of a radical reform of the national bank system assuming sharp reduction of an aggregate number of operating commercial banks, for January, 1st, 2007 in republic there were 33 commercial banks against 1189 in Russia. So sharp reduction of number of commercial banks has allowed to organise more address and flexible bank supervision, and the main thing - to approach it to the international level. So, since January, 1st, 2006 in Kazakhstan specifications of Basel II regarding the standard approach have been entered at calculation of adequacy of the capital, including the market and operational risk of banks is included in calculation, requirements to control systems of risks and internal control are detailed, requirements on realisation by banks of an annual self-estimation of control systems by risks are entered. In Russia introduction of Basel II while only is discussed, according to plan of Bank of Russia it should take place in 2008, but can be postponed and for later term.
at the same time introduction of an advanced experience of bank supervision not only promotes strengthening of stability of bank system and consequently, to growth of credit ratings of banks and inflow of investments, but also directly it is favourable to banks as assumes more exact estimation of risks so, especially for big banks, reduction of formation of reserves that positively affects the general profitability of their activity.
In Kazakhstan obligatory drawing up by reporting banks under the international standards with obligatory audition is introduced. It also promoted increase transparentnosti national bank system, to growth of trust from internal and external investors, to growth of loans of the Kazakh banks in the international markets that as a result has provided growth of the general indicators of bank system. It has appeared so prompt that local regulators have attended to its restriction, standard having adhered the international loans of banks to size of their own capital.
important nuance of reaction of activity of commercial banks is definition of specifications of sufficiency of the capital. Specifications operating in Kazakhstan (5 - 6 % for the relation of own capital of the first level to cumulative actives and 10 - 12 % for the relation of own capital to the actives weighed on degree of risk) do not create real obstacles to growth of loans and finally growth of cumulative actives of bank system.
moreover, it is necessary to consider that very high concentration is peculiar to bank system of Kazakhstan: on ten largest banks 94 % of cumulative actives of bank system are necessary is means that actually all bank system has the highest credit ratings predynvestitsionnogo level. Thereby ten largest Kazakh banks, as a matter of fact, define the general dynamics of bank system. In Russia on ten largest banks 54 % of actives of bank system are necessary only. Decrease in quantity of the operating credit organisations, as a rule, assumes growth of their investment appeal, including in the opinion of foreign participants of the market of the capital.
the lesson presented by the Kazakh banks to all banks of the CIS countries, is simple and instructive: for creation of modern bank system of the international level accurately enough to define priorities of introduction of an advanced experience in the field of bank regulation, management of risks, increases transparentnosti and creations of conditions of equality of a competition then it is necessary to realise the given priorities resolutely and consistently. Results will not keep itself waiting long. For Russia such possibility also exists.