Rus News Journal

Optimism explosion

the Star of the Russian economy will begin to shine this year more brightly others

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch has raised the forecast of growth of Russian gross national product with 5 to 7 % this year. Sharply growing demand for raw materials and aspiration of the companies to stabilise industrial stocks will lead to that the Russian economy will be allocated to the best against others, experts predict. So iridescent forecasts are premature, opponents consider: investment activity on - former languid, and such important engine of economy as crediting, revolves.

Dear oil and restoration of industrial stocks help to pull out the Russian economy from the worst since disintegration of the USSR by pique, is told in report BofA published yesterday - Merrill Lynch. the Economy of the biggest in the world of the supplier of energy will grow this year on 7 % - the head of department of emerging markets BofA David Honor has declared. This forecast above previous on 2 %. However it is impossible to count that Russian promproizvodstvo will reach pre-crisis peak before the first quarter 2011, it is told in the report.

if to clear figures of seasonal prevalence factors, in the first quarter the Russian gross national product has already grown on 6,5 % to the last quarter 2009 - go if to look year by a year on 7 %, have counted up in BofA. export will be the restoration Driver first of all, - is assured g - n by Honor. - And only in the second half of the year we expect notable growth of internal consumption which will be caused by reduction of unemployment, inflations and growth of salaries .

the Main subject of the Russian export - oil of mark Urals has risen in price from the crisis beginning for 97 %. Oil rise in price on 1 % stimulates gross national product growth on 0,1 % in the first year and adds on 0,1 % next five years. 30 - percentage growth of the price for oil adds on 3 % to gross national product growth in the first year and 6 more % next six years (on 1 % a year), is told in the report.

low inflation (by calculations BofA, it will make following the results of 2010 6 %) can push the Central Bank to decrease in the rate of refinancing with present 8,25 to 6,5 %, and crediting volumes in the second half of the year will grow on third, predict in BofA. Growth of investments in the second half of the year will reach 50 % in annual calculation.

so iridescent forecasts are premature, the senior analyst IK " considers; the Three Dialogue Anton Struchenevsky. We do not see the bases to reconsider our forecast concerning growth of the Russian economy - leave 5 % of gross national product, - he speaks. - statistics for the first quarter muffled: The technique of calculation of many important indicators has been reconsidered by Rosstatom, meanwhile old numbers are not counted - accordingly, some time we will be in statistical vacuum without accurate representation that occurs .

Indirect signs, for example dynamics of building, allow to assume that investment activity on - former very languid, speaks the expert Three . Crediting revolves - bank rates on - former are very high. possibly, the Central Bank nevertheless will lower the rate of refinancing to 6,5-7 %, - predicts g - n Struchenevsky. - But money will come to economy with some log, and it is not necessary to wait for fast restoration .

Forecasts of growth of Russian gross national product in 2010, %
Ministry of economic development and trade 3,1
Citigroup 3
Goldman Sachs 4,5
the World bank

5 - 5,5

UBS 5,5
BofA Merrill Lynch 7
the Source: The MAYOR, the World bank, forecasts of the companies