Where the Russian oilthe Western countries leaves the thesis that export of the Russian and near-Caspian oil should become alternative to oil deliveries with become suddenly politically astable Near East and first of all from Muslim member countries of the OPEC moves ahead. Meanwhile without the answer, and simply forgotten, there is a burning question about economic efficiency of oil Russian export. And whether there are at it alternatives.
extraction will grow
Most actually words about necessity of change of suppliers of oil after August, 11th, 2001 sounded. Then strikes in Venezuela and Nigeria, a tsunami in Jugo - East Asia, flooding in Europe, hurricanes in the USA, fault of deliveries of oil from Gulf of Mexico and much, many other things have followed war in Iraq. All it promoted incessant growth of the world prices for oil. It would seem, the current situation with the world prices should affect the positive image the Russian economy as a whole and especially on development of the enterprises of oil sector.
it is already clear that export of the Russian oil it is obedient follows development of the basic export capacities, and oil recovery basically reflects development of its export and internal sales, that is is inevitably focused on real possibilities of its sale. Under the forecast of the Center of oil and gas business, the general national export of oil and a gas condensate for limits of the former USSR can increase from 4,2 million bar./ days (208 million tons a year) last year to 8,8 million bar./ days (440 million tons a year) in 2012. Thus oil recovery in Russia in 2012 (including a gas condensate) can exceed 14 million bar./ days (700 million tons) in comparison with 9,23 million bar./ days (459 million) in 2004. We will notice that in the end of 80 - h years Russia extracted 11,5 million bar./ days (Over 570 million tons a year).
As it is known, about half of extracted oil on - former goes for export to not processed kind - basically on the markets of the Western Europe. According to 2004, in Russia it was processed less than 4 million barrels of oil a day, or a little more than 42 % of the extracted oil because its export was always represented to more effective.
on the other hand if to consider a question of efficiency of sales of oil last years there is paradoxical enough situation: the above the world prices for oil, the more tax withdrawals at the oil companies and the less corresponding rate of return. Naturally, oil companies aspire to compensate the half-received profit (and sometimes and a loss) at the expense of a rise in prices in the home market, which Russian consumers are ready to pay in connection with absence of alternative.
cheap “ Friendship “
the Existing market tendency has found reflexion in researches of YOKES “ Petromarket “ according to which on the fourth quarter 2004 average incomes at export of the Russian oil made following sizes: at export through ports of Baltic (including port Primorsk located in Leningrad region) - $1,2 for barrel, at export through ports of Black sea - $2,1, and at export on the oil pipeline “ Friendship “ - only $0,8. At the same time processing of the West Siberian oil, for example, on Bashkir NPZ on davalcheskoj to the scheme brought the companies - pererabotchiku the income at a rate of $6,8 for barrel.
in turn, by estimates of KA “ Petrostar “ on the data of international agency Argus Media, the most profitable in the last quarter of last year deliveries of the Russian oil in " were based; duty-free “ Belarus and through port of Tuapse, and also oil refining with the subsequent delivery of oil products both to home market, and in the countries of the Customs union (HARDWARE) uniting now Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kirghizia. So, average efficiency (the relation of aggregate profits to expenses for extraction, processing - if it took place - and oil delivery, including all taxes and tariffs) made, by data “ Petrostar “ 87 % on Belarus, over 52 % on Tuapse and 80 % on in-Russian oil refining and the further deliveries of oil products in the HARDWARE countries.
it and is clear. We will tell, why so deliveries of the Russian oil to Belarus and through Tuapse are effective? Because the considerable part of that our oil industry workers can receive, here is not eaten by the high export duty for exported oil and the prices for easy Siberian oil considerably above that it is possible to receive for our traditional mix Urals which goes on all other ports. And why so oil export on " modestly looks; to Friendship “ or through Primorsk though oil industry workers continue to use these directions actively? Again - taki because on “ to Friendship “ all shakes the same Urals, and on Primorsku (especially in the winter) eats unreasonably expensive freight much... And as to these “ popular “ for export of the Russian oil of directions here much depends on a policy and from what direction the same can allocate “ Transneft “ in the answer even on the timely demand for oil export... And at last, why in the last quarter of last year it was more favourable to process the Russian oil and to deliver the oil products received from it, say, on home market, to Belarus or to Kazakhstan? Yes because here it is not necessary to be spent for oil transportation almost and export of oil products to these countries (members of the HARDWARE) is free from the customs duties and also because the internal prices for gasoline so are high - and it is not important, as they are established or restrain.
Besides, it is important to mean that the situation with economy of the Russian oil constantly changes, and that was bad or good one year ago, it can appear absolutely other, say, in the last quarter of this year. And still for many oil and investment companies a question - what to do with the Russian oil? - Remains opened.
exists Now a number of forecasts of the prices for oil (and even on some oil products) which can be used for definition of prospects of development of the oil companies or an estimation of oil investment projects. On occasion the oil companies are compelled even to build the forecasts or to resort for these purposes to quotations “ long “ futures for oil. The centre of oil and gas business and agency “ Petrostar “ have developed own techniques which allow users to receive an independent estimation of efficiency of various accessible directions of realisation of the Russian oil: model of the world oil market “ Trajdent “ predicting the world prices (including the prices on Urals), and model of the domestic oil market “ Petrorus “ predicting the prices of home market for oil and the basic oil products.
“ Trajdent “ in particular, for the analysis uses such factors as export of liquid fuel from the countries of the former USSR, growth of GNP of industrially developed states, the world price for coal and political instability around Persian gulf, and can predict the world prices for fuel on 10 - 15 years forward. For example, one of the most probable scenarios on this model says that nominal prices on Urals by deliveries on the terms of CIF in port Augusta (Southern Europe) will make to $2018 36,6 for barrel.
model “ Petrorus “ uses such factors as growth of gross national product of Russia, level of its oil extracting and the basic capacities on export of oil from Russia, and can predict the prices of home market for ten years forward. So, for example, according to one of the accepted scenarios, the average price for the West Siberian oil (including the VAT) will grow by 2018 to $30,9 for barrel against $21,4 in 2004.
Elena STAROSTIN, agency “ Petrostar “; EVGENIE HARTUKOV, the Center of oil and gas business