The market of currency bonds
Unfortunately, the gloomy forecasts stated in the previous review, completely have proved to be true. Under arrest there were currency bonds 4 - go and 5 - go tranches for the $56,8 million sum face value. From the received blow last week the market “ vebovok “ and has not recovered. Hardly something will change and within the next few days: at the Russian dealers the train of holidays approaches, and their American colleagues will choose the president. Whether before work?
the Message about arrest of new large party of currency bonds began to extend Friday before last. The first impression of brokers - the misinformation undertaken for speculation for the fall, but on the sly dealers nevertheless have started to close long positions.
meanwhile the Tagansky interdistrict Office of Public Prosecutor that day has really seized ill-starred bonds. And when doubts of dealers have definitively vanished (it has occurred on Friday evening), from falling nobody could keep the market. Naturally, first of all have departed 4 - j and 5 - j tranches - on 2 - 2,5 points. Extremely - to 1 % of face value - spreads have increased. Trade almost has completely stopped. Many Russian banks simply have left from the market, and those who remained, exposed quotations through the London broker offices.
to the middle of week when all a little bit adapted in the new conditions, some banks (mainly western as Russian on - former preferred a role of the observer) have tried to go a bull. However, though they also managed to raise on 1 point 4 - j and 5 - j tranches, the initiative has not been supported, and by Friday of the quotation have returned to former values. Least bonds 3 - go a tranche have appeared victims in this history. Their quotations though have given, but is not so strong. As a whole have born blow and bonds 6 - go and 7 - go tranches, however trade in these papers is conducted incidentally and not always reflects the general movement of the market.
traders in conditions “ dead “ the market had a good time, frightening each other of every possible hearings how police officers ransack on banks and withdraw the arrested bonds from their owners as material evidences. Actually it did not occur: bonds were on the blocked accounts in depozitarii Vneshtorgbanka. As a whole the effect from arrest was less destructive, than last time, in June of this year. Partly it is possible to explain it to that the frozen bonds have appeared are in regular intervals smeared on the market, and one large western bank has strongly suffered only. At arrest of the first party “ vebovok “ has not carried at once to several big banks.
forthcoming week hardly it is possible to expect radical changes in a situation in the market of currency bonds. Holidays will not add activity to the Russian dealers, and their American colleagues will be anxious more likely by own presidential election. At the same time the Russian financial authorities yet do not undertake any actions though in private conversations representatives of the Ministry of Finance declared that the situation is attentively studied. However, it is possible to expect that if not till holidays so after all of them - taki certain official statements will follow, and can be, and more cardinal decisions. So, past Monday the date started of presentation of the Russian eurobonds - has been again confirmed on November, 11th. And in the permission of a situation with arrested persons “ vebovkami “ the Russian financial authorities are interested to the greatest degree.