“ Today it is necessary to risk nevertheless less “
Interview to the head of division of global investment strategy HSBC Private Bank Fredrikom Nerbrandom
Against gradual restoration from consequences of world financial crisis the economy of Russia becomes more and more attractive to the western financial companies. The sights at where and as now it is necessary to put up money, the head of division of global investment strategy HSBC Private Bank of FREDRIK nerbrand has shared with the correspondent daily EVGENIE BASMANOVYM.
- What lessons HSBC Private Bank has taken from crisis 2009?
- Difficult was not only last, but also 2008. We have tried to change a little mentality of our clients, having suggested them to think non-standard. Bolshinst in private investors usually buy, when all is good, and sell, when all falls. Such approach has given us and our clients confidence that many actives are underestimated. Thus, since March of last year when all tried to sell, we were focused on risk purchase in the relation as actions, and bonds. And still to that we have learnt, and it concerns not only to HSBC, but also all industry, - to consider the risks connected with partners.
- whether any clients of bank have lost money for a pyramid of mister Medoffa?
- basically it there were clients who wanted to invest, without having followed our council. This event has affected us only partly: we were depozitarnym bank for one fund which has been connected with a pyramid.
- that you can tell about the state intervention in economy? How estimate recent attempts of US authorities and Europe to enter various restrictions on activity of banks, in particular taxes to bonuses and the offer of US president Barack Obama to divide commercial and investment activity of banks?
- I Will tell only that from the investment point of view restriction of the size of the American bank will lead to that he will aspire to develop in other countries. It will lead to buying up attempt by the American banks of their competitors from developing countries. From the point of view of profit it is better to have banks in emerging markets, than, say, in Europe.
- attempts of the European and American authorities concerning bank secret of Switzerland are how much serious? How long she will manage to hold on?
- Here much is not clear. Many countries have the big budgeted deficit which needs to be financed, and they will more aggressively try to find all sources for this purpose.
- How you helped the clients to keep and increase cost of actives?
- If to look at the beginning of 2009, say, for January we said that a situation the cash corrects and it is necessary to minimise the risks. However the liquidity which has appeared in the market, has allowed us to become buyers of debts, in particular corporate bonds, and in March - already and actions. Council which we gave to the clients last year: you can incur risks. Today our position is a little more careful. We focus them on the concept growth, instead of on value. Also we recommend to clients to reap the fruits from investments into the Chinese companies and to buy the American.
- where now it is possible to achieve an excellent gain of the capital, especially without risking?
- last year we bought IT - the companies, the Chinese actions, put in emerging markets, including Brazil, got the small companies. In general invested there where the high risks assuming high growth have been concentrated. Today we buy the American companies, even in spite of the fact that the forecast across the USA, we will tell so, ambiguous. From the economic point of view we consider that the American companies are valuable enough, in particular, it concerns public health services sphere, and also to the companies rendering utilities. These are the companies with a small share of extra means, small risk of refinancing and high dividendnym the income. Earlier the sense was in acceptance of risky decisions, today it is necessary to risk nevertheless less.
- As far as I understand, BRICK is a question mainly of the countries. And whether your clients in any developing countries, like Mexico, Indonesia which in the same way show excellent dynamics in stock market invest?
- Yes. In long-term prospect BRICK and emerging markets really have good prospects. The economic forecast for the nearest three - five years optimistical. And to it there are quite certain reasons: the high demographic potential, the limited public debt, a strong financial system, and also high level of investments and consumption. While with all it the order, in the world will be many people, wishing to invest in these markets. At the same time growth, and change of thinking of people is important not simply. For example, if you look at the Chinese actions, on the companies bargaining in Shanghai, that, agrees a consensus - to the forecast, they have growth prospect this year of 83 %. We consider this forecast too optimistical. That is from the economic point of view of their prospect are rather positive, however from the investment party they not best of - for an overheat.
- we have mentioned China. There is an opinion that is the country which has worried crisis with the least losses. Whether it is possible to tell the same and about other countries BRICK?
- Is not present. China has spent more than someone, for the state support within 2008-2009 concerning the sizes of gross national product. China was in favourable position as has managed to keep cost of the currency on a low level. It means that it has got competitive advantages which have helped it to be restored faster, than another.
- your clients for certain have multiple currency contributions. In your opinion that it is better: dollar, euro, yen?
- the Special difference is not present. All of them are subject to identical risks, the public debt at all is similar. In the short-term period (three - six months) at us “ bull “ a sight at dollar, well and in long-term prospect this position not so such strong. The currency market is more interesting from the point of view kerri - a trade. And it is emerging markets with such highly remunerative currencies, as the Brazilian real, Indian rupee, Turkish lyre, but not pound, dollar, euro or yen. Fredrik Nerbrand , 35 years, has begun career in Swedbank, also conducted the column in business papers. Then worked in the small company, giving analytical reports operating actives of large funds. The post of the strategist on placing of actives in JP Morgan Private Bank became the following step. In HSBC Private Bank g - n Nerbrand has come in 2005, at first having occupied a post of the head of division of the British investment strategy. Has degrees of the bachelor and the master of economic sciences and business - administrations of Lundsky university (Sweden).