The world economy demands some more oilSmoothly it Russia
gives only the forecast
Yesterday in the monthly report on a condition of the market of oil the International power agency has declared that world demand for oil in 2004 will reach a maximum for last 16 years. Thus the unique serviceable supplier increasing manufacture of raw materials in process of growth of demand, Russia is.
in the report of the International power agency (MEA) which is the adviser for power industrially developed 26 countries - the basic importers of oil, it is told: “ the Forecast of world demand for oil shows the greatest absolute growth of consumption of oil since 1988 “. Under forecasts of experts, demand for oil in 2004 will make 80,6 million barrels a day that on 2 million barrels a day more than in 2003. We will notice that any more the first month MEA reconsiders the forecast of demand towards increase (this time on 330 thousand Barrels a day) from - for “ stronger, than it was expected, growth of consumption of energy by industrially developed countries and China “ where economic growth has considerably amplified. As it is marked in the report, only in China demand for oil in the first quarter 2004 has grown on 1 million barrels a day. The data about oil consumption in the countries of the Organization of economic cooperation and development in the first quarter 2004 shows that demand there was on 580 thousand barrels more than predicted agency last month.
at the same time experts notice that in April, 2004 oil manufacture in the world was reduced to 440 thousand barrels a day - to 81,5 million barrels a day 415 thousand barrels a day from which is necessary on the OPEC. In MEA consider, as the countries - the petroexporters who are not entering into the OPEC, cannot provide necessary increase in oil recovery in 2004. A unique exception, experts underline, Russia is: For four months 2004 oil recovery in Russia has grown almost on 30 %.
the Above described tendencies force analysts to draw a conclusion that “ the long-awaited increase in economic activity brings up a question of necessity of stable deliveries of oil for maintenance of steady economic growth “. As MEA predicts deficiency of deliveries of oil the petroexporters who are not entering into the OPEC, at level of 800 thousand barrels in day this year (except for Russia), experts declare that members of the OPEC should extract on the average at least on 500 thousand barrels a day more. By estimates of agency, the cartel quota should make not present 23,5 million barrels a day, and all 26,4 million If to consider that already now the OPEC extracts on 2 million barrels a day more than the established quotas, and to remember a recent appeal of Saudi Arabia to increase an official quota of cartel by 1,5 million barrels a day (see From May, 11th) it will turn out an order of 27 million barrels in day which as experts MEA believe, can lead the market of oil to balance.
however the market does not wait some the big oil from the OPEC. We will remind that after the statement of the minister of oil of Saudi Arabia Ali Naimi about possible increase in extraction of the OPEC of the price at oil for one day have lost more than $1 (on May, 11th the prices for oil in the USA were reduced from $40 for barrel to $38,6), but already yesterday have overcome a boundary of $40 for barrel and have reached $40,38, as well as predicted. Moreover, as analysts MEA mark, the forecast of demand for oil can be once again reconsidered towards increase. Even despite measures of the government of the Peoples Republic of China on “ to cooling of economic growth, it will not lead to essential reduction of demand for oil “. So at the Russian oil industry workers fine prospects.
ALEXEY - SHAPOVALOV