Russia promises grain mountains
In 15 years crops in Russia will be on 50-60 % above
the Ministry of Agriculture for a long time already speaks about plans of increase in manufacture of grain in Russia by 2020 to 120-140 million t. The Russian grain union (RZS) has developed the concept of development of the grain market, calculated on 15 years. The union believes that as a result of realisation of the concept mid-annual total gathering of grain will make 145-155 million t against 97 million t last year, and export - 40-60 million t.
to achieve such results, productivity of grain crops (without corn) should make not less than 30 ts/ hectare. Thus areas under crops under grain crops are necessary for increasing to 50 million in hectare. RZS counts that the volume of mortgaging operations will be widely adopted also their volume will make from 15 million to 30 million t depending on market condition and requirement of manufacturers for credit resources. This tool under the law on agriculture already now can be used, but the mechanism of its application while only is studied.
program RZS has appeared more ambitious, than at the Ministry of Agriculture. In the middle of March department has presented at session of agrarian committee of the State Duma the project of the concept of development of an infrastructure and logistical maintenance of the grain market of Russia for 2011-2020. In the document it is said that total gathering grain by 2020 will reach in Russia of 135 million t, the export potential is estimated in 45-50 million t, and productivity - 26,5 ts/ hectare. Under the ministry forecast, areas under crops under the grain will reach 51 million in hectare. For comparison: in 2009 by grain crops it has been sowed almost 48 million in hectare from which it has been collected 97 million t at productivity 22,7 ts/ hectare.
The Increase in areas under crops to 50 million in hectare is quite achievable, but thus increase of average productivity to 30 ts/ hectare raises the doubts, the chief executive of the analytical centre " speaks; Sovekon “ Andrey Sizov - younger. “ in case of achievement of the declared indicator on productivity Russia catches up with the USA, where an agriculture level of development essentially other “ - the expert marks. In the USA and the European Union productivity last years makes 30-35 ts/ hectare and from above 50 ts/ hectare accordingly. And in 10-15 years productivity can grow still, believes g - n Sizov.
Besides, experts have a question connected with maintenance of domestic agricultural manufacturers by modern technics and seeds. Taking into account all these factors achievement specified RZS productivity indicators looks unduly optimistically.
Russia has considerable potential for export of the grain, but this potential rests against not developed infrastructure and the limited possibilities of the world market to accept such volumes. Last years the largest world exporters of the USA and the European Union annually sell in the world market only wheat on 25-35 million and 18-25 million t accordingly. Besides the USA annually export a 45-60 million order t corn. There are also other aggressive exporters - Ukraine and Kazakhstan interested in escalating of export of grain, adds g - n Sizov.