Rus News Journal

“ Sibneft “ the Favorable world conjuncture catches up with leaders

has helped the oil companies to increase capitalisation. A semi-annual piece from the beginning of May on the end of October all companies presented in a rating, have finished in plus. But in October the world prices for oil have slowed down the growth. The given fact immediately has affected the oil companies which actions have ceased to cause an excessive demand in stock market. As a result leaders of a rating LUKOIL and “ Surgutneftegaz “ have considerably lost in capitalisation in relation to September. But if LUKOIL has lost only $3,3 mlrd market cost, “ Surgut “ twice it is more - $6,7 billion
LUKOIL, actually permanent after disorder of YUKOS the owner of the first place in a rating, has managed to settle a question with tax claims for 2002 - 2003 and has voluntary paid $163 million in the budget. Earlier on news about back taxes which have appeared in April, LUKOIL has lost $800 million the cost. At the same time all the October long the oil company was an outstanding public figure in Kazakhstan. LUKOIL intends to spend $2 mlrd for absorption of extracting enterprise Nelson Resorces and has entered judicial lawsuits with Chinese CNPC of a recognition behind the Russian company of the priority right to purchase of share PetroKazakhstan in the joint venture “ Turgaj Petroleum “.
the Second in a rating - “ Surgutneftegaz “. The company declared investment program increase in 2006 with present 57,2 mlrd rbl. to 70 mlrd rbl. and the company has raised the forecast on oil recovery from 66,5 million tons to 67,6 million As a whole has planned moderate growth of extraction. In 2005 “ Surgut “ plans to extract 63,7 million tons of oil (growth on 6,9 %), and in 2006 expects increase in extraction at 6,1 %.
“ Rosneft “ has moved on the third position. The main event for a state company remains coming IPO, preparing to which it has taken the first step and has spent crushing of the actions with factor 100 to 1. By calculations Deloitte and Touche, transition “ Rosneft “ on the uniform action with the branches will actually double company cost - it can reach $50 billion
Besides, in October the Sakhalin projects " have successfully enough proved to be; Rosneft “. Extraction of hydrocarbons within the limits of the project " has begun; Sakhalin - 1 “ where at a state company of 20 %. Predictably, till the end of the year participants of the project will extract 600 thousand tons of oil. Also “ Rosneft “ together with VR have found out oil on licence sites of the project “ Sakhalin - 5 “.
Still “ Rosneft “ plans to increase forthcoming five years extraction volumes practically by 30 %, having finished them more than to 100 million tons a year. Besides it the state company within three years wants to increase annual oil refining on Tuapse NPZ from 4,1 million tons to 12 million, and on Komsomol NPZ - from design 5,9 million tons to 7 million
While “ Rosneft “ monthly overworks about 0,9 million tons of the extracted oil on own NPZ and continues to load raw materials five NPZ YUKOS. If to speak about growth of extraction of a state company this year the company has already lowered own plan from 78 million to 75,3 million tons of oil. Basically it has occurred from - for “ Yuganskneftegaz “ (SHIP`S BOYS) which, it having appeared in structure “ Rosneft “ has ceased to increase extraction. Following the results of January - October of SHIP`S BOYS lags behind last year`s indicators a little, and following the results of a year in it expect extraction growth on 0,4 %.
the multinational corporation - VR from the middle of summer cannot return itself the third line in a rating, though backlog from “ Rosneft “ makes only 0,04 points. Russian - the British company on - former takes the first places on such indicators, as oil recovery in the Russian Federation (taking into account a share in “ Slavneft “) And raw materials export on system “ Transneft “. But the company considerably loses to LUKOIL and “ to Surgut “ in cost (see the table).
the Company has presented new strategy of activity to Russia, intending to concentrate only on large-scale projects, and now considers possibility of sale of some actives: “ Udmurtnefti “ (extracts 5,5 million tons of oil a year), “ Saratovneftegaza “ (1,6 million, Orsk NPZ and “ Orenburgnefteprodukta “ (100 gas stations) own. Together with this Russian - the British company expects decrease in rates of a gain of oil recovery from last year`s 13 % to 6,5 % this year. Among foreign news of the company it is necessary to note its presence at the list of the basic applicants for actions of Lithuanian concern Mazeikiu nafta.
“ Sibneft “ has made in a rating the present jerk as at a company estimation the factor at a rate of 1,3 (see a technique of drawing up of a rating) has been used. Having received in the basic shareholders “ Gazprom “ the oil company has good potential for the further growth, especially in raw materials extraction, where at it obvious problems. But, seemingly, it becomes possible, if “ Sibneft “ will allow to develop oil deposits of gas concern.
in the all-Russian scale after purchase “ Gazprom “ “ Sibneft “ it is possible to speak about a new tendency - strengthening of a role of the state in oil extracting. According to last accessible statistical data for January - October, 2005, the state (through “ Gazprom “ “ Sibneft “ “ Rosneft “ together with SHIP`S BOYS, and also “ Tatneft “ and “ Bashneft “ as a matter of fact being in conducting local authorities) supervises 36 % from extraction total amount.

the YUKOS has stopped extraction falling
“ Tatneft “ heads the list of outsiders of a rating. Backlog of the company from “ Sibneft “ has reached 3,94 points. “ Tatneft “ from - for sales TAIF of property Nizhnekamsk NPZ actually remained without NPZ, except for a minority share in Moscow NPZ. In an active “ Tatneft “ following the results of October it is possible to bring only a victory in auction on development of an oil and gas site in territory of Libya.
the YUKOS has a little corrected the position. At the company capitalisation to $2,5 billion has grown Besides the YUKOS managed to stop extraction falling - basically at the expense of deposits “ Samaraneftegaza “ at which in October on 7 % daily oil recovery has grown. However following the results of a year the company can lose third of last year`s extraction (without SHIP`S BOYS).
At the same time the YUKOS continues to lose actives (sale of the Siberian service company “ Sojuzneftegazu “) And on NPZ, belonging to the company, processing volumes have started to decrease. The YUKOS can lose in the near future one more large active - East - the Siberian oil and gas company, and together with it the licence for development of Jurubcheno - the Tohomsky deposit (Evenkija).
“ Bashneft “ has managed to add in a rating on news that in first quarter 2006 AFK “ System “ intend to create on the basis of actives Bashkir TEKa vertically integrated company. Then transfer of the Bashkir enterprises into the uniform action should take place.
SIMONENKO`S NOVEL, “ Interfax - ANI “ for

the Rating of the oil companies for October

Export on “ Transneft “ in the far abroad (million

the Source: GP TSDU thermal power station.

Oil refining in Russia (million

*Ń the account of deliveries on Moscow NPZ.
the Source: GP TSDU thermal power station.

capitalisation of the largest petrocompanies

*Ņīšćīāė’ securities “ Rosneft “ and the multinational corporation - VR in RTS is not conducted, the data of calculations of experts is presented. An estimation “ Rosneft “ it is presented with the account “ Yuganskneftegaz “.
the Source: GP TSDU thermal power station.

oil recovery to Russia (million)

*Ń the account “ Slavneft “.
the Source: GP TSDU thermal power station.

the general information on a technique
the Problem of the rating made by experts of Agency of the oil information (ANI), - to facilitate perception investors and the situation public in oil branch, having defined most dynamically developing oil companies.
As it is known, the most obvious information for the analysis of any company its financial indicators are. But because of the limited availability of this data, and also considering considerable divergences of the Russian standards of the financial reporting with international, in a basis of the given rating the method of comparison of objective indicators which allows to estimate activity various NK in a certain time interval is put. As the basic criteria for an estimation of the companies four indicators (three base and one market) have been accepted: market cost (capitalisation) NK, oil export, oil recovery, processing.
considering that we have selected for an estimation of the companies at once some criteria, some of which are incommensurable, there is a problem of ordering of criteria by their ranging, tasks of priorities or weight factors (Kv). In our case the experts TEKa interrogated by agency have appropriated to indicators of activity of the companies a number of factors.
Kv (export) = 0,33
Kv (extraction) = 0,29
Kv (processing) = 0,22
Kv (capitalisation) = 0,16
the Analysis of the above-stated indicators will allow to draw a conclusion on profitableness and stability of work of the oil companies. However in modern conditions in-Russian oil business nevertheless has the certain instability connected with a political situation in the country, with periodic change of tax laws, kvotirovaniem export of oil and etc. Besides, the domestic oil branch continues to be under pressure from external factors (cost of oil and oil products in the world market, actions of the countries of the OPEC). In this connection in the given technique the risk factor (Kr) which defines dependence of activity of the oil company on environment is entered. The size of Kr is defined by experts of agency and varies from 0 to 1.
the Total estimation of each company pays off by summation of settlement indicators of its activity taking into account weight factors. The offered rating allows to demonstrate overall performance of the basic oil companies in dynamics and for the certain period of time.