Rus News Journal

Presidential desire

the share market

Old factors of growth - surplus of liquidity in the market and growth of optimism of investors - last week have led to that RTS index has exceeded the historical maximum. Investors, seemingly, have so actively picked up idea “ pre-election rally “ that the further growth of quotations of the most liquid papers any more does not cause doubts. Experts argue only on when all it will end and in what actions it is necessary to translate enclosed in “ blue counters “ means.
many analysts assert that the Russian market is not influenced any more by any events; it confidently grows, warmed up by hearings about buying up of actions by certain western funds and constant record currency interventions of the Central Bank, leaders to increase in liquidity of the monetary market. Anna Gulevich, an analyst of Metallinvestbanka: “ Despite even more often sounding statements about peregretosti the market, all realise that while there is a support in a kind of so powerful factor as superfluous liquidity, it is possible not to be afraid of falling and it is necessary ` to sit to the last in actions ` not to miss growth percent. Buy all “.
the general condition of the market is not influenced even by possible occurrence of negative news on business YUKOS. It seems that only news about company utter annihilation can lower its current quotations considerably. Denis Gorvat, the trader of the company “ the Three Dialogue “: “ If on YUKOS business next week negative news hardly it will have the big resonance arrive. If that is added a positive, probably, we will see the price of these actions at level of $13 “.
Possibility of speculative game round decisions on reforming the Russian Open Society “ UES of Russia “ also does not represent a great interest for participants of the market. Despite the next statement of the minister of economic development of Herman Gref that the decision on OGK will be accepted to elections, experts practically do not hope for it. Vitaly Domnich, an analyst on electric power industry of Guta - bank: “ the Probability of acceptance of any important decisions on the eve of presidential election is low. On the agenda of session of board of directors of the Russian Open Society ` the UES of Russia ` costs on February, 27th discussion of projects of reforming of three regional power supply systems: Open Society ` Altajenergo `, Open Society ` Burjatenergo ` and Open Society ` Tjumenenergo `. For participants of the share market of the decision under the given projects can represent small interest. Actions ` Altajenergo ` and ` Burjatenergo ` do not bargain on the basic trading platforms of the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange and RTS and are included only in system RTS Board. Actions ` Tjumenenergo ` are in 100 - the percentage property of the Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“ “.
Sergey Simakov, the main dealer of department of operations with actions of Vneshtorgbanka: “ There are no factors, allowing to assume that the next week will be worse than the previous. But ` pre-election rally ` can end a little before elections. The one who ` sat down ` on this rally, probably, will try to fix profit on Thursday - Friday before presidential election on March, 14th that can cause some delay of growth “.
At such mood of participants of the market clearly that now the main thing for the investor - to guess the moment of end of present growth and in time to fix profit. Nevertheless to the most conservative investors of analytics recommend to fix profit on successful positions already now and not to shift money from one papers in others.
almost all analysts advise to buy up papers of the second echelon. Alexander Pavlov, analyst IK “ the Power capital “: “ we Will note an interesting situation - demand for the Russian actions has moved from the western investors to the domestic. Actions with small free float and not having listing at foreign stock exchanges, that is the action of the second and third echelons show the greatest growth. For this reason we see weak dynamics of papers ` Nornikelja ` on which action are placed ADR in rather great volumes “. Dmitry Tsaregorodtsev, an analyst on oil and gas complex IK “ the Prospectus “: “ the Index was moved upwards not by sharp jumps of one of papers, and papers of the second echelon. And the end it is not visible to process. In particular, ` Transneft `, regional a telecoma, ` daughters ` ` Rosneft ` and the multinational corporations can keep former dynamics. As to recommendations on sale obvious candidates are ` Norilsk nickel `, VSMPO, ` Orenburgneft `, and also many regional power supply systems (more than dozens have already exceeded the fair prices for 25 % and more) “.
About pereotsenennosti actions of regional joint-stock companies - energo other experts speak also. Ivan Vorobev, leading analyst of the Baltic financial agency: “ In Severo - the Western region the largest Scandinavian power holding Fortum continues to increase the share in ` Lenenergo ` and ` Kolenergo `. In the last some months Fortum have increased the share in ` Lenenergo ` with 15 to 20,7 % by buying up of actions in the open market. Thus it is necessary for holding to gather additionally at least actions to a blocking package (25 %), and because of the reduced offer he is compelled to offer the price with the award of 20 % to the market. It is obvious that when Fortum will finish the share to blocking, the price for these actions will fall. Actions ` ` are overestimated at present by Kolenergo on 11 % on the relation of the current price to fair fundamental “.
Replacement “ electric “ to actions can quite become “ metal “. Igor Volkov, trader IK “ Antanta the Capital “: “ Last week it was possible to observe small calm in metallurgy which will end on this. By our estimations, potential for almost 100 - percentage growth in a current situation actions ` Uralelektromedi `, Bashkir mednosernogo industrial complex, Ashinsky metal works, ` Ufalejnikelja ` possess. them will disperse in the price with caution on the general price levels of this branch then to try to sell to any large investor. To fix profit I has recommended in such papers, as actions VSMPO, Sinarsky trumpet factory and NLMK “.