Rus News Journal

Change of recommendations

Analysts IK the Three Dialogue have raised fair stock value GMK Norilsk nickel from $180 to $190. The recommendation to buy is left without change. It has grown out of increase of forecasts of the prices for nickel. we raise the forecast of the prices of nickel for 2006 - 2008 in view of improvement of fundamental indicators of the market: in - the first, demand for stainless steel and accordingly on nickel, and in - the second grows, its offer can appear insufficient - analysts have noted. The average price of ton of nickel for 2006 has been raised about $19,8 thousand to $24,0 thousand, for 2007 - about $17,5 thousand to $25 thousand, and for 2008 - about $15 thousand to $20 thousand According to last estimations of the International institute of iron and a steel (IISI), the world volume of output of stainless steel in 2006 will grow more than on 14 %. At the same time, under forecasts of experts, nickel extraction for this period will grow at the best on 4 - 5 %. According to analysts, the situation essentially will not change at least before the second half of the year 2007. Thus warehouse stocks of nickel on London Metal Exchange are at level of all $5,5 thousand t that makes only two - three days of world industrial consumption. the further concentration of manufacture together with delays in realisation of large-scale projects of extraction of nickel ores can aggravate deficiency - analysts consider. Thus they had been lowered intermediate term forecasts of the prices for copper. However analysts do not exclude that decrease in quotations grows out of sale of a part of warehouse stocks, instead of a consequence of fundamental increase in the offer. And in this case prospects for 2007 look more optimistically. we adhere to the careful approach and we do not expect a fast turn of quotations of copper - analysts have noted. Also in an estimation the contribution of the nickel actives got by the company at American OMG that promises " is considered; to Norilsk nickel growth of cost and sinergetichesky effect.
analyst IK Brokerkreditservis Vyacheslav Zhabin ( to buy, $174) considers that as a result the company will receive acquisitions OM Group in addition 35 - 40 thousand t nickel in a year that will bring in addition the companies of $1 mlrd gains . Simultaneously Norilsk nickel will receive also a number of actives OM Group, in particular factory on nickel refinement in Finland. as a result of this purchase the company ` Norilsk nickel ` will get access to technology of processing lateritnoj ores which it had no earlier. As a result the company can expand acquisition geography for the account lateritnyh deposits - the analyst has noted.

according to analyst IFK Solid Igor Nuzhdina ( to hold , $153), growth of demand for metal from manufacturers of cars can lead to deficiency of metal in 15 thousand volume t. At the same time, according to an analyst, next year growth of manufacture of nickel at the expense of input in a system new lateritnyh capacities is possible. Now Norilsk nickel makes metal from sulphitic ore that manages to it cheaply enough. Manufacture of nickel from lateritnoj ores zatratnee, than from sulphitic ($15 thousand for ton against $5 thousand for ton), and technologically more difficult. if in 2007 of the company actively will start to maintain lateritnye deposits as a result the market can be sated and the prices will fall to $20 - 25 thousand for ton, - the analyst has noted. - below the price hardly will go, as in this case manufacture appears unprofitable .

This material has exclusively information character and cannot be considered as the invitation or prompting to get or sell securities.