The fifth approach to the presidentOligarchs offer new game rules
business and the power
Today Vladimir Putin should accept delegation of the Russian union of industrialists and businessmen (RSPP). It is the fifth meeting of the present president with group of oligarchs, not including its conversations with the oligarchs, passing confidentially. Vladimir Putin`s mutual relation and the big business - a constant element of formation of spent economic policy. But today both parties are obviously dissatisfied with results of meetings. Oligarchs - that officials emasculate almost all arrangements with the president. The president - an abundance of the questions demanding its direct intervention.
crisis of a trunk-call genre
For the first time to president Putin group of the oligarchs frightened of activization of law enforcement bodies and hearings about nationalisation, have invited on July, 28th, 2000. Then the president declared about them ravnoudalennosti, but promised not to spend a deprivation. To start dialogue between the power and large business of it was enough. At following meetings it was possible to build system of achievement and even realisation of certain arrangements.
global arrangements was three: the state does not select the property at oligarchs; oligarchs do not interfere with the pure policy; the government and the Duma liberalise the economic legislation. Large infringements of first two agreements it is not fixed if, of course, not to consider considerable number of the criminal cases got against known businessmen, on the one hand, and attempts of revival by a number of oligarchs of the oppositional channel of TV - 6 - with another.
with liberalisation of the legislation it is more difficult. Here oligarchs and the president obviously speak different languages. “ tell, - has addressed as - that Vladimir Putin to one of the visitors, - how much tax reform has reduced fiscal loading by your enterprises? “ - “ To you to answer in essence or how it is necessary? “ - specification has followed. “ certainly, in essence! “ - the president has smiled. “ how much “ - the oligarch has answered. “ cannot be! - the president has with astonishment looked at the prime minister sitting on its right hand, - the profit tax after all has decreased with 35 to 24 % “. - “ Truly. But taking into account the cancelled investment privilege earlier we paid only 18 % “ - the oligarch has explained and has tried to develop thought on why rates of increase of gross national product in China remain at level of 10 %: there level of tax withdrawals from balances of the enterprises does not exceed 20 %. And in Russia - 36 %. Here and a real source of healthy growth. But the president, under the certificate of its interlocutor, conversation on this theme has not supported - it has simply lost to it interest. Though its adviser Andrey Illarionov is for certain ready to support the offer on radical decrease in taxes.
Differently, what to do, the president and oligarchs still as - that agree, and here is how and in what terms - is not present. For example, currency liberalisation discussed at all three last meetings, but as a result it was possible to achieve only reduction of norm of obligatory sale of an export currency gain with 75 to 50 % and the permission to place on accounts of foreign banks to $70 thousand for acquisition of securities. The head who has lost patience of Incorporated machine-building factories Kaha Bendukidze named a present currency mode fascist. And one of its colleagues on RSPP so has explained a situation: “ As soon as the president gives the chance to officials for interpretation of the instructions, those there and then roll up any question. The president here has told two years ago that surtax should be 13 % and not point above, and nobody has dared to object! “
the Today`s meeting with the president, by data, oligarchs have decided to spend game rules on - new. The main thing - to agree about new rules. Vladimir Putin will ask, in - the first, to give to the subordinates more than direct instructions which cannot be interpreted ambiguously. In - the second, the president will persuade definitively to incur a role of the Supreme arbitrator at carrying out of all important reforms. According to many oligarchs, the state mechanism simply slips at collision with raznonapravlennymi interests. And decisions or are not accepted at all, or officials, having accepted this or that party, push mutually exclusive decisions.
intentions of oligarchs should cause puzzled questions. If the president agrees with their scheme of a country government it is necessary to enter a rigid authoritative mode into Russia. Not all it will be pleasant to oligarchs. (Though cases when liberal reforms were carried out by dictators are known; a favourite example of the presidential adviser - Chile.) However, the Russian oligarchs not against some softened authoritative scheme: the president delegates as much as possible the administrative functions downwards - entrusted, but at the same time to competent persons.
and only having convinced the president to strengthen the personal authority, oligarchs expect to present it all the same set of concrete wishes on the problems which are not solved on years: to liberalise a currency mode, to facilitate tax burden, to reform natural monopolies. Is, truth, and new offers. For example, considerably to reduce a state machinery and, accordingly, state expenses that quite in the spirit of Andrey Illarionov`s concept. The thought is clear: less officials - there are less than taxes, it is less than corruption. Thus for a role of the surgeon who is cutting off from a body of the state the whole official layers, should be appointed, as oligarchs, the person not from the White house, and the presidential commissioner consider.
Oligarchs and the government are uniform that new rules of interaction of the power and business should include intervention restriction in economy from power structures and Office of Public Prosecutor. But the government and oligarchs perepasovyvajut is each other right the corresponding reference to Vladimir Putin, without whose intervention the problem will not be solved.
If the meeting of the president planned for today with oligarchs will not be transferred to the next (third) time and if oligarchs do not refuse at the last minute promotion of the above described global initiatives bright action in the Kremlin will be provided. To the president for certain it will not be boring. To it after all will suggest to spend some kind of hardware revolution.
however hardly the president will agree to become the Supreme arbitrator - after all then it is necessary to stake the rating. In case of a failure of this or that reform extreme there will be not a prime minister or the Ministry of Finance, and the president. At oligarchs the logic: If there is a high rating why it not to use? But on the threshold of new elections nobody will risk. Besides the Supreme arbitrator should make independent concrete decisions. And how to choose the right decision when oligarchs insist on immediate removal of restrictions on export of the capital and easing of tax burden is unique, and the prime minister and the chairman of the Central Bank suggest not to hurry up? More likely the president will choose golden mean, and it again will not arrange neither oligarchs, nor officials.
however, other way at oligarchs, except change of a format of meetings with the president and achievement though any concrete arrangements with it, simply are not present. To former forms of dialogue Vladimir Putin obviously loses interest. When for “ a round table “ more than 20 persons, they simply have not time to express. It is impossible also fierce disputes as oligarchs try to develop in advance a common position and to inform it to the president without any acute angles. Even more often, with alarm participants of meetings mark, president Putin quickly loses interest to discussed problems and obviously reflects about something the. Not casually recently Vladimir Putin prefers to a collective sit-round gathering with oligarchs individual meetings. Conversation turns out more concrete and substantial, and it is possible not to give universal promises.
KONSTANTIN - SMIRNOV