Credit disorganisationYesterday the Bank of Russia has published the data about volumes of the delayed debts of physical persons to 30 largest Russian banks. The statistics of the Central Bank testifies that in 2006 volume “ bad debts “ has increased twice. By estimations of participants of the market, real level of delay is near-critical and makes 4 - 7 % on bank sector as a whole and 20 - 30 % on bezzalogovym to crediting kinds. Participants of the market consider high rates of increase of delay under credits of physical persons menacing for bank system.
yesterday the Bank of Russia has published the summary statistical information on 30 largest banks as of January, 1st, 2007. According to the published data, for 2006 the volume of the delayed debts has sharply grown in absolute and in relative expression. If for January, 1st, 2006 the delayed debts of physical persons to banks made hardly more than 10 mlrd rbl. That for January, 1st, 2007 this figure has increased more than three times - to almost 33 mlrd rbl. In a percentage parity with total amount of crediting of physical persons delay for 2005 has made 1 %, and for 2006 - j - already 1,94 %, that is almost twice it is more. So sharp dynamics in this sector is marked for the first time. So, growth of volume of the delayed credits in total amount of crediting of physical persons in 2005 in comparison with 2004 - the m has made only 0,2 %.
In tridtsatku the largest banks the Bank of Russia has included “ Ak the Leopard “ Alpha bank, “ Zenith “ Bank of Moscow, Binbank, VTB and “ VTB - 24 “ “ the Renaissance “ Gazprombank, Impeksbank, “ rajffajzenbank Austria “ Sibacadembank, MDM - bank, the International Moscow bank, the International industrial bank, Juniastrum bank, Nomos - bank, “ Petrokommerts “ Promsvjazbank, Promstrojbank, Rosbank, Rosselhozbank, “ the Russian standard “ The Savings Bank, Communication - bank, Citybank, Sobinbank, Transkreditbank, NB “ the Trust “ “ Uralsib “.
Experts are assured that the figures received by the Central Bank, do not reflect a real situation in bank sector and actually the situation is much worse. “ the data of Bank of Russia is based on the official information given by banks in the Central Bank in which banks aspire to embellish the validity: for this purpose it is enough possibilities, - the senior analyst of the company ` tells Aton - the Broker ` to Rustam Batashev. - the Real picture is much worse, especially on the banks, engaged only retail crediting “. So, according to the official reporting on MSFO one of leaders of the market the express train - crediting of Houm the Credit end Finans of bank, its level “ bad debts “ makes about 15 %, and according to agency “ Rusrejting “ - comes nearer to 30 %. According to Rustama Batasheva, taking into account the specified reservations the real volume of delay in the bank market makes not less than 4 %, and in a segment bezzalogovogo - in times it is more than crediting. An estimation of the senior vice-president Communication - Arcady Komjaginsky`s bank more rigid - 6 - 7 %.
Participants of the market consider high rates of increase of delay under credits of physical persons menacing. “ under the West European standards critical depending on structure of a credit portfolio of bank and the size of interest rates it is considered delay level in 5 % and above “ - general director TSEA " speaks; Interfax “ Michael Matovnikov. In its opinion, double jump of volume of delay on physical persons in 2006 is caused by effect of accumulation. “ delay comes to light not at once and eventually in absolute expression only grows, - mister Matovnikov speaks. - Thus in relative expression dynamics of growth of delay is less, than in absolute, in connection with high rates of increase of volumes of crediting “. On the official statistics of the Central Bank, the market of crediting of physical persons last year has grown on 60 %, and its volume has made 1,6 trln rbl.
According to experts, the reason of increase in volume “ bad debts “ physical persons the aggressive credit policy of banks is. “ in 2006 there was a qualitative saturation of poor credit base in retail services, - the analyst on bank sector of investment group ` explains the Capital ` Sergey Galkin. - that rates of the delayed debts have started to decrease, banks should select clients more carefully. And for the last year the client base under the most brave credits only grew “. According to the vice-president of MDM - Anatoly Krajnikova`s bank, the situation is aggravated with working conditions of banks with trading networks which demand to reduce percent of refusals in delivery of credits.
analysts are assured that the crisis tendency in a segment of retail crediting only will amplify further. “ such rate of a gain ` bad debts ` will remain and in the future as risks in this sector are saved already up “ - the senior analyst of the company " explains; Aton - the Broker “ Rustam Batashev.
the Bank of Russia repeatedly stated concern in growth of risks of non-returns in a segment of retail crediting. In particular, the head of the Central Bank Sergey Ignatyev even has promised " last summer; closely to prosecute this subjects “. However while the regulator could oblige only banks since July, 1st, 2007 to open the effective rate under credits. According to participants of the market, these measures will not correct a situation. “ Receiving the express train - the credit, the person looks not at the rate, and for the sum of monthly payments which to it opens bank, - Anatoly Krajnikov speaks. - At the account of that the technology of sales in banks will not change, borrowers will turn hardly a close attention on the effective rate, and other measures on struggle against Central Bank non-returns yet has not accepted “. “ In Kazakhstan, for example, the effective rate for a long time open, but it has not affected speed of crediting and level of non-returns in any way “ - Rustam Batashev agrees.
Thus the purposes of bankers and the Central Banks initially disperse. “ the purpose of retail activity of bank - not to minimise delay, and to maximise profit at certain level of delay, - Michael Matovnikov speaks. - Sharp reduction of risks can lead to profit reduction. Aim the Central Bank - to minimise risks in bank sector “. Proceeding from it participants of the market do not exclude probability of crisis of non-returns that, the turn, will lead to liquidity crisis in bank sector. “ certainly, it would be desirable to avoid crisis, but I cannot deny its probability, - the mister Komjaginsky of Communication - bank speaks. - I think, all preconditions for its approach in intermediate term prospect are available “.
the Way out, according to analysts, in a diversification of retail business at the expense of less brave segments. “ this tendency has already started to be shown in the market, however effect from it it is necessary to expect only in the long-term future “ - the analyst of agency " believes; Rusrejting “ Victoria Belozerov.