Hens to deathto Russia are threatened with deficiency “ Bush`s legs “
Yesterday minselhoz the USA for the first time for 20 years were officially admitted by the detection fact in territory of the country vysokopatogennogo a virus of a chicken flu. While disease is found only on one of farms of the State of Texas, however the history with its distribution to the countries Jugo - East Asia allows to consider the most pessimistic scenario of succession of events: an absolute prohibition on import of meat from the USA. For Russia which is the largest importer “ Bush`s legs “ he assumes deficiency of chicken meat and a rise in prices for it.
the Virus of a chicken flu has been revealed on Friday on one of farms of district Gonzales of the State of Texas during mass checks of integrated poultry farms which now spend vetsluzhby the USA. After that in radius of 10 miles from the disease centre other tests have been carried out, but cases of a chicken flu it was revealed not. And main vetvrach Texas Bob Hillman has hastened to declare that the found out virus nizkopatogennyj and is not dangerous to people. However already yesterday on specially called a press - conferences representatives vetsluzhby minselhoza the USA (USDA) have made the opposite statement: the virus found in Texas (shtamm H5N2) is vysokopatogennym and represents health hazard of the person.
the USA and faced earlier a virus of a chicken flu. On February, 10th disease of a bird on one of farms of the State of Delaware (shtamm H7N2), and a bit later - in Pennsylvania (shtamm H2N2) has been revealed. However in both cases it was a question about nizkopatogennom a virus. This time it is a question about much more dangerous vysokopatogennom a virus. The countries Jugo in the end of the last year have closely faced one of its versions - East Asia. For today in China, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and other countries 22 person have already died of a chicken flu, the number of the killed birds is measured tens millions, and deliveries of chicken meat from these countries are completely stopped.
in the USA with vysokopatogennym a flu the poultry-farming branch did not face since 1983 when in a number of states (first of all in the same Pennsylvania) it was necessary to destroy all poultry completely. And though yesterday the main veterinary surgeon USDA of Ron de Heven has declared that no epidemiological communication between disease flashes to Asia and the USA is present, a situation all the same extremely serious. At least the department of veterinary science of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation has entered at once a temporary restriction on import of fowl from Texas.
now the basic question - whether will be possible vetsluzhbam to keep the USA distribution of a virus within the limits of one staff. US authorities are assured that will be possible. However, if it does not happen and vysokopatogennyj the virus will amaze two largest from the point of view of manufacture of fowl of staff - Arkansas and Georgia, the world market of fowl waits rigid deficiency. After all the USA are the big exporter of fowl (2,477 million t in a year, or half of all world export), any country cannot compensate leaving of such supplier.
for Russia distribution of a virus of a flu across the USA will have even more unpleasant consequences. The volume of consumption of fowl in the Russian Federation makes hardly more than 2 million t in a year, and exactly half from this volume (1,05 million) arrives to us from - for borders. Thus on “ Bush`s legs “ 74 %, that is more than 700 thousand t are necessary. The Russian integrated poultry farms to compensate such volume not in a condition. It is impossible to buy such quantity of chicken meat and from other large supplier - Brazil: the Brazilian deliveries already go on the European market instead of the Asian. Besides, it is necessary to consider that “ Bush`s legs “ - traditionally cheapest goods in the market and even if to assume that deficiency of chicken meat will not be, it will be all the same more expensive.
however if vetsluzhbe the USA it will be possible to cope with a virus, restrictions on import of chicken meat from Texas practically will not be reflected in our market. On 16 integrated poultry farms of this staff which had permissions to fowl deliveries to Russia, it was necessary less than 10 % from all volume of import “ Bush`s legs “.
DMITRY - DOBROV, ALEXANDER - SIMONENKO