The question pricethe Present summit of the CIS should become rotary in the history of Post-Soviet commonwealth. Anyway, Moscow very counts on it. Turn, most likely, really will occur. However, it can quite appear, what not in that party in what it would be desirable for Moscow.
henceforth Russia wants to build relations with the partners in the CIS absolutely on - to other. The essence of the new approach is simple. That states CIS that will agree to remain in an orbit of the Russian influence, will have from it considerable economic dividends, say, in the form of cheap energy carriers or arms systems. The same former Soviet republics that will want to be guided by the West, should prepare for unpleasant consequences in the form of deprivation and that and another.
differently, in the CIS (or at least on its part) Russia is ready to pay for preservation of the influence generously. And behind the price that is called, will not stand.
this logic at first sight rather convincing. After all economic interests hardly probable not the strongest, and so, and levers of economic influence should be the most effective.
however all it is true only partly. First of all on any economic influence there can be an effective counteraction.
we will tell, if Russia raises to heavens of the price on delivered in “ orange “ Ukraine energy carriers, there will fly up also the prices for transit to Europe through the Ukrainian territory of the Russian oil and gas. In general to block “ power oxygen “ to the obstinate partner Moscow too cannot: then without the Russian oil and gas there will be Europe which for certain not begins to be idle.
Besides, the economy, as it is known, is inseparable from a policy. Moscow can put billions dollars in support of this or that mode in territory of the CIS, but political stability or a survival to it it yet does not guarantee. If speech, certainly, goes about any odious mode which keeps exclusively on reprisals and heterodoxy suppression, - those on the post-Soviet territory to find simply. To believe in the return would mean for Moscow to walk twice into the same water, which in the past painfully struck time and again Soviet Union. Many modes, which USSR supported, vbuhivaja in them huge means (through the same oil and arms), were scattered as a house of cards.
authoritative governors on the post-Soviet territory, certainly, with pleasure will accept the Russian help. Will regularly swear to Moscow unconditional love and eternal friendship. But when will punch their hour and under them the presidential armchair will reel, these governors will be ready to do anything to be kept in power. Including on the transaction with the West behind the back of Russia. Such too time and again happened - both in near, and in distant our abroad.
Eventually if economic levers all solved Russia being in hands, the outcome of last presidential election in Ukraine for certain would be other.