The pent-up demand for bankers
crediting growth will be modest
this year banks the increase in demand at consumer credits which was postponed in connection with decrease in incomes of the population and uncertainty of consumers concerning the further financial position wait. Participants of the market speak about moderate growth of mortgaging crediting and are going to increase volumes of short and small credits. To involve means of the population they intend not less actively, than last year, but high rates under deposits any more do not promise. Rates will continue slow decrease and can quite fall to 6-8 % on rouble programs for a period of one year, experts consider.
considerable growth of the market of consumer crediting this year will not occur, as for banks very actual there is a problem bad debts and necessity of creation under them of reserves. Group economist UK finam Management Alexander Osin also notices that negative dynamics of a labour market for the present remains, and the rate of unemployment remains high enough. the total volume of portfolios of credits to physical persons in bank sector has considerably decreased for 2009. It was promoted by growth of unsettled debts and toughening of credit conditions. It is obvious that systematic restoration of economy and growth of solvency of citizens will promote increase in demand at many kinds of credit products - the head of department of development of bank BFA Nelli Hrykova marks.
According to the general director of the Petersburg branch of bank Sosete Zheneral the East Elenas Shevelevoj, first of all it is necessary to expect moderate growth of intermediate term mortgaging crediting and first of all increase in volumes of crediting at purchase of cars. And mortgage growth happens, as soon as lifting in the building industry will begin. Already now banks receive more demands for mortgage loans. Demand for a mortgage from the middle of last year has increased approximately by 30 % if to look by quantity of demands, the chief of department of development of Sankt - the Petersburg mortgage agency Sergey Milyutin marks.
revival of the market and demand for credits should promote softening of credit conditions and decrease in rates. The trend on depreciation of bank credits was outlined in last year under the influence of softening credit - the monetary policy of Bank of Russia, decrease in inflation, competition strengthening in bank sphere and reduction of investment and macroeconomic risks and will proceed in first half of 2010, Alexander Osin marks. In its opinion, under consumer loans of the rate can fall to 17-21 % annual.
rates on a mortgage can fall to 11 %, the managing director of branch marks the Absolute of Bank in St.-Petersburg Vitaly Demidov. This year it is not necessary to wait for aggressive increase in volumes of delivery of credits, as banks will fight first of all for quality of portfolios.
in the market of deposits of private clients decrease in rates also will proceed that hardly will please investors. this tendency will proceed all year - the manager on advertising of the Petersburg branch of bank " marks; East express train Julia Vlasenko. As she said, the general inflow of money resources from the population, undoubtedly, will grow, but is not so prompt, as it was last year. Look-ahead rates of a gain of a depositary portfolio of bank East express train will be not so high, as in previous years, but the given indicator will be not less than 10 %, marks g - zha Vlasenko.
Considering current rather low rate of inflation, average bank depositary rates can decrease still approximately on 3-4 % annual, Alexander Osin predicts.