Events and money of last weekAlexander Matjuhin,
operating a portfolio “ PioGlobal Esset Management “
the Share market
last week the market licked wounds after the panic falling which have begun on May, 7th. This time the collapse has been caused by the serious external reasons. The data published in before last Friday about dynamics of unemployment in the USA (unexpected increase constantly occupied for April on 288 thousand persons while look-ahead value on polls Bloomberg made only 170 thousand) Have confirmed assumptions of presence of essential economic shifts in the American economy. Investors were even more assured that the long-term tendency of growth of interest rates is inevitable. As a result on all emerging markets the most powerful wave of sales as in the present state of affairs risks of investors (and consequently, and streams of financial assets) in these markets should be reduced has swept.
on Monday at the Russian stock exchanges there was a day off, however the Russian papers continued to become cheaper on the international platforms. Probably, falling was urged on by Ahmata Kadyrov`s destruction as a result of act of terrorism on May, 9th - fears concerning possible strengthening of instability in the Chechen Republic were a signal to the further sales. On Tuesday we have seen this postponed falling and on the Russian platforms. RTS index was closed on a mark of 577 points that corresponds to level of the beginning of year. If who was going to enter into the Russian share market this year it there was, probably, one of the opportunities as all possible risks of the separate companies are already put in the prices. However many of those who makes serious decisions on investments, on - visible, were even in holidays. And on May, 11th very few people has dared to take the fallen in price shares though the prices for oil were on - former is unprecedented are high, currency reserves of the Central Bank grew, and other fundamental factors of the Russian economy have not worsened.
on May, 12th negative moods have a little decreased, that was promoted, in particular, by positive dynamics of the world markets and the price for the oil, even more increased despite appeals of Saudi Arabia to the OPEC to increase extraction. However, contrary to growth of oil quotations sales of some actions of this sector have proceeded. However Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“ papers, in many respects thanks to closing of the short positions opened the day before by exchange speculators, using prompt falling of the prices have considerably grown; papers " grew; Norilsk nickel “ too strongly fallen in price earlier from - for fears of the further falling of the prices for metals. The same day there was a news about inclusion of actions “ Sibirtelekoma “ and the Savings Bank in the Russian index MSCI. As a result and these actions have shown very strong growth, especially papers “ Sibirtelekoma “.
On Thursday the beginning of trading session in the Russian stock market was marked by growth of quotations. The YUKOS was the man of the hour. On the eve of its action fell below $9, balancing hardly above last level of support which falling in a precipice would follow. However the YUKOS has resisted, and, on - visible, on hearings about achievement by the company of arrangements with tax departments of its action to the middle of day have grown almost to $10. They pulled all market, and RTS index has punched level of 600 points. Nevertheless fears and volatilnost remained high. Participants of the auctions constantly operated with caution on the western markets and as the American futures did not predict growth at opening of transatlantic stock exchanges, the Russian market has handed over a considerable part of the won positions and RTS index was closed on value of 596 points.
last day weeks of the price for oil have reached new superrecord marks (in the USA it there was even a Thursday, on May, 13th). On Nju - the Jorksky trading stock exchange (NYMEX) the official price of Texas oil Light Sweet with delivery in June was established on a mark of $41,08 for barrel. Thus, for the first time for 21 year since March, 1983 when on NYMEX trade in oil futures has begun, the official price of the contract on oil Light Sweet of the next month of delivery has exceeded $41 for barrel. The prices on platinoidy also have grown up. However the rise in prices for raw materials has not rendered positive influence on the Russian market. All trading day on all spectrum of papers decrease was observed. The investors who have had in first half in May considerable losses, have preferred to have for the weekend in the portfolio only money. Only in last hour the auctions there was a demand for variety of actions: the Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“, LUKOIL, “ Gazprom “. As a whole all market was tightened upward and closed in plus by previous day with result on an index of RTS of 597 points. Probably, such closing should instal optimism and hopes of the subsequent growth of quotations.
the bond market
In the market currency bonds also was on May, 7th a collapse after the announcement of the data of new workplaces in the USA and inevitable in this connection increase in the near future interest rates. Quotations of indicative release “ Russia - 30 “ have decreased almost on 3 percentage points, and their spread to ten years` American bonds has extended on 50 basic points. Last Monday on the market did not arrive any new economic data. However the huge spread of the Russian eurobonds to the American bonds continued to increase. Act of terrorism in the Chechen Republic, of course, was on May, 9th one of the reasons of it. Since Tuesday restoration of the Russian bonds has begun. After spreads to US Treasuries have extended more than on 100 basic points, there was a considerable demand. It was promoted by statements of management PIMCO (the largest fund of debts of developing countries) for excessive falling of the prices and positive recommendation JP Morgan about the Russian bonds from - for the high prices for oil.
rouble bonds have begun falling on Tuesday, in many respects repeating dynamics of eurobonds. More all it has concerned the most liquid releases. Corporate bonds of the first echelon have lost to one percentage point. Profitableness “ Gazprom - 3 “ has grown to 9,8 % annual. The Moscow debts have even more aloud fallen: Profitableness “ Moscow - 38 “ for example, has grown to 8,8 % annual. In the second echelon spreads between the supply and demand, as usual, have extended, many bonds have lost liquidity.
also it is necessary to notice that dollar exchange rate growth continues to influence home market of bonds to rouble as the dollar income of tools involving foreign investors falls, and money resources flow on the currency market. Therefore, despite some restoration of currency bonds, quotations of rouble federal loan bonds continued to decrease within a week. In the corporate market liquidity has fallen: many investors wanted to sell the papers, but did not find buyers.
in general the situation for the investors holding rouble bonds with profitableness below inflation at the growing dollar, is pitiable enough. If the Central Bank really by all means, up to provotsirovanija currency outflow abroad, tries to keep rouble growth these investors will be “ to earn “ the negative real rouble rate. It is necessary to hope that if the monetary authorities will continue to struggle with inflation pressure of petrodollars will lead to strengthening of national currency.