Rus News Journal

Deficiency as the trade engine

a bond market

placings of corporate bonds Coming on this week will be small on volume. For this reason, analysts consider, they are doomed to success. So to the investors, counting to buy cheap papers, at auctions there will be nothing to do.
Despite great volume of primary bonded placings last week, the small rise in prices for corporate bonds has proceeded. The primary factors supporting demand for rouble tools, on - former remain a stable rouble exchange rate to dollar and high rouble liquidity. According to the chief of department of the analysis of Rosbank Pavel Suprunova, “ active inflow of the non-residents buying in corporate sector in basic well-known the papers, such as ` Gazprom ` and ALROSA became a tendency of last weeks in the market. At the same time sharp falling of profitablenesses of these papers last days leads to growth of interest of small and average players to papers of the second and third echelons, and thereupon placings of representatives of these segments coming on this week should be accompanied by the raised demand “. With it other analysts agree also. In the general opinion, new bonds of emitters of this week - the companies “ the Red East - Invest “ and “ Bashkirenergo “ - should become “ firm “ papers of the second echelon.
on Wednesday debut placing of bonds Open Company " will begin; the Red East - Invest “ for the sum 1,5 mlrd roubles for a period of three years which will increase quantity “ drunk “ bonds in the market. 100 % of shares of company belong to Open Society “ the Brewing company ` the Red East ` “ which together with Open Society “ Solodovpivo “ acts as the guarantor under a loan. Brewing branch on the public debt market already left “ Ochakovo “ PIT, “ Tinkoff “ and “ the Dignity of Interbrju “. And “ the Dignity of Interbrju “ concerns the first echelon and bargains under very low profitableness about 8 % of the annual. Profitableness on the rests is at level 13,75 - 14,5 % annual. According to an analyst of the debt market of the company “ Aton “ Alexey JU, “ taking into account low indicators of profitability of brewing business ` the Red East ` and concerning high debt loading fair profitableness of bonds is in the same range 13,75 - 14,5 % annual. The company profit hardly covers forthcoming coupon payments, and repayment of bonds will be possible only at the expense of attraction of new loans. The organizer and the emitter positions release at level of profitableness 11,5 - 12 % annual, however are very optimistic estimations “. The leading analyst of Open Company ` VICK - the Broker ` Oleg Generalov too critically concerns an estimation of profitableness the emitter: “ it is necessary to note low profitability of both companies, besides at ` the Red East ` there was a considerable decrease in a gain and net profit in comparison with the similar period of last year. A financial condition of Open Society ` Solodovpivo ` steadier. Comparing forthcoming placing of papers of the emitter to already taken place placings of the companies of the same branch, it is possible to assume that profitableness will be in a range from 13 to 15 % annual “. One more of participants of the market has agreed with the previous figures, having noticed, truth that “ profitableness 11,5 - 12 % annual can be received, if the organizer has already provided a subscription “.
At the same time the chief of department of researches of debt markets IBG “ NIKojl “ Boris Ginzburg considers that auction on placing of beer bonds will cause a great interest. “ ` the Red East ` - the beer company number four to Russia, volumes of its manufacture grow. From minuses it is necessary to notice that level of its profitability essentially differs from that at ` Baltic ` and ` Ochakov ` (30 %), but is similar to profitability ` San Interbrju ` (12 - 15 %). Besides, ` the Red East ` is not present at the central Russian regions where sell the production first three beer companies. But rates of manufacture ` the Red East ` are high enough “. Boris Ginzburg predicts level of profitableness of bonds 11,5 - 12 % annual.
the loan planned for Thursday “ Bashkirenergo “ analysts named less interesting to small investors: from - for small volume (500 million roubles) the paper will be less liquid and will disperse on large players. The director for management of actives IK “ Trinfiko “ Egor Krotkov: “ ` Bashkirenergo ` already has one bonded loan, therefore, most likely, the small loan will disperse well, and profitableness will be at the bottom lath of expectations. The organizer of a loan has assumed the small award to profitableness of the first loan, that is 11,5 % annual to polutoragodovoj to the offer “. Oleg Generalov: “ At ` Bashkirenergo ` steady enough financial condition, high liquidity, however values of indicators of profitability almost zero. One of serious problems of this emitter - rather low gain. Considering profitableness of the first release of bonds of the company, it is possible to assume that profitableness on the second release will be in a range 11 - 12 % “.
Other analysts estimate cost of papers “ Bashkirenergo “ above. Boris Ginzburg: “ As early as a year - two back profitability ` Bashkirenergo ` was highest of all similar companies. Now it falls, but it is not beyond the industry. I do not give to this fact of special value - falling profitability essentially does not reduce credit status of the company. Profitableness of new bonds should be up to standard 10 - 11 % annual taking into account the award. Bargaining papers ` Altajenergo ` and ` Irkutskenergo ` have profitableness at level of 13,5 % annual, and these enterprises for credit quality are worse “.
According to the chief of department of investment investments Petrokommertsbanka Vasily Ivanov, “ profitableness of new bonds to polutoragodovoj to the offer can make 10 - 10,5 % annual. Profitableness ` Bashkirenergo - 2 ` should be more low ` Bashkirenergo - 1 ` which is not so liquid release as has been placed during not so successful time “. Alexey JU: “ In 18 months the offer on the preschedule repayment which on terms approximately coincides with repayment of the first release of the bonds bargaining now with profitableness of 9,3 % annual is provided. Hence, the rough rate of the coupon on the second release is in a range 9 - 9,25 % annual. The company differs high credit status, and also is capable to generate a positive free monetary stream steadily. Besides, the company is not included into the Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“, that is there is no the risk of reorganisation inherent in other power companies “.